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000
FXUS63 KTOP 212337
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increase Monday with south-southwest winds of 20-30mph
  and gusts of 35-45mph, strongest across portions of north
  central Kansas where a Wind Advisory has been issued.

- An active pattern is expected this week with several chances
  for rain and thunderstorms. Best chances (60-80%) come
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mid-level ridging is building over the Northern and Central Plains
this afternoon behind a departing shortwave. Surface high pressure
remains in control of the region, leading to pleasant day with sunny
skies, light winds, and temperatures reaching into the low 60s. The
surface ridge slides southeast of the area tonight and the pressure
gradient tightens as a surface low deepens across the Northern
Plains. There could be some patchy frost across eastern portions of
the forecast area, but increasing winds overnight and large dewpoint
depressions should largely preclude frost development.

Winds increase from the south-southwest after sunrise Monday with
sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts of 35-45mph. The strongest
winds will be across portions of north central Kansas where the
pressure gradient is tightest; a Wind Advisory has been issued for
this area. A perturbation diving southeast out of Canada will
shunt a cold front through the area Monday evening into early
Tuesday. The deeper moisture and better ascent will reside
closer to the surface boundary across Iowa, southeast Nebraska,
and far northern Kansas during the evening, which is where CAMs
depict showers and thunderstorms developing. The orientation of
the low-level jet favors these showers/storms to push east
during the evening and overnight hours, but lift and moisture
along the front as it moves through could be sufficient for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm into Tuesday morning. A
strengthening low-level wind field overnight Monday into Tuesday
could generate some advisory-level winds south of the front,
but lack of mixing during this time leads to low confidence in
this occurring.

Temperatures remain seasonal behind the front Tuesday through
Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Several embedded
perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow eject across the Plains on
Wednesday, bringing low chances (15-25%) for showers and storms
to the area. Better precipitation chances arrive Thursday-Friday
as a potent trough ejects across the Plains. A warm front will
advance north Thursday into Friday with the warm sector residing
across eastern Kansas ahead of a dryline by midday Friday.
While uncertainty remains high this far out, models are in
decent agreement with an overlap of shear and instability
supportive strong to severe storms, especially on Friday.
Details will become clearer as the event approaches, so be sure
to stay up to date with the latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR prevails this period. Lights winds shift to the south this
evening and quickly increase after sunrise Monday. South-
southwest winds will become sustained between 20 and 25 kts,
with gusts to 35 kts at times during the afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Monday for KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ034-KSZ035.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Teefey