Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232141
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
341 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and partly cloudy skies will continue,,,with breezy to
locally windy afternoons expected for most of the work week.
Windiest on Wednesday.  Temperatures will remain a little below
normal,,,before dropping a few degrees further on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery continues to outline complex full
latitude trough over the western states,,,with couples PAC jet-STJ
outlining a broad dry slot over northern Mexico. A major short
wave over southern California is seen entering the base of the
long wave trough. Subtle diffluence aloft arising from interaction
between both jet streams,,,also allows a series of minor impulses
to move over our area from the southwest. One was approaching
earlier today,,,which accounted for ACCAS observed this morning
over the El Paso area. It remains very dry at the surface with
dewpoints to the middle teens and area observing networks
indicating breezy west-southwest winds.

The southern CA trough will continue to approach and send
additional weak impulses across our area. These will enhance
afternoon southwest winds,,,with Wednesday as the windiest day
expected influenced by approach of the CA feature. This will send
a weak PAC cool front through Thursday,,,lowering our highs a few
degrees for the end of the week.

Pattern remains unsettled into the weekend and early next
week,,,as troughing continues over the western states. At times
this will return us under SW flow and allow highs to return near
or just above normal.

IMPACTS WEDNESDAY - Strong crosswinds and areas of blowing dust
with restricted visibilities possible. Some difficulty handling
high profile vehicles,,,especially along north-south routes.
Timed approach of strengthened winds aloft from SO CA trough with
aftn heating WED and attendant development of TX panhandle lee
cyclone,,,will result in the highest winds expected this week. Not
looking at an advisory at this time,,,but we look to approach it.
Sustained speeds in the 20-25 mph and possibly 30 mph in a few
spots are not out of the question. Highest gusts through gaps...passes
and along east facing slopes of north-south oriented mountain
ranges such as the Franklin range.


&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z-24/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW250 thru pd. West to sw winds of 15-20G30KTS thru 03Z
and after 17Z except stronger winds lingering longer on eastern
mountain slopes. Between 03Z-17Z winds will be at or below 12kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Persistent southwest flow over the region will keep temperatures
near normal with dry conditions for much of the next week. Winds
will be on the increase the next couple of days with southwest winds
of 15 to 20 mph Tuesday with near critical conditions expected...and
20 to 30 mph on Wednesday when a Fire Weather Watch is in effect.
Relative humidities will remain below 15 percent for almost all
areas through the week except highest mountain peaks. Some moisture
will try to push in from the east over the weekend...but will not
move much further east than the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 62  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              54  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              57  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              42  65  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   53  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             45  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  51  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               50  86  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               53  90  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            60  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  58  90  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  88  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          59  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           52  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  87  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                56  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               57  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                41  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 39  77  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               48  82  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               52  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            38  78  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   44  82  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              39  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 46  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  51  87  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 52  88  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          51  86  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  81  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

99/20/26


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