Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200609
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY
NEAR KEAR AND MOVING EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...AND AXIS OF DENSE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE AND AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CONTINUES AT BOTH KEAR
AND KGRI. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
STRATUS SHIELD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY. IN FACT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR
BY 12Z...AND AT KGRI BY 14Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>048-061>063-074>076-084>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ006-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT


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