Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271023
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND THE MILD SPELL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM WILL
ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXPECTED WARMING TREND TOOK A BIGGER JUMP THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY AS THE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE BEGAN TO MAKE ITS MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SLOWING THE WARMING TREND
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT PREVENT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH OUTSTANDING THANKSGIVING DAY WEATHER EXPECTED.
BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE AS WESTERLY FLOW TAKES
OVER. THIS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
WITH SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 70S
SATURDAY.

A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHT COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEN A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND IS SCHEDULED FOR ARRIVAL
AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER ECM RUNS BY
DAMPENING OUT THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE DIVIDE. WE SHALL SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING AREA WIDE
AT THAT TIME.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z - 28/12Z... VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC-
FEW250 THRU PD. LIGHT WINDS GENLY FROM 020-050 UNDER 5 KTS THROUGH
17Z...BECOMING 110-140 AT 05-08 KTS MOST AREAS THEREAFTER.
EXCEPTION WILL BE NM BOOTHEEL...WHERE 110-140/10-15G20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL MEAN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FROM NORTHEAST - EAST SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST BREEZES OVER THE NM
BOOTHEEL...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND
ALLOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS.
POPULAR MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LOWLAND MIN RH TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...LOWERING SLIGHTLY FRIDAY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE.
MOUNTAIN READINGS WILL END UP A FEW PERCENT HIGHER...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT NIGHT TIME RECOVERIES EXPECTED OVER ALPINE MEADOWS.
ELSEWHERE FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES CAN BE EXPECTED. FAIR TO POOR
VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           64  33  67  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              65  33  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  33  67  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  32  56  39  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  33  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  33  64  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  66  30  68  32  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  30  69  34  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  38  66  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               67  32  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  33  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  37  62  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  32  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  33  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  37  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           65  26  67  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   67  28  68  34  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  32  67  34  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               65  35  67  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 60  33  64  39  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               59  30  61  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                57  30  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 61  30  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               63  35  66  38  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               66  31  67  32  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            64  29  65  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  64  31  65  35  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   67  24  70  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              66  21  67  28  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 63  34  65  37  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  69  30  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 68  27  69  33  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  30  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  31  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT




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