Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 301809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AND S/SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TAF
SITES. FOR THE METROPLEX...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES...BUT A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 8-13Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WILL CARRY VCTS DURING THIS
TIME WINDOW. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 13Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NW NEAR 10KT. LOW LEVEL SATURATION BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS.

FOR WACO...SOUTH WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-
LATE MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH IT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
IN THE SPAN OF 24 HOURS...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO
NORTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRANSITING OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS. THIS MOIST UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FORTHCOMING
SHOWERS WILL BE LESS INTENSE...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN TODAY...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE RAINY AREAS AND THE SUNNY SPOTS. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE RAIN
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOW
THE TEMPERATURE RISE ELSEWHERE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH
THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED...
BUT THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY...WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
UNLIKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE IS NO LONGER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND REALIZE THE INSTABILITY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER TO WICHITA
FALLS. THIS CLUSTER OF PRECIPITATION WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
WARM...MOIST AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR VAD
WIND PROFILES SHOWING WIND DIRECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 925 TO
700 MB IN THIS AREA. THIS FAIRLY DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETREATING/REORGANIZING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER PER 08Z/3AM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

THIS ZONE OF STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY. AT LEAST
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND WENT AHEAD AND LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 TODAY...SO MAINTAINED AT LEAST A 20
POP DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...INCLUDING OVER MOST OF THE
DFW AREA. RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ASCENT...SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION.

THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY IS SIMPLY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMMON...MAKING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT
LIFT IN A VERY DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL TEND
TO HOLD IN TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 80S AGAIN TODAY FOR THE DFW AREA. THESE UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY AS THE ZONE OF
ASCENT AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AT LEAST
WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUNSHINE WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT EXPECTED
OVER THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
SUCH...THE ORGANIZING SHORTWAVE OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. BASED ON MASS FIELDS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE...FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE SSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
AFFECT THE REGION.

THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO CANTON
LINE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2
INCHES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE 150% OF NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL BE QUITE LARGE...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING
THE SITUATION. IN SUCH SCENARIOS...RAINFALL TOTALS CAN QUICKLY ADD
UP.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HOWEVER...WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ENCOMPASSING MORE OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY.

AJS/CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  73  85  70  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
WACO, TX              90  74  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  68  78  66  83 /  70  80  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            82  71  83  67  87 /  40  50  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  71  82  66  85 /  50  70  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  74  85  71  87 /  20  40  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           85  72  83  68  86 /  20  50  50  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         88  73  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  84  67  86 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






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