Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SE VA...AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY AROUND 12Z. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO PROPAGATE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE NAM/HRRR SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE PCPN BEST ATTM SO
HAVE BASED FORECAST FOR TODAY CLOSE TO THESE MODELS. BETWEEN
12-18Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA (80-100% POP).
AFTER 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NC OBX.
THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS (>70%) ACROSS E-SE VA AND NE NC
LATER TODAY...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 30% ACROSS NW AREAS. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS ARE STILL MILD ACROSS SE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING (MID 50S
TO MID 60S)...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE FROPA. AFTER
THAT...TEMPS GENERALLY DON`T RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST CAA
DEVELOPS UNDER AN OVERCAST SKY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD
STEADY IN THE 40S.

PCPN GENERALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP ENOUGH
UVM IN PLACE ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO TOUCH OFF SPOTTY
SHOWERS. WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT...THERE CAN
EVEN BE SNOW SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 30 NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SAT...THEN OFFSHORE
SAT NIGHT. HIGHS ON SAT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID-
UPPER 40S. IF THERE ARE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THERE COULD STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTN
INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
SHOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST. ALL SHOWERS FINALLY COME TO
AN END SAT EVE...SKIES CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE
20S BY SUN MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT BUT THE
DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH READINGS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR VA AND NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SOME FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL
FLOW IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A WEAKER VERSION OF A MEAN UPPER
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND AND TROUGH IN THE NE CONUS. WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
MON. LATEST 12Z/26 ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAN THE
GFS AS IT DIGS THE SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC
POP FOR SHOWERS FOR NOW...NO GULF CONNECTION PRESENT IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT SO ANY POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
MON REMAIN SEASONABLE...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...A BIT COOLER
OVER THE ERN SHORE. NEXT SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH...MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AT
12Z/TUE...TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED/WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WX TO THE LOCAL AREA TUE/WED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE SSW ON TUE...AND THEN TO THE W ON WED AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
PASSES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND DEPENDING
ON THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE BY
THU...GFS BEING THE WETTER SOLN AS SFC LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. WILL HAVE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER...STAYING NEAR CLIMO AT THIS POINT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 F. MORNING LOWS MON-THU AVG IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH RIC/SBY AS OF 06Z TRIGGERING AND
WIND SHIFT TO N ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ~20KT AND 1.5-2.0KFT CIGS
IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP S OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WIND SHIFT AND LOWERING CIGS OCCURRING FROM ABOUT 08-10Z AT
PHF/ORF/ECG. SOME IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT RIC/PHF AFTER 09-10Z.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW SO IT WAS INCLUDED AS A
TEMPORARY CONDITION. THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THE BULK OF -RA
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 12Z AT RIC/SBY...AND EVEN A FEW HOURS LATER
AT PHF/ORF. AREAS OF -RA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NC
REACHING ECG AROUND 12Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS INCREASES
AFTER 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER RA. CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW. ISOLATED
-SHRA/SHSN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO N...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20-25KT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BUILDING TO 6-8FT WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE
BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING THE WIND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT OFF THE NC COAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CAA. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND
AVERAGING 20-25KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD LINGER AROUND 4-
5 FT...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY RETURNING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT SCAS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIVERS WHERE THE LULL SHOULD
EXCEED 12 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO SSW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ



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