Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 050803
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.

LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID
SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE
LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE
UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO
BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL
POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS).
SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND
SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND
CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST
HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED
ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN
QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY
BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS
THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY.

THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN
TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT
AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT


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