Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH
INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS
WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF
THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON
NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS


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