Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Been a dry but breezy day across the CWA, and outside of a small
batch of sub-1000ft stratus that move through eastern areas this
morning, skies have been clear. In the upper levels, southwesterly
flow remains in place across the Plains, between high pressure
extending from TX into the Great Lakes and a trough digging south
along the west coast. At the surface, the CWA sits to the east of
deepening low pressure over CO/WY, resulting in gusty south winds.
Sustained speeds have generally been in the 15-20 MPH range, with
gusts near 30 MPH.

Looking to tonight, no notable changes were made. Models agree
with  no big change in the southwesterly flow aloft and keeping
the forecast dry. Expecting the gusty southerly winds to remain in
place through the overnight hours, and though skies are going to
continue to be mostly clear, it looks to be be a warm night.
Forecast low temperatures for most of the CWA are in the lower
70s, putting warm minimum temp records for GI/HSI in danger (see
climate section below).

As we get into Friday, another warm, windy day is expected.
Southwesterly flow remains in place in the upper levels, with
models  not showing any significant waves moving through the
region, and expected the majority/if not all of the CWA to be dry
through the afternoon hours. Surface low pressure continues to
deepen tonight/tomorrow, and is centered in the NErn CO area. A
stationary boundary extends northward into central SD, with a dry
line continuing to meander across portions of western NE/KS. High
temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower/mid 90s across
the CWA, and one concern for late tomorrow will be the potential
for some widely scattered thunderstorms near this dry line thanks
to the heating of the day. Continued the 20-30% PoPs across the
western 1/4- 1/3 of the CWA during the late afternoon-evening
hours, but once that activity wanes, it`s possible there won`t be
much going on through the remainder of the overnight hours (a bit
of a change from previous model runs). There continues to be the
potential for some storms to be strong/severe, the western CWA
remains in the Day 2 Marginal Risk, will keep that mention going
in the HWO.

Another concern will be with fire wx, across far western areas,
during the late afternoon hours. At this point, forecast doesn`t
quite hit near critical levels, but it`s close. Would be more
concerned if the winds were going to be more southwesterly than
southerly. At this point won`t mention in the HWO, but will be
sometime for the mid shift to take a close look at.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Saturday through Tuesday, no change in this being an unsettled
period for the region, with potential for widespread appreciable
precipitation for the CWA. Looking at the pattern aloft, models
are in pretty good agreement showing a closed low having
developed, located over NV. This system continues its gradual
eastward trek, ending up over UT by 12Z Sunday and E-NE CO by 12Z
Monday. Through the day on Monday and into Tuesday, models start
to diverge, the ECMWF keeps the closed circulation going and
sliding northeastward into the Dakotas, vs the GFS which opens the
system up more before swinging it through the Plains. Larger
scale lift increases with time ahead of the system, with periodic
lead shortwave disturbances also sliding through.
Saturday/Saturday night, much of the precipitation is shown by
models to be mainly confined to the western half of the CWA, and
it could end up being another pretty warm day for the eastern
half. Better chances spread further east on Sunday, but the more
widespread activity may hold off until late Sunday and through
Monday. Some question with how long precipitation lingers into
Tuesday, the 12Z ECMWF/GEM is quicker ending things than the GFS.

The main surface cold front looks to linger around mainly just to
the west of the CWA, and really doesn`t make its push through the
area until Monday night. Confidence in temperatures Sat-Mon is not
high. Sat is expected to be the warmest of the 3 days, with 80s
forecast, near 90 possible in the southeast. Highs gradually fall
both Sun-Mon, with highs only in the mid-upper 60s for Tuesday.

The remainder of the long term period is currently dry in the wake
of this system, with highs making a gradual climb back into the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR CIGS and VSBYS are expected through the period with winds
being the primary concern. While gusty surface winds will decouple
over the next few hours...the pressure gradient will remain tight
across the region...with surface winds near 15KTs expected to
continue through the overnight hours. These winds will be
light...however...compared to the 50+ KT winds just 1000 ft above
the ground. As a result...have strong wind shear in the TAFS
through the overnight hours...before a little mixing begins just
after sunrise and surface winds once again increase across the
region. Expect winds tomorrow to be just as strong as this
afternoon...if not a few KTs stronger...with gusts of 30-35KTs
out of the south expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Record warm minimum temperatures for September 22nd will be in
danger, thanks to the warm lows forecast for tonight. The
records/current forecast is as follows:

Grand Island record: 67 degrees, set in 1936
             forecast: 72 degrees

Hastings record: 65 degrees, set in 2008, 1969 & 1945
         forecast: 73 degrees

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ082.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Rossi
CLIMATE...ADP


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