Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 031109
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
609 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
One more dry day and then things get a little wet for the short
term. The storm system over the southwest U.S./Northwest Mexico will
continue to develop as it shifts eastward. This will spread moisture
into the southeast U.S. later this afternoon and
tonight...continuing into Sunday. At the surface...high pressure
will build over the mid Atlantic states. As the surface ridge
strengthens over the CWA tonight and Sunday...overrunning moisture
will bring light rain and drizzle to much of the CWA beginning this
evening. This will continue into Sunday with more of a steady rain.
This will also be a cold rain...especially across north Georgia
where temps will remain in the 40s. Some areas in the mountains will
struggle just to get to 40 degrees.
LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
No significant changes to the Long-Term Forecast trends with the 00Z
model cycle. Medium range models remain consistent with recent runs
and in fairly good agreement through the majority of the period. Wet
start to the period as the region remains under strong southwesterly
upper-level flow. Models still flip-flopping a bit concerning the
amount and distribution of any instability available with the main
short wave as it sweeps through overnight Monday into Tuesday. I
still think there will be sufficient elevated instability across the
west and south for at least a slight chance of thunder Monday night
and Tuesday, mainly across the west/south Monday night and across the
south Tuesday. Still seeing decent shear in the mid-levels but the
lower-level shear is not as impressive. Overall severe threat looks
marginal at best at this time. Large-scale upper flow remains more
west to southwest behind the initial system keeping the better cold
air north and west of the state until Thursday and into next weekend
as the large, deep upper trough settles into the eastern seaboard.
VFR conditions through late tonight. Cirrus deck over the region
will continue this morning...slowly lowering to a mid level deck
by this afternoon. Cigs will slowly lower over the forecast sites
tonight as light rain/drizzle spread across north Georgia and
eventually moving into central GA late tonight. Toward 12Z Sun
cigs across north GA will drop to mvfr and remain mvfr for the
rest of Sunday. Winds near calm or light northwest...should become
light northeast later this morning and remain east to northeast
through the forecast. Wind speeds will increase toward 12Z Sun
with a few gusts.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on timing of RADZ tonight
Medium on Cigs late tonight and Sunday
High on remaining elements
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 59 43 47 43 / 10 60 90 80
Atlanta 59 44 49 45 / 20 60 90 80
Blairsville 54 38 45 41 / 20 80 90 70
Cartersville 57 43 48 44 / 30 80 90 80
Columbus 62 46 56 50 / 10 40 80 70
Gainesville 58 43 45 42 / 20 70 90 80
Macon 62 42 55 49 / 10 40 70 70
Rome 55 42 48 45 / 40 90 90 70
Peachtree City 60 42 49 44 / 20 50 90 80
Vidalia 62 46 65 57 / 5 20 40 60