Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 030027
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
827 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER EASTERN TN HELPING PRODUCE
SCATTERERD TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. RUNNING VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT TAF SITES BEFORE CONVECTION WANES...AND ONLY CLOUD
DEBRIS REMAINS. CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AS
MOST SITES SHOULD BE LARGELY VARIABLE..PARTICULARLY AROUND ANY
DYING STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PREVAILING WIND AT ATL SHOULD
REMAIN WESTERLY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A LIGHT EAST WIND BY EARLY AM.
EXPECT SIMILAR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ISSUES ON WEDNESDAY AT MOST
TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 18Z LASTING THROUGH 23Z OR SO. WINDS
AGAIN WILL BE A CHALLENGE DURING THE DAY AS THERE IS NO REAL
SURFACE FEATURE TO DRIVE A DOMINANT WIND DIRECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS...VSBY AND WIND SPEEDS
MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION AND THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS.


30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL PATTERN.  THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
MODEL PWATS SHOWING BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT MAINLY OVER
EAST/SOUTH PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH BEST TIMING BETWEEN 2-
8PM.  SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ALL BUT SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS SO THAN THE PAST 2
DAYS. GUIDANCE BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE AND SEE NO REASON
TO STRAY.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IN CONTROL THRU THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HARD TO FIND A SINGLE FEATURE TO LOCK IN ON
BUT THERE IS A BROAD SHORT WAVE APPARENT ON SAT OVER KY THAT
SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS WEEKEND COMPARED WITH
THUR/FRI WHICH WILL BE DRIER IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA.

INSTABILITY APPEARS STRONGLY DIURNAL AND NOT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PATTERN. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WHICH AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5-1.6 THUR/FRI JUMP UP TO 1.6-1.85 THIS WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WHICH IS NEAR THE 91 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF ALL-TIME DAILY
MAX VALUES BASED ON KFFC/KAHN SOUNDINGS SINCE 1948...BASICALLY
NEAR 98-99TH PERCENTILE BUT NOT A RECORD VALUE. WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN ALERT TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND.

SNELSON

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  82  63  82 /  40  50  30  40
ATLANTA         65  82  66  81 /  20  40  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     56  75  58  77 /  40  60  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    60  81  63  82 /  20  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        66  86  67  87 /  20  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  50  30  40
MACON           63  86  65  86 /  40  30  30  30
ROME            61  82  63  83 /  20  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  83  64  83 /  20  30  20  20
VIDALIA         67  85  67  85 /  60  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30



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