Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 251941
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
341 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
No major changes in the short term forecast. We have been in this
pattern for at least 2 maybe 3 weeks now and there appears to be
no changes in the near future. The East-west oriented upper ridge
continues to control the weather pattern across the southern
CONUS. A wave developing over the central gulf is forecast to
intensify overnight and move toward the MS/LA coast Tuesday
morning. As it pushes onshore it should help to increase moisture
a bit across Southwestern/West Central GA. This will help to
increase the convective coverage across those areas for Tuesday
afternoon and evening but still only expecting General storms to
develop. All in all afternoon/evening diurnal convection will
continue with maximum coverage around 30-40 percent Tuesday.
SBCAPE values are expected to get a bit stronger Tuesday with
reading in the 1500-2500 J/kg range so may see a bit more
potential for wet microbursts and lightning. Temps should continue
slightly above normal with Heat Index values remaining below 105
so no advisory expected.

01


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Models remain in good agreement for the week. There are some
differences toward the weekend per location of the deep moisture.
Through at least the end of the work week a ridge of high pressure
will be the dominant feature with diurnally driven convection each
afternoon and evening. By the weekend a trough sets up over the
Mississippi Valley...but the H5 ridge will keep it from pushing too
far east. This is where differences occur. The GFS brings the gulf
moisture into much of the CWA while the ECMWF and Canadian models
keep the moisture to the west of the CWA. Will maintain chance pops
through Friday and raise pops to high chance...mainly across north
Georgia...by the weekend and early next week.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms have begun to
generate across the area. Will see this convective activity
continue through the evening hours then subside by 02z-04z. Winds
are mainly out of the W-SW and will stay there through the TAF
period. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less with some gust to 20kt
in and around TSRA activity. Not expecting any issues with
ceilings of VSBYs. Will see another round of SHRA/TSRA Tuesday
afternoon between 19z-00z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  30
Atlanta         74  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  30
Blairsville     67  88  69  88 /  30  40  30  50
Cartersville    72  94  73  94 /  30  30  20  30
Columbus        74  94  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     74  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  30
Macon           74  96  74  96 /  20  30  20  30
Rome            72  94  72  94 /  30  40  20  40
Peachtree City  71  93  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
Vidalia         74  95  75  97 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...01



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