Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AT NASSAWADOX...KIPTOPEKE...AND BISHOPS HEAD. HI
SURF ADVSRY CONTINUES THRU LATE MORNG FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK
COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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