Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 282148
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

TODAY WAS A REALLY NICE WAY TO END THE WORK WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE REGION SITS UNDER UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THANKS TO BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS. HAVE HAD SOME CIRRUS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE BRUNT OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OFF TO
THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING SITS OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF NEB/KS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING WINDS W/SW
ACROSS THE CWA. HAD A WARMER AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...AND COMBINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE
WINDS...ENDED UP WITH GREAT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXCEEDED
EXPECTATIONS...IN SOME LOCATIONS BY QUITE A BIT...AS PORTIONS OF
THE SWRN CWA /PHG/ SOARED INTO THE LOWER 80S...AND EVEN THE HW 81
CORRIDOR GETTING INTO THE MID 60S.

QUIET CONDITIONS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTY LYING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW. BUMPED UP LOWS TONIGHT...POSSIBLE IT WASNT
ENOUGH...WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY AND NEVER GO TOTALLY CALM...HAVE
LOWER/MID 30S GOING. FOR TOMORROW...BUMPED UP HIGHS CWA-WIDE...BUT
NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS WE HAVE REACHED TODAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS THAT MAY BE PRESENT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SETS UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...NEAR
THE SD/NEB BORDER. MODELS SHOW THAT THE BRUNT OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST OFF THE SFC HAPPENED TODAY...WITH THINGS REMAINING
NEUTRAL/IF NOT DECREASING A TOUCH INTO TOMORROW. STILL LOOKING AT
HAVING THOSE W/SWRLY WINDS AND WE START THE DAY OUT WARMER...AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD 60S/70S AGAIN...BUT MID SHIFT CREW WILL HAVE
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THOSE HIGHS WITH NEW MODEL DATA. CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD BREAK ANOTHER HIGH TEMP RECORD FOR HASTINGS...BUT
FALL JUST SHORT AT GRAND ISLAND...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BEGINNING WITH THE BIG PICTURE SATURDAY EVENING. A POSITIVE TILTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL MANITOBA TO OREGON.
THIS WAVE SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS RATHER QUICKLY
AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA...RESULTING
IN A HUGE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. AT 00Z SUNDAY THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH MAINLY EAST/WEST AND BE LOCATED ALONG
THE SDAK/NEB BOARDER. BY MIDNIGHT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...CLEARING THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

EXPECT THE HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INITIALLY TO BE
THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...THIS TYPE OF ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS FROM A 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM MONTANA AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THE OTHER ISSUE SATURDAY NIGHT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE NAM DOES SHOW IT BECOMING
SATURATED AND SUB-FREEZING BELOW 900 MB FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL
CHECK ADDITIONAL DATA BEFORE MAKING DECISION.

GOOD COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLE OVER AREA. WILL START TO SEE RETURN FLOW DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY BUT HIGH TEMPS WONT REALLY RECOVER UNTIL TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TRY TO BUILD A LITTLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW SO EXPECTING
JUST A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EACH DAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC DO BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH WED
NIGHT/THUR MORNING. BETTER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT
REALLY IN PHASE SO WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING DOWN THE ROAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. ANY CLOUD COVER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SFC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

YOU GOTTA LOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LATE FALL...LESS THAN 2
WEEKS AGO WE WERE TALKING RECORD COLD AND NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT
POSSIBLY THREATENING RECORD WARM HIGHS FOR SATURDAY.

HERE IS A QUICK RUNDOWN OF RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES:

GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 71 IN 1932 (CURRENT FORECAST 70)

HASTINGS: RECORD 68 IN 2003 (CURRENT FORECAST 70)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



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