631
FXUS64 KSJT 182330
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
630 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through
Sunday as the area remains under short wave ridging aloft.
Skies will be mainly clear through tomorrow, with overnight
lows in the upper 60s tonight, with highs tomorrow afternoon
similar to today, ranging from the low to mid 90s east, to the
upper 90s to near 100 west. Expect light winds tonight, with
south winds gusting 20 to 25 mph tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A awfully summer-like pattern is shaping up for the long-term
duration of the forecast. With upper level ridging staying in place
through Monday, the trend of hot temperatures and little cloud cover
will continue with highs in the upper 90s to around 103. The next
upper level trough begins to move north and east out of the Baja
California region Monday night, putting our area in increasing
southwest flow aloft. We`ll see an increase in high clouds Tuesday
but with the 850 mb thermal ridge expanding into our area with
temperatures in the 27-30 deg C range across our western counties,
temperatures will likely be even warmer in the mid 90s to around
105. The dryline is expected to bisect our area on Tuesday afternoon
so there is a slight chance we could see some storms develop in the
more unstable air of the Heartland and Western Concho Valley, ahead
of the dryline. A weak frontal boundary is expected to make its way
south into the region during the day on Wednesday. The front is
expected to stall out somewhere in our vicinity and create chances
for showers and storms starting late Wednesday and continuing
through Thursday. Current indications show this front weakening and
lifting north through the day on Thursday. Areas in the Big Country
and Heartland will likely see the greatest reprieve in
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and
everywhere else remaining in the 90s. By Friday, the effects of
the front will largely have worn off with temperatures right back
into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Weak zonal to southwest
flow aloft will continue into the weekend but with the dryline
staying situated across our area, any chances for showers and
storms look to stay off to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Southeast winds generally 12 KTS or less
tonight, increasing mid morning Sunday with gusts of 20 to 25 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71 101  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    69 100  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   67  91  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  69  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       69  98  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       68  94  68  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...04