Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241026
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF HOULTON. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMP
AND DEW POINT GRIDS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COVERING MOST OF NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE ATTM. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THIS MORNING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 70S
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
AND LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST AT 12Z MON WILL BUILD NORTH TO NEAR HATTERAS BY TUE
PM. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. BY TUE THE 500H HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SOME ACROSS DOWN EAST MAINE AND THE SW CORNER OF
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY WITH
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY  WARM AND HUMID AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND MILD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MAY BE DRIER WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISLD SHOWERS PSBL MAINLY
THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR MEMORIAL DAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHOWERS LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
TUE NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER AGAIN TO MVFR IN
SHOWERS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. WIND/SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW. COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD
SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE. WENT ABOUT
1 TO 2 FT BELOW THE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED TO HAVE HIGH
BIAS. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
COLD WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 3 TENTHS (0.3") OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT
CARIBOU YESTERDAY. THIS WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EVER OBSERVED SO
LATE IN THE SEASON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
CLIMATE...CB


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