Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 180559 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1059 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...AT TIMES EXPANDING OR LOWERING
FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WED. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE SAF...GUP...FMN AND
PERHAPS AEG...FMN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ABQ. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY -SN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN. ROW AND LVS FAIRLY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THU MORN AT TCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH A LITTLE
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH EARLIER
AVIATION AFD ISSUANCE. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS TO BE VFR MOST OF
DAY THU...WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.UPDATE...
WINTER ADVISORIES BY THE BOARD ON SCHEDULE...AND FRESH PUBLIC
ZONES ISSUED WITH HEADLINES REMOVED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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