Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270438
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1238 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the state on Friday. A cold front
crosses the area on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms
expected across southern areas during the afternoon. Unsettled
weather continues into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update 12:35 AM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point
based on latest observations.

Stratus is contg to hang on ovr ern Aroostook this aftn. Sfc hipres
is building into Canadian Maritimes and as it conts to slide east
this evng, low-lvl winds shud veer arnd to the east allowing
moisture to head back into CWA. Moisture wl also be heading up fm
the southwest ahd of wmfnt with entire CWA clouding up bfr daybreak.
As it does, upglide wl increase on 305K lyr btwn 09z and 12z. Latest
RAP is showing vry marginal instability acrs areas tonight so wl not
include isold thunder attm. Convection is currently firing in the
Adirondacks but expect this wl weaken ovrngt as diurnal htg wanes.

Expect the bulk of the rain to occur acrs the north drg the mrng hrs
as s/wv crosses the area. QPF amnts wl likely range btwn 0.10 and
0.25 inches acrs the far north drg the mrng hrs. Showers wl
gradually wind down drg the aftn but enuf moisture wl linger to
warrant 30 pops into the evng.

Max temps for tomorrow wl be cooler than tda especially in srn
zones. Locations along the coast wl see onshore flow and temps wl
lkly struggle to reach 60F with nrn sites similar to tda`s temps.
Cntrl sxns wl be cooler and wl hv a hard time pushing 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We`re looking at an unsettled start to the long Memorial Day
weekend as a frontal boundary waffles around the forecast area. A
warm front will lift across the region Friday evening, allowing
any lingering showers or thunderstorms to come to an end by
midnight or so. A warm front will quickly return back south as a
cold front late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This front
will become nearly stationary across Downeast/coastal Maine by
Saturday afternoon. A very warm and humid airmass will exist along
and south of the front, so expect we`ll see showers and
thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. Much of the 12z
guidance places this front a bit further south than previous runs,
though the Canadian and SREF both keep it further north. Did tone
back on the pops a bit but didn`t want to go too hog-wild at this
point given the continued model differences. At this time the best
chances for precipitation still looks to be south of a Millinocket
to Greenville line. We`ll have plenty of shear (0-6 km 30-40 kt),
but the best instability will be mainly to the south and west of
our forecast area. Have left the mention of thunder in the
forecast for now, but trends will need to be watched by subsequent
shifts. Saturday`s highs will range from the lower/mid 70s in the
north to the lower 80s south.

For Saturday night into Sunday...The front lifts back north
overnight, perhaps as far as the County. The 12z NAM, 09z SREF, and
the 12z ECMWF all show a wave and its associated precip sliding down
along this front sometime Sunday. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS keeps the
area completely dry until late Sunday evening. Have increased pops
across much of the forecast area to match the bulk of the guidance
since the GFS seems to be an outlier. The differences in the frontal
and precip placement make Sunday`s temp forecast a  bit tricky, so
have gone with a blend, giving highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We remain on the periphery of the upper ridge into Tuesday.
Shortwaves rotating around the high will keep the threat of
precipitation around through then, along with mild conditions.
Surface ridging finally clears the precip out on Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures will be a little cooler for the middle of
the week, but still a bit warmer than normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR restrictions for a time late this afternoon before
lifting to VFR at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. VFR briefly through 04Z
before stratus and MVFR restrictions return to northern terminals.
Further south at BGR and BHB expect MVFR after 08z with all
terminals at IFR restrictions in -shra through end of TAF valid
time.


SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are possible along
the coast Friday night due to fog, stratus and possible rain
showers. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through Saturday evening, with
occasional MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at KBGR and
KBHB Saturday afternoon. More widespread activity will move in
Sunday, along with prevailing MVFR. Occasional IFR can`t be ruled
out in any heavier showers.  This will continue through Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA through Saturday.
Will see areas of fog across the waters Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: The main concern through the Memorial Day weekend will be
rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance for
any thunder will be Saturday afternoon into the early evening across
the inner waters. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels, so no headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone



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