Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 120148
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 50S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND WARMER W/READINGS
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A WSW BREEZE KICKING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. A SSW WIND ALONG
THE COAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THIS AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON CAPPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR POPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND
ECMWF. THE SKY GRIDS FROM THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND CMCREG. FOR
WIND USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT THREE HOURLY FROM THE SUPERBLEND. THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL AND THE MINIMUM
FROM THE SUPERBLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
COLD FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY RESULTING IN SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR
ALL GRIDS...AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY
COVER.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR SUSTAINED WIND
GRIDS...BUT WILL REDUCE SPEED BY 20 PERCENT DUE TO EXPECTED
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS SUNDAY
AND INCREASES IN DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THEN CONTINUES UNTIL BROKEN UP BY A WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO BE FACTOR WITH THIS FETCH ACROSS GULF OF
MAINE...HOWEVER WITH HE FETCH EXTENDING ACROSS WARMER WATER TO
SOUTH THINK IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WAVES 7+ FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY LATER
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE WNA/4.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE





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