Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 261052
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the North Carolina coast
through today, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday,
and will move into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Going with a blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF models for the
near/short term conditions. The upper ridge will slowly bld n and
ovr the Mid atlc region today and Fri, with sfc hi pres remaining
cntrd off the VA/NC cst thru Fri. This will keep the area mainly
dry and warm, despite increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny
sky this morning, with a bit more in the way of aftn cu as dwpts
will be into the 60s (sky will avg partly-mostly sunny in the
aftn). With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C this aftn, expect high
temps about 1-3 F warmer, in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the
inland zones, ranging thru the lwr to mid 80s near the immediate
cst. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be
the first time this season (see climate section). High res models
genly keep bulk of tstm activity out of the cwa until late this
aftn, so will carry a 20% POP over much of the interior of VA
after 3pm, with a small area to arnd 30% in the far NW (dry acrs
the SE). Any convection should wane rather quickly after sunset,
and will have 20% POPS acrs mainly the nrn 1/2 of the CWA thru
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy, warm and somewhat humid tngt with
lows in the mid to upr 60s. Forecast soundings again not real
enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just
some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20%
POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s, and an
increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along
the cst with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Mostly clear to
partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat,
models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper
moisture associated with the low off the SE cst to our south. So,
will keep only a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to
extrm srn VA and ne NC, with a partly sunny sky south to a mostly
sunny sky north. Highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at RIC...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...VFR conds through 12z taf pd.
FEW-SCT cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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