Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
933 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE WATCH AT 9 PM AS THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THAT
REGION. DESPITE MOST OF THE FA WEDGED IN A COOL AIRMASS AT THE
SFC... MERGING BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
COOL SFC AIR PREVENTING STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE GRND...BUT
NMRS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PAST SVRL HRS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
PULSE. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM FRI OVER THE WATERS GIVEN CRNT CONDITONS.
DON`T SEE VSBYS IMPROVING OVER THE WATER UNTIL AFTER SR. CONVECTION
SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 08Z. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S
EXCEPT M-U50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ALL THE TAF SITES WERE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR IS PRESENT. SOME VLIFR IS
PSBL OVERNIGHT. AT ECG...VFR CONDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT
ONLY TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WHEN CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BUT IFR
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT PULLS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/LSA
MARINE...BMD/MAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.