Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 210153 AAA
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
751 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRIER DAY ON FRIDAY A BIT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE HAS
SEEPED BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THAT MEANS MORE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SUNDAY AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY
WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
EAST. THE AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY ONWARD THE REGION WILL SIT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH TRAPPED MONSOON MOISTURE. THIS MEANS ISOLATED
LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS AREA HAS STABILIZED. INITIAL OUTFLOW FROM SAC MTN STORMS DID KICK
OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MTS BUT THIS AREA
HAS STABILIZED SINCE THEN. LATEST HRRR HITTING WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY
AND THE BLACK RANGE FAIRLY HARD THIS EVENING SO KEPT HIGHER POPS IN
THERE.

17-HEFNER


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY HELP TO BRING MORE
HEAVY RAIN TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE WAS DOWN YESTERDAY...BUT HAS ALREADY BEGIN TO
REBOUND. PROGS SHOW PW`S BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL SUN-MON AS LOW LEVEL
SE WINDS RETURN AND UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN ON S AND SW FLOW
ALOFT...THANKS IN PART TO MOISTURE INGEST OVER MEXICO OFF OF TS POLO.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF ODILE`S RICH MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDLAND AREA...WORK BACK WEST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
PUSHES A FRONT INTO OUR AREA. PW`S ADVERTISED BACK UP TO NEAR
WHERE THEY WERE WHEN ODILE CAME THROUGH...1.5 TO 1.6". TOMORROW
MORNING MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE TO MOVE UP OVER THE
BOOTHEEL AND CURVE E. THIS LOOKS TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT FORCING
WITH A RESULTING BULLS-EYE IN QPF OVER AREAS WEST OF THE RIO.
LATER IN THE DAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES IN OVER THE FAR EAST
ZONES TO GIVE THOSE AREAS FORCING AND A RESULTANT FOCUS IN QPF
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CENTER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL SEE
THE LEAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WHILE THE E AND W EDGES SEE
THE BEST POPS.

MONDAY THE ENTIRE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT EQUAL CHANCES FOR
PCPN AS THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IS RELATIVELY UNIFORM...THE
FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED...AND UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL BE
TRACKING W TO E OVERHEAD. THE GFS GOES BONKERS WITH PCPN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA. HOWEVER THE NAM AND EURO MODELS SHOW AREA WIDE
PCPN...THEY SKEW THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH AREAS WEST ONLY LIGHT PCPN. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT
EAST ZONE BIAS WITH LOWER POPS WEST/HIGHER POPS EAST. WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT DEEPLY MOIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN.

TUESDAY THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE PASSED TO OUR NORTH AND A RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST. THIS PLACES OUR AREA UNDER A MUCH DRIER NW
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. PW`S SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO AN INCH OR
LOWER. WITH CONTINUED SURFACE EASTERLIES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STAY IN PLACE...BUT BEGIN TO ERODE ALSO. THIS WILL BEGIN A
PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN.

NEXT WEEKEND WE`LL BE WATCHING A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP PACIFIC UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE
WILL SEE INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

14-BIRD

&&

..AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 22/00Z...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SCT-BKN 035-055 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL WORK
INTO SOME LOWLAND AREAS THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL BE IN
SW NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING AROUND KDMN...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AREA MOVES UP FROM
MEXICO. SOME STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW COMES UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH GRAZES OUR AREA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AS CLOUDS AND T-STORMS INCREASE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH... WITH RAINFALL KEEPING SOIL MOISTURE
HIGH AS WELL. VENT RATES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25







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