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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230501 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1201 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND MORNING FOG.

LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...SOME
LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. BUT
AFTER A DAY OF CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATION...IT SHOULD BE FAR LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF STRATUS WILL ALSO
REDUCE THE EXTENT OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS THE EXTENT
OF THE RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

SOME STRATOCU 2-4KFT AGL ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF WACO. EXPECT THIS
LAYER TO LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RATHER MEAGER...A LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LLJ WILL REACH
25-30KTS BEFORE DAWN...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE BETTER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THE MAY SUN WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX OUT THE MVFR DECK BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED...
ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCING THIS WITH THE 24-30HR PORTION OF THE 06Z DFW TAF. THE
STRATOCU WILL BECOME VFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH
DEEPER.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS AS WELL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DEWPOINTS ARE RECOVERING TODAY SO TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER. LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY
WHILE THE BOUNDARY STALLS AROUND I-20. OVERALL...THURSDAY WILL BE A
NICE DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS.

RIDGING WILL BUILD ALOFT TO THE WEST THEN SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME OF IT MOVING EAST ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONT AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA. OUR EVALUATION OF
SHORTWAVE LIFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTION PROFILES
INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 500MB
(18,000 FEET) WITH DRIER AIR BELOW. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER THE CWA FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. IF THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO TAP MOISTURE
CLOSER TO 850 MB... THEN A PSEUDO INVERTED-V SOUNDING WOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ERGO...WE ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL BUT WILL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OF THE PANHANDLE CONVECTION MOVING
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HAVE DECIDED TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP IT DRY THOUGHT THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONAL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.      75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  88  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              65  90  70  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  84  65  81  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            62  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          63  87  70  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  91  73  88  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  90  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         65  91  71  88  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            66  91  70  87  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  91  70  86  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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