Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES NOW OFF THE CST...WILL CONT TO SLO DRIFT E AWAY FM THE
CST THROUGH TDA. CLOUDS CONT TO THICKEN AND LWR FM THE SW AS GULF
COAST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NE THROUGH THE SE
CONUS...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. XPCG MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY...BUT SOME RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE IN FAR SW PORTIONS OF LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONT W/
INCRSG POPS TO 50-60% POPS SW LATE IN THE DAY...W/ RIBBON OF
30-40% POP FROM THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH NE NC. HI TEMPS RANGING FM
THE M50S NW TO L60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE (PWTRS INCRSG TO 1.5 TO
2 IN 00-06Z/24 PER 00Z/23 GFS) WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DUE TO A
STRONG NEARLY 70KT LLJ. POPS FOR RAIN DURING THE 12HR PERIOD TNGT
WILL CONT AT 100%. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
COASTAL NE NC (NOT READY TO ADD TO OTHER AREAS - ESP ERN VA/LWR SE
MD BUT WOULDN`T RULE IT OUT)...AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THAT AREA
(CSTL NE NC) IN SLGT CHC SVR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
6HR PRESSURE FALLS OF -6MB TO -10MB GFS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE COAST.
GUSTS FROM THE SSE DIRECTION OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. LO
TEMPS TNGT SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH READINGS LIKELY TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN A ~6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN TNGT...WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.5 TO 0.75 IN
N/CNTRL AND 1.00-1.25 IN NR THE CST (AND NE NC).

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION BY 12Z/25...W/ A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING TOWARD THE FAR WRN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE MON MORNING...WITH A GUSTY SW WIND
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S (SEE THE
THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORDS). WILL LIMIT ANY POPS TO FAR
ESE AREAS OF FA AS 00Z/23 NAM RMNS OUTLIER IN LINGERING MOISTURE
ACRS THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS XPCD INLAND...WITH PSBL CLOUDS LINGERING RIGHT ALG THE
COAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER TUE. HIGHS TUE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER MORNING
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z/23 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMING MORE INTO LINE WRT PTNTL
LO PRES DEVELOPING ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY NR THE SE CONUS CST LT
TUE/TUE NGT...THEN TRACKING NNE ALG THE CST WED INTO WED NGT. A
BUSY PD OF TRAVEL MIDWEEK INCRSLY LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
RA...AND AS PTNTL CSTL STM WINDS DOWN (LT WED/WED NGT)...MDL TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST PSBL RA ENDING AS WET SN INLAND. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP TO 70-80% E PORTION W...40-60% INLAND ON WED.

PCPN/MOIST THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST LATER WED
WED NGT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING FM W TO E. A MAINLY DRY FRONT
SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. HI PRES WILL
THEN BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI THRU SAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE L40S W AND M/U40S E WED...IN THE U40S TO L50S THU...IN THE
M/U40S FRI...AND RANGE THRU THE 40S SAT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S WED MORNG...IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU AND
FRI MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S SAT MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS IS PUSHING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INITIALLY...JUST SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AFTER 9Z...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND STILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 15 KTS. BUT ONCE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SHOULD SLOWLY SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN
AND MIXING HELP CEILINGS TO RISE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING OVR THE OCEAN.
DESPITE WARM AIR OVR COOL WATER TEMPS...WITH A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT AND WEAK LO PRES
DEVELOPMENT OVR NRN VA...AND LATEST NAM12 PROGGING 925 MB WINDS
~75 KT...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HRS OF WINDS AOA
34 KT OVR THE OCEAN TNGT. SEAS WILL REACH 6-8 FT. GUSTS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR THE BAY AS WELL (AT LEAST AT ELEVATED
SITES) WHERE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO
MAINTAINED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OTHER WTRS. THE GALE WARNING
ENDS LATE MON MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE SCA
HEADLINES ALL END DURING THE DAY MON AS WINDS DECREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON NGT/TUE MORNG.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEN INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVR THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







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