Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 012356 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
556 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF FCST AREA...A FEW OF
WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
UNTIL 03Z OR 04Z. THE LATTER MAY CONTAIN MEDIUM TO LARGE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. LVS...TCC...ROW WILL BE THE SITES MOST IMPACTED
BY TSRA AND THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST THIRD MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. AEG...ABQ...SAF WILL SEE
LOWERING CHANCES OF TSRA THROUGH 02Z OR 03Z AND NEXT TO NO CHANCE
THEREAFTER. BUT GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STILL WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS EVE MOST
LOCALES WILL BE VFR WITH ALL BEING VFR ON TUE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY
AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ANDRES MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BLANCA MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST ABOUT OVER THE RGV THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS FIRED RATHER EARLY TODAY...LIKELY WITH THE HELP OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS MUCH DRIER AIR FROM ARIZONA MOVES IN. EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY
STRONG...CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF TYPICAL JUNE WEATHER TO
NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
INDICATE THE HOTTEST DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THE CENTURY MARK POSSIBLE AT ROSWELL WEDNEDSAY
AFTERNOON AS DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS COMBINE WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.

AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ANDRES GETS
CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS INCREASING FLOW
ALSO TAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...BRINGING
IT DUE NORTH AND MERGING IT WITH THE REMNANTS FROM ANDRES. MODELS
KEEP ASSOCIATED PRECIP WEST OF NM UNTIL FRIDAY. IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE SOME TIME TO GET CONVECTION GOING FRIDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AND NEWD THROUGH THE
STATE...LIMITING SURFACE HEATING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOT WASTING
ANY TIME TAPPING MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA. STRONG AND
LONG LIVED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER TX KEEPS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA STREAMING
OVER NM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE 1900...HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL REMNANTS HAVE ONLY BEEN DOCUMENTED TWICE IN NEW MEXICO
DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. JUNE 1990 BROUGHT THE REMNANTS OF TWO
SUCH SYSTEMS TO THE STATE. THIS IS INDEED A RARE SEQUENCE OF
EVENTS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE TODAY WITH
CONTINUED RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED AND THE HIT AND
MISS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
A SMALL FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE CELL ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. STRONGER STORMS AND MORE OF A POTENTIAL
FOR WETTING RAIN WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FLOW IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS AND CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVENT
AND BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PEAK HIGHS APPEAR
TO BE ON WEDNESDAY. HAINES VALUES WILL ALSO SOAR UP INTO THE 6
CATEGORY. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS IS
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIRMASS SINCE THE EARLIER HALF OF APRIL.
THE WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY. THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. BREEZES DONT LOOK TO BE TOO OUT OF
CONTROL BUT LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BOTH WED/THU.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH GOBBLING UP
SOME OF THE HURRICANE MOISTURE OFF THE BAJA AND BRINGING IT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD DEVELOP OVER TEXAS. THIS HYBRID MONSOON
LIKE PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
MEXICO/S CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND SUSPECT THE SURFACE DRYLINE WOULD
SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS MEANS AN INITIAL MIX BAG
OF WETTING RAIN BUT AS THE LATE WEEK ENTERS IN THE WEEKEND...MORE
WETTING CELLS SHOULD BE AROUND. THE WETTER STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW AND
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE STORMS IN THE EAST MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO FORM DUE TO A STABLE LAYER ALOFT. WILL WATCH THAT TREND.
EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK AND MORE SO FOR THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHER HUMIDITY AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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