Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
797 FXUS66 KSTO 120930 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 230 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will result in areas of moderate heat most of the week ahead. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions look to accompany this warm stretch as well. && .DISCUSSION(Through Tuesday)... Skies are clear early this morning. IR difference imagery shows stratus has returned to the entire coast, but profiler data indicate the depth of the marine layer is only around 1.5k ft. Nevertheless, it`s enough to allow a Delta Breeze to develop as surface pressure gradients trend toward onshore. The valley may see minor cooling of a few degrees the next couple of days as a weak trough passes. Beginning Tuesday, warming returns as ridging from the eastern Pacific builds in reducing onshore flow and bringing another period of north winds in the valley. Portions of the central and northern Sacramento Valley will have a chance of seeing their first triple digit heat of the season during the middle of the week, but heat risk will likely remain in the moderate category. Enough moisture and instability is expected to be present over the northern Sierra for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, otherwise dry weather will continue. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)... EPAC upper ridge extends inland over interior NorCal Thursday. Ridge flattens Friday into Saturday as short wave troughs drops into the PacNW. At same time, cut off low west of CA approaches over the weekend and pushes inland Monday, however models differ with progression rate. Low could spark an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over higher elevations of Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday. Cooling trend expected through the extended forecast period, but high temperatures remain above normal through the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta SWly sfc wind up to 20 kts possible. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$