Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 141222 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
A LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN SOUTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 15-16Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL START TO
IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING AND CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON /18-20Z/.

AT 12Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH SOUTWHEST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING THIS FRONT IS NOT HIGH AS SOME OF THE
MODELS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX BY 00Z WHILE OTHERS
HOLD IT OFF UNTIL 11-12Z MONDAY. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY /20 PERCENT/ AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT /30
PERCENT/. THE CHANCES AND TIMING OF ANY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DURING THAT
TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR AREA WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AS WELL. QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

78.JG

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  50  69  48  73 /  20  30  10   0   0
WACO, TX              74  51  72  43  77 /  20  30  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  48  66  45  69 /  20  50  30   5   0
DENTON, TX            69  47  68  45  71 /  20  30  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          68  49  67  45  71 /  20  40  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            71  52  70  49  72 /  20  30  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           70  51  69  46  72 /  20  40  30   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         73  55  72  48  75 /  20  30  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            75  52  73  46  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  45  70  44  74 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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