Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 302319
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR SE CO AND NE NM AT
23Z. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/06Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS
SWD. WDLY SCT MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SHORT LIVED
TS WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD
UNTIL AROUND 31/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$






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