936
FXUS64 KTSA 020923
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MCS is beginning to enter eastern Oklahoma early this morning, and
will continue to advance east during the morning hours with a
gradual weakening trend. Gusty winds along the northern edge of
the complex have necessitated a wind advisory for Osage and Pawnee
counties until 7 am. The expectation is that this early day
complex will largely inhibit convective redevelopment through
this afternoon in much of the area. The exception may be the far
northwest part of the forecast area, so afternoon pops will be
highest in this area. This area will also see the greatest chance
for a marginally severe storm late this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Convective chances may increase this evening across much of the
area as a cold front moves through, but considerable uncertainty
exists regarding convective coverage and intensity. Friday will
see a relative minimum in rain chances, but shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase again by late Friday night
through the weekend as another frontal boundary moves across the
area.

A potent upper level storm system will move into the central or
northern Plains early next week continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances, but the overall convective potential remains
unclear at this point as the system may lift out too far to the
north to break a capping inversion that will likely develop over
our area Monday. With the upper system lifting out so far to the
north, the surface boundary may also hang up to our west, and with
continued southwest flow next week, at least low convective
chances may linger into at least midweek. For now have stuck with
the NBM pops for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Currently quiet aviation weather across the area. We will see
CIGs develop and lower tonight but we should stay above MVFR
criteria. A few showers and a very isolated storm may occur
overnight for Oklahoma TAF sites. The main concern will be the
potential for gusty and erratic winds, especially for the Tulsa
area TAFs after 10Z.

Additional showers and storms may develop mid to late morning for
the Arkansas TAF sites, continuing off and on into the afternoon.
A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop across Oklahoma
moving west to east during the late afternoon or evening,
eventually moving into Arkansas. During this time gusty winds,
heavy rain, and lightning may occur. Winds will mostly remain out
of the south to southeast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  80  61 /  80  50  10  40
FSM   76  64  82  63 /  70  50  30  20
MLC   77  62  81  62 /  80  50  20  30
BVO   76  57  79  57 /  70  50  10  40
FYV   76  59  78  58 /  70  50  20  20
BYV   76  59  78  59 /  70  50  20  20
MKO   76  61  80  61 /  80  50  20  30
MIO   75  59  78  60 /  50  50  10  30
F10   76  61  79  61 /  80  50  20  30
HHW   75  63  81  63 /  80  50  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054-059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06