360
FXUS62 KTAE 301951
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The forecast is on track this afternoon as an upper level shortwave
swings through the region. This has brought isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to SE AL and the W FL Panhandle so far
today, with the line of storms pushing to the east and southeast.
Model guidance has been all over the board with what will happen,
though this line should continue its track toward the Gulf.
Elsewhere, the guidance varies leaving confidence low. Opted to keep
the shower and thunderstorm potential to about 15-30% for SW GA and
the W FL Big Bend should any should any other storms try to pop up.
If not, skies should gradually clear leaving us with the overnight
forecast of fog and stratus. Tweaked the fog for SW GA and the E FL
Big Bend to capture more of a patchy fog threat rather than areas of
fog as confidence was lower for widespread fog development. This may
need to be reverted back depending on what the next set of guidance
is. Elsewhere areas of fog was kept for SE AL, the FL Panhandle, and
W FL Big Bend. Dense fog could develop in this region, but
confidence is too low at this time to hoist any sort of advisory.
Any fog or stratus that does develop should dissipate within a few
hours of sunrise. Then skies should clear leaving us with a mostly
dry day. Some CAMs suggest we could see some sea breeze type showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow, but again confidence was too low to
include at the forecast this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

An H5 ridge building over the Southeast will limit rain chances
through the short term period. There is just enough moisture that an
isolated shower or thunderstorm along the East Coast sea breeze that
will be pushing west Thursday afternoon. Confidence wasn`t too high
to get it much west of I-75, but it`s something to monitor on
Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday nights will
generally be in the middle 60s with highs Thursday in and around 90.
It`s also worth mentioning that fog is possible each night thanks to
the proximity of the surface high and ample low-level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Warm and humid conditions are expected the first weekend of May with
daytime highs hanging out in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the middle 60s. A series of H5 shortwaves are
forecast to move through the Southeast, which will increase
afternoon rain chances through much of the period. The strongest
shortwave is forecast to swing through Saturday and is when rain
chances are highest along and north of I-10. Shower and thunderstorm
chances linger Sunday afternoon before drier air takes over early
next week as ridging develops over the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Some change to the TAF package this afternoon to account for the
ongoing storms in southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle. Hi-
res guidance has been variable as to where these storms will
track, but it appears they`re forming a line and turning slightly
to the east and southeast. This should keep thunderstorms out of
KABY and KDHN, with VCTS possible at KDHN for a few more hours
with the storm potential increasing for KECP. Depending on the
track TLH could see some VCTS as well, but confidence is lower.
Then, once the storms and skies clear we`ll turn our attention to
fog and stratus development. The highest confidence for IFR and
LIFR cig and vis in the western FL Panhandle, with KECP
potentially falling to 1/4SM FG before sunrise. Moving north into
southeast AL and then east into the western FL Big Bend, chances
for MVFR to IFR cigs look likely, though LIFR could be possible.
SW GA is where there is the greatest amount of uncertainty for fog
and/or stratus and trended to IFR cigs occuring. A few hours
after sunrise, conditions should return to VFR for the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the
afternoon and into the early evening hours west of Apalachicola.
High pressure takes over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico the rest of
the week, leading to more tranquil boating conditions. Light winds
are expected with seas generally 2 feet or less into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A line of thunderstorms has pushed into the western FL Panhandle
this afternoon. Elsewhere, cumulus and light reflectivities have
popped up in SW GA though no reports of rain have come. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early evening,
with chances decreasing around sunset. Then drier is expected
Wednesday and Thursday with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing
on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The flood wave continues to inch down the Suwannee River with Flood
Warnings continuing at Rock Bluff near Bell and Manatee Springs and
will take a few more days to fall below Minor Flood Stage. No
additional riverine flooding is anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  88  65  91 /  10  10   0  10
Panama City   65  83  66  85 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  86  65  89 /  10   0   0  10
Albany        64  87  63  89 /  20  10   0  10
Valdosta      64  88  65  91 /  20  10   0  10
Cross City    64  86  64  89 /   0  10   0  20
Apalachicola  68  79  67  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Reese