461
FXUS64 KSHV 041737
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1237 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered convection is finally developing across mainly our
northern and southern zones, with very little so far across the
Interstate 20 corridor. Additional thunderstorm development is
likely, but a downward trend is expected by mid to late afternoon
as a shortwave trough moves east of the Mississippi River and weak
shortwave ridging replaces it. There is sufficient instability and
deep layer shear to support a threat for marginally severe hail
and damaging wind gusts into the afternoon. However, the severe
weather threat should remain rather limited.

PoPs were adjust and increased across much of the area given the
ongoing development. Satellite imagery shows quite a few breaks in
the cloud cover, which has allowed many locations to warm very
quickly this morning. High temperatures for this afternoon were
also raise by several degrees areawide. Increased cloud cover
later this afternoon should slow the rate of warming.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Pretty quiet this morning for a change with plentiful high cloud
cover present from anvil blowoff from storms early Friday evening
across Central Texas. The cirrus is thin enough such that we are
seeing some radiational fog across our eastern half. This should
mix out by mid morning and while patchy dense fog will be
possible, it does not appear to be widespread enough to warrant
any advisory this morning.

A wedge of drier air has settled in across the I-20 Corridor in
the form of PWATS near or slightly below one inch from NE TX into
N LA. While this moisture will recover somewhat by afternoon, it
should result in less precip coverage areawide and thus have
backed off NBM pops slightly, more in the range of slight
chance/chance variety tied to daytime heating. Whatever storm
coverage we see this afternoon should dissipate quickly with the
loss of daytime heating. We then await a much stronger disturbance
poised to impact our region late tonight and through the day
Sunday.

This disturbance, embedded in southwesterly flow aloft, will
eject out of the Tx Hill Country this evening, moving rapidly
towards the Piney Woods of NE TX into the Middle Red River Valley
of SE OK by 12z Sun. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this disturbance overnight with a pretty tight pop
gradient after midnight, ranging from categorical pops across NE
TX, SE OK and extreme SW AR to slight chance pops across our far
eastern zones. Marginal Threat of Severe Thunderstorms will exist
across our northwest half after midnight as the decaying MCS makes
good progress into our region prior to 12z Sun. Expanded
categorical pops eastward across all but our extreme eastern zones
Sun Morning as the decaying system continues moving east and with
the atmosphere likely worked over Sunday Morning, backed pops
back to high chance variety across most areas by Sunday Afternoon.
A Slight chance of Excessive, Heavy Rainfall is outlooked across
our western half on Sunday and this appears to be mostly for
Sunday Morning with rainfall amounts near one to two inches
possible through the day Sunday. We should be able to take this
additional rainfall without too much in the way of difficulties
other than small additional rises on area waterways. Therefore,
Flood Watches do not appear to be necessary with the onset of this
next storm system tonight through Sunday.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Trough ejects out to our north and east Sunday Night with weak
upper ridging in its wake. Another upper level trough will
rapidly eject out of the Intermountain West and into the
Southern/Central Plains on Monday. While most of our region will
be removed from the impacts of this next trough, forcing will be
slightly enhanced across our northern zones so kept with NBM`s
handling of mostly chance pops across our northern half with
slight chance pops south for Monday. Pretty uneventful day planned
for Tue other than slight chance pops near and northwest of the
I-30 Corridor, then southwest flow aloft begins to become enhanced
as we await disturbances embedded in this flow to impact our
region Wed into Thu. Latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF
are in pretty good agreement with a frontal intrusion into our
region sometime Wed Night into Thu and this will result in our
next chance for strong to severe thunderstorms, not to mention
periods of locally heavy rainfall once again.

Progs show this frontal intrusion pushing completely through our
region Thu Night through Friday with drier and somewhat milder
conditions for Friday and into the upcoming weekend and this would
be a break from the parade of systems and rainfall our region has
seen recently.

In advance of this cold front, our region will likely experience
some of the hottest temperatures we`ve seen this Spring with
afternoon highs Tue and Wed ranging from the middle and upper 80s
to the lower 90s across our entire region. With high dewpoints in
place, heat indices both afternoons could push 100 degrees in some
locations.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some MVFR ceilings linger near far western terminals around 18z
this afternoon but conditions are largely VFR across the area and
will remain so. Expect scattered convection through mid-late
afternoon, becoming more isolated towards the evening before a
brief dry period headed into the overnight hours. Expect the cu
field to largely diminish after sunset, with a mid/high level
ceiling. Then after midnight, rain chances will increase quickly
and significantly from west to east into early Sunday morning,
with ceilings also quickly deteriorating to MVFR, accompanied by
pockets of IFR. Vsbys also likely to reduce to mainly MVFR within
the rain shield. Embedded thunderstorms also likely. Rain will
taper to showers from west to east through Sunday morning, with
little recovery in ceilings thru 18z. Winds mainly S-SE through
the period 5-10kts, becoming slightly higher 8-12kts Sunday
morning in and around the storm system.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  69  80  66 /  30  40 100  20
MLU  88  66  80  66 /  30  20  70  20
DEQ  83  64  74  64 /  40 100 100  20
TXK  86  67  77  65 /  30  80 100  20
ELD  85  64  77  64 /  30  30  90  20
TYR  87  68  78  67 /  30 100 100  20
GGG  86  67  78  65 /  30 100 100  20
LFK  86  68  79  65 /  40  90 100  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...23