Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 300925
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
425 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.


DEESE


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR FROM
BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
LOWER CIGS ARE RIGHT ALONG AN COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND THEREFORE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR AND -RA FOR THE
ATL TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT HOWEVER AS CLEARING
SKIES TAKE OVER WITH VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY WITH 14G24KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /  10   0   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   5   5   5   0
MACON           55  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   5   0   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE



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