Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 032345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NOW AND THE ONLY CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED RAIN
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR NOW BUT
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME BKN/OVC080 AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY
01-02Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR -RA THROUGH ABOUT 4Z.
OTHERWISE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH FLOW AROUND 10KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST
AROUND THE BASE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED GREAT LAKES TROUGH. A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ARE LIMITING
FACTORS WHEN IT COMES TO MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GOOD BULK SHEAR
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY...THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE SOUTH OF EVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

SO FOR THIS EVENING...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WITH GOOD
SHEAR IN PLACE A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD...AND WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REINFORCES THE
SOMEWHAT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ESSENTIALLY
ACTING AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST COAST
TROUGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A SLOW WARMING TREND BENEATH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW FINALLY CHURNS ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SUNDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A DRYLINE MAY SET UP TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY
TO DELVE INTO ANY SPECIFICS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    55  81  55  81  59 /  30   0   0   0   0
WACO                51  80  53  80  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
PARIS               52  78  51  76  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENTON              51  79  52  79  56 /  40  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  79  51  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  81  56  82  58 /  30   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             52  79  53  78  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA           53  79  54  79  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              51  80  54  81  57 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       51  80  53  81  57 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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