Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 230854
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
254 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Record high heat is back in play across the Borderland today as
high pressure has moved back over for the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain quite limited across the region and
favor the area mountains and lowlands far west. Much of the desert
areas will remain dry for the weekend with afternoon high
temperatures above 100 degrees. Late day Sunday and for much of
next week there will be a moderate increase in moisture across the
region with a resulting increase in shower and storm activity for
all areas. With more clouds and shower activity temperatures will
cool back to near normal for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor is clearly showing signs of a westward drift of the
upper high that was over OK and NE TX. This large feature is now
over the TX panhandle with models indicating this westward
progression to continue. The imagery also shows continued drying
of the air over N/Cent/W TX. The result of the upper high`s
approach today will be two-fold: 1) to shove the deeper monsoon
moisture channel west well into AZ with some drier continental air
moving into our region on E/SE flow at mid and lower levels; and
2) to provide a bit of increased stability aloft with subsidence
and warm air aloft. These two things can be gleaned by observing:
a) Satellite imagery over TX with hardly any CU over any part of
the state except the Gulf Plains and b) Last night`s EPZ sounding
which showed a sharp warm nose aloft just below the h5 level
providing the stable capping mentioned above.

For the forecast area the drier and more stable conditions should
manifest in a reduction in shower and storm development again
today and through much of Sunday. Any storms will favor the
mountains...mainly the Gila region with only a few over the far
western lowlands and possibly the Sierra lakes region. The
likelihood is for HOT and dry weather. Temperatures this afternoon
will be at or above record highs. Temperatures will remain hot
through the weekend with the high pressure system overhead.
Lowlands will be in the 100-106 range both afternoons.

Late Sunday, and more so for Monday through the rest of the work
week, moisture begins to increase back into the region as the
upper ridge nudges NW a bit towards the Four Corners and west.
This will allow the monsoon moisture plume to recycle back over
our region from the west and also allow moderate increases of
moisture from the Gulf on E/SE flow as an easterly wave
approaches. The depth and amount of moisture looks to remain
somewhat sub-seasonal but still PWs in the 1.10" to 1.25" range
look reasonable through the week. With the upper ridge bumped
north the capping should be reduced. This should bring about
increased shower and storm development for the entire region.
Still isolated to only scattered storms look to be the likely
outcome. With increases in moisture, clouds, and precipitation
temperatures should dip back down to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for most areas, but afternoon
terrain-based thunderstorms will develop over the Sacramento
Mountains and higher elevations of the Gila region later this
afternoon. Drier air aloft will continue to favor SW New Mexico
for thunderstorm coverage. Probabilities for thunder very low for
LRU/ELP...and only slight for TCS/DMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier has worked into much of the forecast area from the east as
high pressure has drifted back west over the region. This has
driven the best moisture of the monsoon plume west into AZ. Best
moisture favors far SW New Mexico for aftn/eve thunderstorms
today. Sacramento Mountains will still see some isolated activity
as well, but the lowlands of South-Central NM and Far West Texas,
should be DRT and HOT. RH will trend down today as temperatures
trend up. Expect an increase in thunderstorm coverage late Sunday
as the upper ridge shifts and allows recycled upper level moisture
to work into the area. This will boost RH values heading into next
week after they bottom out in the mid-Teens lowlands /lower-30s
high elevations over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                105  79 103  77 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca          100  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             103  72 101  71 /   0   0  10  20
Alamogordo             103  72 102  71 /   0   0  10  20
Cloudcroft              77  46  78  55 /  20  10  40  50
Truth or Consequences  102  72 101  72 /  10   0  20  20
Silver City             99  60  96  65 /  30  10  40  30
Deming                 104  72 103  71 /   0   0  10  20
Lordsburg              103  69 100  69 /  20  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro     104  77 103  76 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City              104  72 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           104  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              99  67  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                 106  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa           104  73 103  72 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ         103  74 101  73 /   0   0  20  20
Jornada Range          103  64 102  68 /   0   0  20  20
Hatch                  105  71 103  71 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus               103  74 103  73 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande              103  74 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 87  52  86  58 /  20   0  30  40
Mescalero               88  51  88  57 /  20  10  30  40
Timberon                85  50  86  56 /  20   0  30  40
Winston                 94  55  95  59 /  30  20  40  30
Hillsboro              101  65 101  67 /  30  10  30  20
Spaceport              102  66 101  70 /   0   0  10  20
Lake Roberts            97  52  98  56 /  30  20  40  30
Hurley                  99  63  97  65 /  30  10  30  20
Cliff                  100  57 100  62 /  30  20  30  30
Mule Creek              98  54  98  59 /  30  20  30  30
Faywood                100  63  99  65 /  30  10  30  20
Animas                 103  69  99  70 /  20   0  20  10
Hachita                103  70 101  69 /  10   0  10  10
Antelope Wells         100  68  99  68 /  10   0  10  20
Cloverdale              96  61  94  63 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

&&

$$

14-Bird



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