Area Forecast Discussion
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423
FXUS64 KEPZ 272230
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
330 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong Pacific Storm System will bring strong winds and blowing
dust to the area on Tuesday. Winds will actually start in the
Sacramento Mountains late tonight, then spread in to the lower
elevations by late Tuesday morning, with gusts reaching over 60
mph in a few areas. A few rain and snow showers will affect the
Gila Region, with an inch or two of snow possible above 7500 feet.
Quieter weather will reign for the remainder of the week, with
temperatures cooling into the lower 60s for the lowlands on
Wednesday, but climbing back into the 70s by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sharp trough bringing rain to southern California today will head
east across Arizona and New Mexico through tomorrow. Winds aloft
will increase starting late tonight into the pre-dawn hours, with
exposed ridgelines in the Sacramentos seeing gusts over 50 mph
before dawn. Model soundings show that the strong inversion around
700 mb this morning will scour-out overnight, diminishing the risk
of strong downslope winds in NE El Paso/WSMR area late tonight,
though a few isolated gusts around 40 mph would not surprise me as
winds of 30 to 40 knots will be screaming just aloft (possible
LLWS at KELP)

Very deep mixing tomorrow...up to around 650 mb...will tap into
55 to 65 knot winds aloft, with the strongest winds aloft mainly
oriented just east of a DMN-TCS line. Upgraded the High Wind Watch
to a Warning for the eastern half of the CWA, with a wind advisory
to the west.

Given wind direction of 250-260, dust plumes from northern
Chihuahua will mainly be focused over the Lower Valley SE of El
Paso, with local dust sources still reducing visibilities
elsewhere. White Sands National Monument will likely also emit
dust, and Lordsburg Playa has proven to be very sensitive this
year. Winds west of Lordsburg will be on the low-end of advisory
criteria, but enough to kick up isolated dust plumes with very low
visibility.

Some precip looks likely in the higher elevations of the Gila
Region, with snow levels dropping to around 7,000-8,000 feet
overnight, and holding as the Pacific front moves through. A
brief mix will be possible even down to Silver City (around 6000
feet). An inch or two of snow will be possible above 7,500 feet,
possibly effecting Emory Pass and NM-15 north of Pinos Altos.
Some higher snowfall amounts possible at some of the SNOTEL sites
above 8500 feet.

After tomorrow, the week ahead looks quiet. Temps will drop around
5 to 8 degrees below normal on Wednesday, with temperatures
somewhat slow to moderate as winds become easterly (but light)
Wed/Thu.

A much weaker subtropical jet and northerly shift in the polar jet
will lead to warmer temperatures and lighter winds by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...
Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z...Increasing clouds through the evening hours
with SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 across the region by 03Z.
Scattered 1-3SM -SHRASN BKN020-030 expected to develop mainly over
the Gila region and to a lesser extent into the Sacramento
Mountains which will continue off and on through 29/00Z. W to SW
winds of 15-25G35KTS will decrease this evening to 10-20KTS by 03Z
but start increasing again after 12Z to 25-35G50KTS out of the
WSW and creating areas of BLO 3SM BLDU by 18Z and continuing
through remainder of period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific storm system will cross the region over the next day or
so and bring a return to very windy conditions for Tuesday with
sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph and gusts over 60 mph possible.
Some areas east of the river will experience critical conditions,
especially over Hudspeth County and into far southeastern Otero
County with some areas west of the river keeping relative
humidities above 15 percent. A slight cool down in temperatures
is expected Wednesday but temps will rewarm back toward 70 degrees
by Friday and Saturday. Wind speeds starting Wednesday are
expected to remain well below critical thresholds but relative
humidities in the lowlands will be mainly in the teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 51  71  44  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  73  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              42  67  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              44  69  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              29  37  20  35 /  20  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences   44  64  36  57 /  10  20   0   0
Silver City             38  48  32  51 /  40  50   0   0
Deming                  41  64  34  59 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               40  61  30  59 /  20  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro      51  69  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               43  73  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            47  77  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              46  65  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  46  73  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            46  69  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          48  67  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           39  66  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   43  65  37  59 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                44  67  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               47  69  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  53  29  49 /  20  10  10   0
Mescalero               34  49  26  45 /  20  10  10   0
Timberon                34  49  27  46 /  10   0  10   0
Winston                 33  46  25  51 /  30  40  10   0
Hillsboro               39  54  31  55 /  20  30   0   0
Spaceport               39  64  35  57 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            31  41  20  50 /  60  60   0   0
Hurley                  38  51  30  52 /  20  30   0   0
Cliff                   36  53  24  56 /  50  60   0   0
Mule Creek              37  46  27  54 /  60  60   0   0
Faywood                 38  50  31  53 /  20  30   0   0
Animas                  44  65  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 42  65  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          42  64  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              40  59  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ404-
     407-411>413.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ410>413-
     417.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ112.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM MST Tuesday for
     NMZ414>416.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ403>405-
     407>409.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for TXZ418-
     419-423.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for TXZ418>424.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz



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