Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF AREA
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 TO 8000 FEET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND BUT START TO WARMUP AND GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE
NAM THE WETTEST AND THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSER TO EACH OTHER. WILL
LEAN CLOSER TO THE LATTER FOR QPF AMOUNTS SINCE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING CURRENT PRECIP AMOUNTS TODAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN
THE SACS AND NOW THEY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND LOST WHAT
FELL LAST NIGHT. THINK SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE
LOWER LEVEL PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT WAS UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF SACS IS GETTING PUSHED OUT...SO THINK LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE
7500-8000 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS TO 4-8 ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET IN BOTH THE SACS AND THE
GILA WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS BELOW THAT...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER LEVEL SNOWS SUNDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS AND
TEMPS ALOFT FINALLY COOL BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS GOING AS IS BUT LOWER AMOUNTS.
OVER THE LOWLANDS...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BEST CHANCES LOOK FURTHER WEST
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH FIRST 2
PERIODS...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW FOR TOMORROW ON HIGHS.

AS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...LIFT OVER AREA EXITS AND
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WNW ONE. THERE WILL BE ONE LAST
PUSH OF A BACK DOOR FRONT FOR SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT SHOULD START TO SEE WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AS
SOME RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL NOT GET MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT 3-5 DEGREES LOOKS ABOUT AVERAGE. ECMWF A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A BACK DOOR THU WHERE GFS JUST BARELY GETS
FRONT INTO ERN CWA AND QUICKLY PUSHES IT BACK TO THE EAST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF -RA WILL
RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH +RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY
SINKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS IF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE BY LATER SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL OF 6-12 INCHES REMAIN LIKELY. AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AN ADDITIONAL COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE EAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY HIGH MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP OFF A BIT NEXT WEEK AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL
OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS THAT VENT
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. IN ADDITION TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WHEN WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 40  55  41  55  35 /  90  50  30  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  58  39  52  33 / 100  50  30  20  10
LAS CRUCES              40  54  40  53  35 /  90  50  30  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              39  52  36  53  32 / 100  50  30  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              29  38  29  37  23 / 100  80  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   38  51  37  53  35 /  90  50  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             36  50  37  52  33 / 100  60  40  20  10
DEMING                  38  54  38  54  33 /  90  50  30  20  10
LORDSBURG               40  53  37  56  32 /  90  60  30  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  55  41  56  37 /  90  50  30  20   0
DELL CITY               42  55  39  51  30 / 100  50  30  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            42  56  40  56  36 /  90  50  30  20  10
LOMA LINDA              37  51  40  51  33 / 100  50  30  20  10
FABENS                  41  57  42  54  34 /  90  50  30  20  10
SANTA TERESA            40  54  40  54  35 /  90  50  30  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          40  55  41  54  36 /  90  50  30  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  54  37  54  31 /  90  50  30  20  10
HATCH                   39  56  39  56  34 /  90  50  30  20   0
COLUMBUS                41  53  40  54  37 /  90  50  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               40  54  39  53  34 /  90  50  30  20   0
MAYHILL                 32  41  34  43  27 / 100  70  40  20  20
MESCALERO               36  43  33  45  25 / 100  70  40  20  10
TIMBERON                35  42  33  45  28 / 100  70  30  20  10
WINSTON                 36  47  35  50  31 /  90  60  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               37  50  37  51  35 /  90  60  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               39  52  38  56  33 /  90  50  30  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            38  44  35  51  31 / 100  70  40  20  10
HURLEY                  38  51  37  52  33 /  90  60  40  20  10
CLIFF                   40  51  35  58  33 / 100  70  40  20  10
MULE CREEK              40  50  31  55  28 / 100  70  40  20  20
FAYWOOD                 38  49  39  52  35 / 100  60  30  20  10
ANIMAS                  41  55  38  57  32 /  90  60  40  20   0
HACHITA                 42  54  36  56  33 /  90  60  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          40  54  35  56  32 /  90  60  40  20  10
CLOVERDALE              40  52  39  55  34 / 100  60  40  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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