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000
FXUS65 KPIH 220843
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
243 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night.
Throughout Monday we will remain in northwest flow aloft with weak
high pressure ridging to our west. This will keep us dry throughout
the day with afternoon highs about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday.
For the Magic Valley and Snake Plain, expect highs in the low to mid
60s. As you head into some of the higher elevations, highs will be
in the low to mid 50s. We stay breezy today, too, with gusts 20 to
35 mph. As we get into Tuesday, troughing off of the West Coast
develops into a closed low. Models are showing this
troughing/eventual low to be just strong enough to bring some
moisture our way late Tuesday into Wednesday, though PoPs are only
around 20 percent for Tuesday PM with pockets of QPF only up to
0.05 inches in parts of the Southern Hills and southeastern
Highlands. We`ll start to warm on Tuesday, too, with highs
returning to the mid and upper 60s. AMM

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.
Upper trough will begin to dig into the northern Great Basin on
Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday look to be about 10
degrees above normal. A cold front will arrive late afternoon into
Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front. Chances for rain look best across the eastern
highlands on Thursday as we may see a downslope effect off the
central mountains across much of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
However by Friday, the main upper low will arrive and produce
widespread precipitation into Saturday. Temperatures with this low
aren`t too cold with highs near or slightly below normal. As a
result, snow levels should be around 7000 feet for this event.
Model consensus shows the low moving east on Sunday with drier
weather possible Sunday into Monday. Although about 60% of models
try to bring a weaker low back into the region for Tuesday. 13


&&

.AVIATION...Expect breezy conditions this afternoon with numerous
gusts to 25kts. Once again, KSUN will likely see gusts to 20kts with
some form of westerly component attached to it, resulting in a
crosswind this afternoon. Plenty of mid to high level moisture
streaming through the region today, but ceilings should remain
vfr. 13


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No major changes in hydro forecasts at this time.
Water levels on the Portneuf river continue to run high, just
below moderate flood stage for the Portneuf river in Pocatello.
The river forecast for the Portneuf river in Pocatello shows the
river running above flood stage for the foreseeable future and
likely climbing back to moderate flood stage in a few days. At
Topaz, levels remain and are forecast to remain very near minor
flood stage. Levels are forecast to slowly rise towards the end of
this next week with warming temperatures through Wednesday and
the return of precipitation chances in the second half of the
week. McKaughan/Moore


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$