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000
FXUS61 KRLX 121826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery and breezy through the day today. Heavy rain from
yesterday continues to yield high water issues today. Quiet for
Saturday into Sunday with storms possible Sunday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Friday...

Shortwave gradually moving across the south is bringing another
slug of rain back into these areas, in addition with ongoing
shower activity as we remain under influence of the upper
trough. Gusty winds across the area today owing to tight
pressure gradient and CAA across the area. Issued wind advisory
earlier for locations expected to receive the higher gusts,
mainly as an impact based advisory due to saturated soils and
weakened trees from previous storms. Otherwise, any qpf from
showers (or isolated storms today) should be relatively light,
and could see periods of graupel with more robust showers or
thunderstorms due to cold air aloft. Precipitation will
transition to mainly light upslope later tonight into early
Saturday across the mountains, before tapering off at the low
moves farther away from the area, high pressure starts to build
in, and flow becomes less favorable.

Saturday should overall be a nice day, with plenty of sunshine,
and temperatures in the 60s across much of the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 226 PM Friday...

The second half of the weekend remains dry as an upper level
ridge slides through the Ohio Valley, attributing to rising
temperatures in the process. Afternoon highs on Sunday are
progged to return above their climatological norm, with the
lowlands climbing into the upper 70s while our mountain zones
reaching the 60s to low 70s. A warm front slips through the
region during this time, and is anticipated to drape across our
northern forecast periphery late Sunday night into the start of
the new work week. This will set forth a chance for rain and
embedded thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, with severe weather
being more contained along the front itself across southeast
Ohio and the northern extent of West Virginia. Activity looks to
be diurnally driven, dwindling in coverage after sunset Sunday
night.

Similar temperature conditions are anticipated for Monday
afternoon as the frontal boundary remains nestled in close
quarters to the forecast area. The boundary may slide a bit
southward, which plants shower and storm coverage further south
in the coalfields during peak heating hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 226 PM Friday...

An evolving disturbance over the Four Corner Region is progged
to promote the return of unsettled weather beginning on Tuesday
into midweek. The low will emerge off the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday and will congeal with the stationary front still
floating about in the Appalachia area. This will invigorate
showers and storms in earnest by Wednesday into Thursday as a
trailing cold front sweeps through the country. While
pinpointing severe weather is still too far out within this
forecast cycle, SPC has been advertising Day 4 and 5 potential
for severe across the Central Plains as this front encroaches,
so it will certainly an area to monitor heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 134 PM Friday...

Widespread MVFR activity continues in low ceilings and
occasional reduced visibilities in showers. Most of this
precipitation will taper off after 03Z, with only a few light
rain and snow showers across the higher terrain. In addition,
will see gradual improvement to VFR overnight, with mountains
slower to improve. Otherwise, gusty westerly/west-southwesterly
winds will continue for much of the period, with occasional
gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range across the lowlands, and the 30
to 40 kt range across the higher terrain.

Lastly, LLWS is possible across much of the area tonight, and
this has been added to the TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR overnight may
be slower than currently forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ007>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ523-526.
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     084-085.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/MEK
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL