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000
FXUS65 KRIW 251728
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1128 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread the
  state today. Best chances for accumulation remain across
  western WY.

- Second system moves across the state later Friday and
  continues through the weekend. Ample rainfall accumulations
  for lower elevations and some snow accumulations at highest
  mountain peaks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The midlevel trough continues to push inland across the Four
Corners Region, and will sweep across Colorado this evening.
This will draw a cold front southeastward across the state
today, bringing some sfc focus to the increased moisture across
the state. Widespread showers will continue across the state,
with some embedded thunder at times this afternoon. Best rain
accumulations will be across the western portions this
afternoon.

Friday the trough will be deepening across the Northern Plains,
keeping the ample moisture wrapped around the backside across
WY. The next trough will be dropping in from the NW across the
northern Rockies, bringing another batch of instability. Models
continue bring better precipitation amounts across the state due
to multiple lifting mechanisms, but with some deviation in
models on overall precip amounts and trouble with the previous
several storms, have kept some of the highest QPF amounts in
check for the state. Still expecting at least a half inch of
rain for all locations except the Bighorn Basin and Johnson
County, with areas of central WY likely seeing around 1 inch by
late Sunday. Snowfall amounts remain adequate for the higher
elevations, with highest accumulation remaining limited to the
highest elevations of the Winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals.

Terminals to generally remain VFR through the forecast period.
Extensive cloud cover, with brief MVFR ceilings, over northwest
Wyoming late this morning should hinder destabilization around KJAC
this afternoon. As a result, have opted to avoid any TS mention at
KJAC. However to the south where sunshine has been prevalent this
morning, showers and a few thunderstorms were already erupting at
17Z/Thursday. This convection should move northeast through the
southwest terminals between 20Z-23Z. Brief MVFR is possible along
with erratic gusts 25-35kts. Mid-cloud decks remain overnight,
although there is a 30-50 percent chance of MVFR ceilings at KJAC
between 06Z-12Z/Friday. Mountain tops frequently obscured.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals.

The first round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is lifting
into northern Wyoming late Thursday morning. Clearing behind this
wave will allow for destabilization and redevelopment of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Additional
convection over southwest Wyoming moves into the region late in the
afternoon. Have generally opted for short TS TEMPO groups between
about 22Z-02Z with erratic wind gusts 25-35kts the primary hazard.
Lingering light showers persist until 06Z/Friday. Mid-cloud decks
give way to lowering MVFR ceilings at KCOD around 10Z and eventually
KWRL at 14Z as northerly surface flow strengthens. Other terminals
to remain VFR through 12Z/Friday with possible localized MVFR after
14Z. Mountain tops frequently obscured after 10Z/Friday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...CNJ