Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 132315
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
615 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to lift north of the region tonight. A
large area of Low pressure will remain to our north on Thursday as a
weak low slides well to our south. High pressure will build to our
south Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
615pm Update...
Lowered temps a couple degrees tonight based on recent trends.
Otherwise no changes.

Previous Discussion...
The large area of low pressure which brought snow and mixed
precipitation to the area will continue to intensify as it lifts
north through eastern Quebec tonight. Strong gusty westerly
winds behind the low will pull in much colder air overnight.
Some snow showers in the wrap around moisture are likely over
the far north this evening. An additional dusting to an inch is
possible in some spots with some blowing snow this evening. Snow
showers will diminish overnight. We will be in a corridor of
dry air on Thursday with the large low well to our north and a
weak low sliding well offshore. The air will be bitter cold.
Wind chills will be near 10 below over the north and the single
digits Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Thursday night, skies will be clearing across the area with
single digit lows. Winds are expected to remain fairly steady
with a decent pressure gradient between low pressure in Labrador
and high pressure in the Ohio Valley. If winds decrease, subzero
readings will be widespread. The pressure gradient remains
Friday and mixing will generate some gusts of 20 to 25 mph. This
will keep apparent temperatures below zero north of Houlton
during Friday and in the single digits south of Houlton. Actual
highs will be in the lower teens north of a line from Greenville
to Houlton while readings near 20F are anticipated towards
Bangor and Ellsworth. On Friday night, winds decrease under high
pressure, but mid clouds increase ahead of an upper level
shortwave. These clouds are expected to keep lows from dropping
off too dramatically. Readings will be just below zero in
northern Aroostook County and increase southward to upper single
digits in the lower Penobscot Valley. The shortwave upper trough
is not currently expected to cause any widespread precipitation
Friday night into Saturday as low pressure on the cyclonic side
of the trough is forecast to develop well east in the Atlantic
Ocean. There is some concern about an inverted Norlun-like
trough along the coast and have indicated chance pops for snow
showers Friday night into early Saturday. Further north, cannot
rule out flurries with the upper trough, but there`s not enough
H925-H850 moisture showing right now to justify including
mention in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds increase again Saturday night on the backside of the upper
trough along with cold advection sufficient to generate single
digit lows for most of the area. If winds are less, then the low
temp forecast will need downward adjustment. High pressure
builds Sunday with some gusty northwest winds keeping apparent
temperatures less than zero all day north of Houlton and lower
teens even to the coast. Winds decrease on Sunday night with
high pressure. Increasing clouds are expected to keep lows
mostly in the zero to 10F range. A shortwave upper trough and
accompanying surface trough are expected to bring some light
snow on Monday. The situation gets more complicated Monday night
into Wednesday night. For now, have favored a solution similar
to the 13/12Z GEFS with a coastal low on Wednesday bringing
potentially significant snow. The 13/12Z operational ECMWF shows
a coastal low on Monday night, but this solution involves
kicking a Four Corners low out of the SW US too quickly and it
is not supported by the majority of ECMWF ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions in variable low clouds and snow
showers are likely over the far north this evening with VFR
conditions elsewhere. VFR conditions are likely throughout the
area late tonight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: From Thursday night into Sunday night, the
prevailing condition will be VFR. On Monday, IFR conditions are
possible due to snow. At this time, there`s no strong indication
of light snow showers reducing vis on Saturday, but the
possibility will have to be watched.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A gale warning will be up this evening for winds
gusting up to 35 kt. Winds will gradually diminish to SCA later
tonight through Thursday.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions will likely remain in place Thursday
night into Friday morning. Another SCA looks like a reasonable
bet on Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Foisy
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Bloomer/Foisy/MCW
Marine...Bloomer/Foisy/MCW



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