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000
FXUS65 KPUB 142341
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions remain possible through this
  evening for the San Luis Valley, and El Paso and Pueblo
  counties.

- Higher end critical fire weather day on Monday, with wind
  gusts up to around 55 mph and RH values in the single digits.

- Wind gusts approaching 60 mph along with critical fire
  weather conditions are possible on Tuesday.

- Critical to near critical ire weather conditions will impact
  the portions of the region through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures are in place
this afternoon, with the highest temperatures well into the 80s
occurring across the southeast plains. While this is supporting
minimum RH values in the single digits over a good portion of
southern Colorado, winds have not been overly strong today given
a more relaxed surface pattern. Winds have been occasionally
gusting in the 30-35 mph range across portions of the I-25
corridor and San Luis Valley, where the current Red Flag Warning
is in place. Think similar conditions will continue into early
evening, and have not made any changes to the Warning at this
time.

Will see current upper level low over the western CONUS
approach tonight into Monday, reaching the western half of
Colorado by the afternoon time frame. This will bring increasing
cloud cover and chances for showers across mainly the
Continental Divide, increasing winds to much of southern
Colorado, and some slightly cooler air. Highest chances for rain
and snow will be later in the afternoon, though any snowfall
amounts will be light and confined to the higher peaks. Did
lower temperatures slightly for Monday, but with above normal
temperatures still expected over much of southern Colorado. With
a very dry air mass still in place, expect RH values to once
again fall well into the single digits. This warm air with very
dry conditions combined with increasing southwest winds, will
support another day of high fire danger. While the RH values are
concerning, the winds will be as well as gusts will easily
approach 50 to 55 mph during the afternoon time frame. Kept
gusts just under 60 mph, but would not be surprised to see a few
gusts up to 60 mph late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will still be in place Monday
evening, especially across the plains. While confidence is
somewhat lower, there is the possibility for another surge of
stronger winds/gusts right at the start of the period Monday
evening. If this were to occur, the gusts up to 60 mph that will
be possible during the day will remain possible during that
time. Improving trend then expected for the remainder of Monday
evening, with no changes made the Red Flag Warning end time at
this time. The upper level system is then expected to move
across Colorado Monday night into Tuesday morning. With winds
shifting more to the west northwest on the backside of the
system and with moisture increasing, should see continued snow
development across the central mountains. Accumulating snow is
expected but have not issued any winter headlines at this time.

Conditions should remain dry elsewhere across the area Monday
night into Tuesday, however, some possibility for some
additional showers to move across the Pikes Peak region and
Palmer Divide as winds veer during that time. Didn`t really
adjust pops too much at this time given some model variability
but if precip were to occur, think impacts would be on the lower
side given the relatively warmer conditions in place. Strong
flow pushing overhead on the backside of this system will
support another day of strong winds on Tuesday. Have not issued
any wind headlines at this time, but winds could easily gust up
to around 60 mph on Tuesday. Also, think there could be another
day with critical fire weather conditions, especially across the
southern I-25 corridor. It is possible that higher dew point
air works it way further south behind a front on Tuesday and
with this possibility, have not issued any fire weather
headlines at this time. Will see another warm up coupled with
high fire danger on Wednesday, before cooler temps and
increasing chances for precip arrive late in the week into the
start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Gusty southerly winds will diminish by 01-02z with generally
light diurnally driven winds overnight. Winds will increase out
of the southwest on Monday with gusts in the 35 to 45 kt range
by afternoon. The strongest winds will be at KALS. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ220-224.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-
226>228.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for COZ221-222-
225>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...KT