Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020839
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
239 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY BRINGING DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING TO THE EAST.
CONCURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXIST ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE TO THE EAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER A SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RIDGE FLATTENS WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ESTABLISHED WHILE WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST.
ATTENDANT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND PERIOD OF WARM DRY
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTIES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF OF BAJA WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING AROUND
5 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING BUT
OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  54  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  49  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  50  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              76  47  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  36  60  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  47  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  45  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  79  47  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  49  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  53  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               80  50  77  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            81  50  80  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              74  52  70  53  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  83  52  82  53  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  52  79  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  48  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           76  42  79  45  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   74  45  77  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                79  53  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               75  51  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 65  41  65  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               66  42  68  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  40  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 68  39  68  43  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               71  43  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               77  44  79  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            71  37  71  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  75  44  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   76  43  76  40  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  40  74  38  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 73  46  71  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  80  51  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 78  46  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  47  80  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              79  46  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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