Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 200426
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY THEN CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1226 AM...TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOUR
ACROSS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ARE A BIT COOLER THAN 24
HOURS AGO ACROSS PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE. THE COOLEST SPOTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT ARE IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON...PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES WHERE THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE MIDNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH MOST SHOW SOME
HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SATURDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST
WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE FA.
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FA SO HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF TO OUR WEST, SO ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD, SOMEWHAT MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND A
DECENT BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT INCHES CLOSER WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TO US. A SEPARATE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS.
SOME OLDER MODEL RUNS DID HAVE THIS SYSTEM MERGING WITH THE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT NOW APPEARS THEY WILL STAY SEPARATE.

SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND RAISED POPS A BIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS
NOT AS COLD AS THE AIR WE HAVE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE AIRMASS PRESENTLY OVER US. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS AND SECOND SHOT OF COOL AIR...ABOUT THE SAME
COLDNESS AS TODAY`S AIRMASS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS OF
MVFR FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALIZED IFR NEAR THE COAST, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. IMPROVING TO VFR
MOST AREAS LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER SATURDAY

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-
     032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/JORDAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN/FOISY
MARINE...CB/JORDAN/FOISY





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