Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 020335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH AN EXITING UPPER DISTURBANCE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CARRY A BIT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS, LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CAPES ARE WEAK AT ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG BUT THE AIR WILL CARRY A
BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN IT DID TODAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN COASTAL AREAS AS A FLOW OF
HUMID AIR CONTINUES OVER THE COLDER WATERS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE THING
TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN INTO NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WEAKER AND
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. I HAVE LEANED WITH THE OP GFS SOLUTION BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IF THE LOW DOES INDEED TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION BUT COOLER ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OUT
MONDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. TUESDAY COULD BE
AN INTERESTING DAY CONVECTION WISE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM
CENTRAL CANADA AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROF AND COLD POCKET ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROF/COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...FROM MVFR TO VLIFR...WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW CEILINGS/FOG. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM
IN MAINLY LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG AND IN SCATTERED DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND ISLOD TSTMS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 2014 TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FINISHED ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE. CARIBOU`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 68.1 DEGREES WHICH WAS 2.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
CARIBOU`S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 7.06
INCHES IN JULY WHICH WAS 2.98 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

AT BANGOR THE JULY AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES
WHICH WAS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BANGOR`S PRECIPITATION FOR JULY
WAS 6.78 INCHES WHICH WAS 3.32 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCBW-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
BEEN RUNNING STABLE THUS FAR. TELCO WILL BE MONITORING THE CIRCUIT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO MAKE SURE IT REMAINS STABLE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA
CLIMATE...DUDA
EQUIPMENT...DUDA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.