Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE


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