Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NE ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST THIS AFTRN AND EVE.
MODELS CONT TO INDICATE DEEP MSTR ALONG WITH GOOD DYMNCS THRU 18Z
WITH DMNSHG EFFECTS AS THE BEST SPRT MOVES NE OF THE AREA BY 00Z.

XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS
FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN
RANGE FROM THE M30S-L50S. FCST BECOMES PROBLEMATIC ACROSS XTREME
NWRN CNTYS BTWN 14Z-20Z. CAA REMAINS RATHER WEAK...BUT INTENSITY OF
THE PCPN WILL LIKELY CAUSE ENUF DYNMCL COOLING FOR SFC TMPS TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SVRL HR PRD OF
MIXED RAIN/WET SNOW IF NOT ALL WET SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA
/ FLUVANNA CNTYS. SLUSHY ACCUMLS OF A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE
(LOUISA - PALMYRA) WITH AMTS OF 1/2 TO ARND 1 INCH CLOSER TO THE
ALBEMARLE CNTY LINE (BOSWELLS TAVERN - ANTIOCH). XPCT ANY ACCUMLS
WUD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A
FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMLS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED
ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO.

MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT
CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN
INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 2/3RDS TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE BAY...1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT
OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON
EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST
SYSTM LEAVES BUT WITH A SCNDRY IMPULSE HOT ON ITS HEELS AFTR 09Z.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING AND MSTR WISE...BUT WILL KEEP CHC POPS
ACROSS WRN CNTYS LATE TONITE. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY
SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC
LINE TO SAY I64...REMAINING LIQUID ACROSS SERN VA AND NE NC. LOWS
30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS. NO ACCUMLS ANTICIPATED BUT A
DUSTING OF SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUTM IN ANY SNOW SHWR.

S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE FA THURS MORN...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY LATE
IN THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH CHC MORNING POPS (RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX)
WITH TMPS IN THE M30S-L40S...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY WITH SLGHT CHC POPS
IN THE AFTRN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING
HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE
10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE
WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY-
KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL
WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY
ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM.
WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER
THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT
(HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN
THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE ATLC WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY DUE TO STRONG NNE FLOW WED
MORNING LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER WED/WED
NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




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