Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 270712
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF LOWER MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AT SITES. MAIN CHALLENGE IN
THIS FORECAST IS THE WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AT
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WINDS BECOMING JUST NW
OF N AT ATL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION UNTIL 16Z AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11




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