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000
FXUS63 KSGF 091055
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
555 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across southern
  Missouri this morning. No severe weather expected. Plenty of
  dry time through this afternoon and evening.

- Increasing rain chances late tonight into Wednesday morning.
  Highest rainfall chances and amounts focused along and south
  of Interstate 44 through Thursday morning. Low potential for
  excessive rainfall and minor flooding across south central
  Missouri. No severe weather expected.

- Elevated to significant fire weather potential Thursday
  through Saturday. Highest potential on Thursday with gusty
  northwest winds and low humidities.

- High confidence in drier weather and above normal temperatures
  this weekend with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Today: An upper-level trough and associated embedded shortwaves
continue to translate across the Southern Plains today. A
frontal boundary is stationed across northern Arkansas,
extending northeast into the Ohio Valley. For the Ozarks region,
substantial dry air through the lower and mid levels has been
slow to erode. This is depicted with a dewpoint gradient across
southern Missouri ranging from lower 40s along Interstate 44 to
lower to middle 50s along the MO/AR border. An analysis of the
environment this morning depicts the presence of some elevated
instability (~250-500 J/Kg) across the MO/AR border, which may
support a few thunderstorms as scattered showers overspread
southern Missouri later this morning with increasing lift. Rain
chances remain highest through this morning along and south of
the Highway 60 corridor, though some isolated activity may lift
as far north as Interstate 44. No severe weather or excessive
rainfall are expected with this round of activity. By mid to
late morning, the precipitation shield shifts further south of
the area as the stationary boundary slowly sags south. This will
keep much of the area dry through this afternoon and evening,
though associated cloud cover lingers. Afternoon highs reach
into the upper 60s to around 70.

Tonight-Wednesday Night: As we progress into tonight, shortwave
energy and the associated frontal boundary lift back further
north as the upper-level trough tracks across Lower Mississippi
Valley. This supports increasing rain chances across southern
Missouri through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.
Rain chances are highest (50-80%) along and south of Interstate
44 through Wednesday morning, before precipitation lifts further
north into the afternoon and evening. In general, plenty of dry
time through the morning can be expected north of Interstate
44. Confidence in rain chances (20-40%) remain lower for areas
extending from southeast Kansas into west central Missouri.
Gusty northeast winds around 20 to 30 mph accompany the system
through Wednesday night. WPC continues to advertise a Marginal
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (1/4) across south central Missouri
on Wednesday. The setup is not favorable for widespread
flooding, though some localized heavier amounts and minor
flooding may occur across sensitive low-lying areas through
Wednesday night. The low flooding potential is characterized by
PWATs around 1.00 to 1.25 inch along the MO/AR border,
supporting efficient rainfall rates. Localized heavier rainfall
would generally be observed within any convective elements or
where repeated rounds of rain track. With regards to
convection, there remains a low chance (10-30%) for embedded
thunderstorms across southern Missouri. No severe thunderstorms
are expected. Widespread rain chances and associated cloud cover
keep temperatures cooler in the lower to mid 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Thursday: Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms slowly begin
to slide east overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as a
cold front digs south through the region. As the front pushes
through, rain chances and cloud cover clear from west to east
as gusty northwest winds and a dry airmass filter into the
area. Rainfall amounts will vary across the area through
Thursday morning, with highest amounts focused south of
Interstate 44. Areas along Interstate 44 could see around a 0.50
to 1.00 inch, with the highest amounts (1.5 to 2.0+ inches)
focused across south central Missouri. Areas north of Interstate
44 drop off from a quarter to a tenth of an inch. There still
remains some uncertainty on the gradient of rainfall amounts
from northwest to southeast, though confidence is increasing as
hi- res guidance begin to capture the event. HREF 48 hour
Probability-Matched Mean (through 00Z Thursday) highlights the
axis of highest amounts along and south of Interstate 44. Though
it`s worth noting the NBM and LREF spreads continues to show
variability (1.0 to 2.0 inches) from 10th-90th percentile.
Continue to stay updated over the next 12 to 24 hours as we pin
down the locations of the heaviest rainfall amounts.

Highs on Thursday reach into the lower to middle 60s,
though northwest wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will make it feel a
bit cooler. Additionally, a drier airmass features relative
humidities dropping into the 25-35% range by Thursday
afternoon. This sets the stage for elevated to potential
significant fire weather conditions. However, ongoing green up
may inhibit the overall fire danger. Any dormant vegetation and
leaf litter may be susceptible to the dry and gusty conditions.
By Thursday night, gusty winds will be slow to subside and
shift east. Chilly overnight lows in the lower 40s.

Friday-Monday: Upper-level ridging and increasing mid-level
heights support a warming trend into the weekend. Drier
conditions persist through the weekend, featuring additional
elevated fire weather conditions through Saturday with gusty
southwest winds. Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 on
Friday as winds begin to turn back out of the west- southwest.
By Saturday and Sunday, highs soar into the upper 70s to lower
80s. This will be accompanied by overnight lows in the upper 50s
to near 60. The above normal temperatures persist into early
next week, with low rain chances (10-30%) returning late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue to
overspread the area this morning. Expect rain chances to
continue through mid to late morning across southern Missouri.
Periods of MVFR flight conditions will occur within the activity as
a result reduced ceilings and visibilities. By this afternoon,
any rain chances will remain isolated along the MO/AR border.
Additional rain chances build back into the region tonight,
generally around midnight and after. Widespread MVFR ceilings
around 2500 to 3000 feet ceilings overspread the area into early
Wednesday morning. Heavier pockets of showers and isolated
thunderstorms may support instances of IFR flight conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez