Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 260016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
716 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
710 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS W/CLOUDS STILL
HOLDING ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE COMING DOWN
AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GUSTS TO CUT THEM BACK. SURFACEANALYSIS
SHOWED A TROF W/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. COLD FRONT
W/A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR STILL RESIDING BACK ACROSS
WESTERN QUEBEC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BASED ON CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING, BUT EVEN THEN, THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY INTENSE SYSTEM
AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDN`T BE MUCH MORE THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR
AT MOST. HOWEVER, IT IS HIGH IMPACT BECAUSE OF IT OCCURRING
DURING SUCH A HEAVY TRAVEL TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
RATIOS WON`T BE THAT GREAT THOUGH, RANGING FROM AROUND 8 TO 1
ALONG THE COAST TO 13 TO 1 FURTHER INLAND. PART OF THE REASON FOR
THE POOR SNOW RATIOS IS FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT ALOFT. THE AIR
SHOULDN`T BE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET PROBLEMS, BUT
IT ALSO WON`T BE GREAT FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (DOWNEAST).

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP THE END OF THE STORM JUST A TOUCH. TRAVEL MIDDAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY EASIER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.

COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY SAT MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST TO NRN
LAKE MICHIGAN...THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST TO VT/NH. BY MID DAY
SAT...THE GFS MOVES THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME...THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT KEEPING IT OVER NH. BY SAT
EVNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW JUST NW OF QUEBEC CITY AND THE WARM
FRONT TO ERN ME...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY AND MOVES
THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN ME. THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL REMAIN OUT OF
FAZE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 6 TO 12
HRS BEHIND THE GFS. EARLY SUN MRNG THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. SUN MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SW ME. BY MON MRNG BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO
WINDS FOR GUST OVER LAND 30 PERCENT FOR WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER AREAWIDE IN SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN
DEVELOPING RAIN WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS WILL THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/NORCROSS/FOISY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.