Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM





















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