Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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192 FXUS62 KTBW 011822 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 222 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Upper level troughing moves off the eastern seaboard into the western Atlantic. This will allow for broad upper ridging to build in over the southeast U.S. starting today and continuing through the end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.S. This will be short-lived as the ridge builds back in by Monday and continues through the middle of next week. On the surface, high pressure near Bermuda ridges westward over Florida and will dominate the weather pattern through the week. There will be some minor north/south movements of the ridge axis during the forecast period as an area of low pressure moves north of the area over the weekend, but overall this ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the period. Rain chances will remain on the low side (10-30 percent) through the period. Above average temperatures are expected with daytime highs topping out in the mid 80`s along the coast to low 90`s over the interior. Overnight lows will dip only into the mid 60`s to around 70. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions with winds less than 12 knots expected through the forecast period. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side again, so will only mention at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW for VCSH during the late afternoon hours between 20-03Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend. Winds will remain 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather through the period. A slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and storms will be possible the next few days, primarily over the interior. RH values are expected to remain above critical levels with no other fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 71 90 72 90 / 0 20 0 10 FMY 70 90 70 90 / 30 20 10 10 GIF 67 90 67 91 / 20 20 0 10 SRQ 69 89 69 90 / 10 20 0 10 BKV 63 92 64 91 / 10 20 0 10 SPG 73 88 73 87 / 0 20 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard