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000
FXUS65 KVEF 120414
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
914 PM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain above-normal for the next
few days underneath a ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will
trend lower over the weekend with an approaching area of low
pressure, which will also bring an increase in winds area wide as
well as some showers to the higher elevations of Inyo County,
Esmeralda and Nye counties. Temperatures will be near or slightly
below their seasonal normals for much of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Aside from a brief towering cumulus that drifted off the
southern Sierra early this evening, the tranquil conditions from
today will continue overnight. South winds begins to increase Friday
ahead of a large closed low digging off the Pacific Northwest Coast.
No immediate need for changes to the winds Friday and Saturday, but
the 00Z HREF is indicating less than a 10% probability for gusts
over 40 mph Saturday afternoon across most of Clark, Mohave, and
eastern San Bernardino counties...except for the mountains. This is
considerably lowering than the previous NBM and the latest high res
models may tone down the winds a little once they make it into the
04Z NBM. Gusts should still easily reach 30-35 mph Saturday
afternoon, but may not be exceed 40 mph for the aforementioned areas
until Saturday evening and overnight as the low progresses inland.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
116 PM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

The brief period of above normal temperatures will hold across the
area through Friday but the influence of the approaching trough will
begin to impact temperatures by Saturday with temperatures falling
to within a couple of degrees of the seasonal normals on Saturday.
The latest ensembles and clusters are in good agreement with the
slightly slower evolution of the upper low that will be moving into
northern California on Saturday and then slowly weakening as it
moves into the Great Basin later on Sunday. The main impact with
this system will be the wind. With the slower movement of the low
the winds on Friday have trended a bit weaker with the probability
of wind gusts reaching 40+ mph being quite isolated and mainly over
the higher elevations of Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye counties. Given
that, will hold off on any wind advisories for Friday at this time.
By Saturday winds will increase further and have decided to issue a
high wind watch for Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye counties. Elsewhere the
winds will increase but should remain below advisory criteria. In
terms of precipitation, most of the lower elevations will see little
to no precipitation with this system but the higher elevations,
particularly in the eastern Sierra, White Mountains and Esmeralda
County may see up to 0.25 inches of rain or liquid equivalent on
Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday the upper low will continue to weaken
and move from southeast California to northwest Arizona by Sunday
night. Temperatures will fall most significantly on Sunday with
highs around 10 degrees lower on Sunday compared to Monday and
averaging around 10 degrees below their seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Thursday.

On Monday the upper level low will quickly exit to our east and our
area will be under drier, northwesterly flow. The next system will
be dropping down towards our area from the north but the bulk of the
ensembles and WPC clusters aren`t digging the system down into the
southern Great Basin. At this point, the impacts will be some
increase in northerly winds on Wednesday and Thursday, and a
maintenance of keeping our temperatures below normal. Any
precipitation will be light and should remain north of the Las Vegas
Valley with the latest NBM indicating only about a 10% probability
of measurable rain in northern Lincoln County.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Mainly diurnal winds through
tonight with east winds into the early evening hours before becoming
southwesterly by 04Z with speeds remaining under 8KT through the
period. Southerly winds will increase on Friday morning above 12kts
by 17Z and will increase further during the afternoon. No
significant clouds or weather expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...KBIH will see south to southeast winds this afternoon
with a high probability for wind speeds of 10-15KT through 03Z
before wind speeds diminish. Otherwise, diurnal wind patterns are
expected through tonight. Other than a few clouds over the southern
Great Basin this afternoon, skies will be mostly clear across the
region. On Friday south to southwest winds will increase areawide
with gusts generally of 20 to 30 kts.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adair
SHORT TERM...Czyzyk
LONG TERM...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Czyzyk

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