Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 172343
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
643 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the region overnight. Low
pressure will pass well south of the state on Wednesday followed
by an upper level disturbance crossing the region from Quebec on
Thursday. High pressure will then rebuild over the region for
Friday and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
645 PM Update... Adjusted the sky conditions especially across
the downeast and coast to bring more clouds in based on the latest
IR satl imagery showing more clouds. Hrly temps were also adjusted
to meet the latest trends w/the northern and western sites cooling
steadily. Kept the pops alone w/this update.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure to our north will continue to slowly move east
toward New Foundland overnight. Meanwhile, low pressure will
approach from the west, as a secondary low develops east of the
New Jersey coast. With the secondary low passing well to our south
and low level dry air in place, any snow will be confined mainly
to central and downeast areas late tonight into early Wednesday.
Any snow accumulation will be less than an inch overnight. Across
northern areas, it will remain dry as low level dry air remains
across the region associated with the high to our north. There
will be a wide range in temperatures overnight as more in the way
of thicker cloud cover across central and down east areas keep
temperatures from falling too much, with lows here generally in
the mid to upper teens. However, across far northern areas skies
will remain mainly clear well into tonight and allow for decent
radiational cooling where low temperatures will range from the
single digits above zero to single digits below zero.

Weak low pressure will continue to move east of the New Jersey
coast and out to sea on Wednesday, as any light snow across
central and downeast tapers to scattered snow showers by
afternoon, with little in the way of accumulation. Across the
north, high pressure will continue to ridge across the area from
the northeast with dry conditions expected. High temperatures on
Wednesday will range from the lower 20s north and mid 20s to near
30 downeast.

Our focus will then turn to a weak weather system approaching
from the northwest later Wednesday night. This system has the
potential to bring a period of snow to mainly northern and
central areas Wednesday night. There is the potential to bring an
inch or two of snow mainly from the Katahdin region north. Lows
Wednesday nigh twill range from the mid to upper teens north and
upper teens to lower 20s downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Whats left of steady lgt snfl or sn shwrs across spcly Nrn ptns
of the region Thu morn will exit the FA by aftn withe max totals
potentially reaching 2 to 3 inches across the far N with
progressively lesser totals Swrd toward the Downeast coast.
Following the exit of this system, hi pres at the sfc and alf will
re-build ovr the region Thu ngt thru Fri, briefly interrupted by
some cldnss and possible flurries ovr the region late Fri into Fri
ngt from a weak and fast movg s/wv from Cntrl QB.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The entire long term looks dry and very mild as hi pres both at
the sfc and alf builds ovr QB and Nrn New Eng. This pattern is
part of an negative TNH teleconnection pattern durg this tm frame,
which will keep fresh arctic air well NW of ern Can and splits the
stm track N and S of the region. Uncertainty exits to when exactly
this pattern begins to break down, but suffice it to say for now,
the next chc of any sig precip will likely hold off to at least
nearly mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday
for the northern terminals (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL). VFR can be
expected through midnight at KBGR/KBHB. MVFR conditions are then
expected late tonight and into Wednesday in any light snow or snow
showers.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Thu will begin with IFR or low MVFR clgs/vsbys
in sn across the TAF sites durg the morn hrs, improving to VFR
clgs Downeast by Thu ngt and to high MVFR clgs Nrn TAF sites. All
TAF sites will then be VFR by Fri...contg so thru the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will gradually increase to small craft
advisory levels late tonight and continue through Wednesday. Have
cancelled the small craft advisory for the intra-coastal zone and
also delayed the onset of the advisory until 4 am.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd attm for these ptns of the
marine fcst attm. Wv hts, which will begin just below min SCA
thresholds on Thu, will gradually subside to 1 to 2 ft as sfc hi
pres settles ovr the region with wv pds arnd 9 to 10 sec. Kept
close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Hewitt
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Hewitt/VJN
Marine...Duda/Hewitt/VJN



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