Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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452
FXUS62 KILM 102301
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
600 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL PICK UP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS A WINTRY
MIX FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL
BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL FILL SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL. THE ONLY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CITING THE
PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ABATE FOR
THE MOST PART LEADING TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THU. A MOISTURE STARVED AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE LOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE TO GET WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM AND THROWN
BACK WESTWARD WHILE THE LOW IS STILL IN THE VICINITY OF LAND.
ALSO...WE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LARGE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY ON BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO
REACH THE GROUND. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE...
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED AND STRONGEST AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO FRI
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING A PERIOD OF
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH YOU WOULD NOT
EXPECT WITH THIS TYPE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM...THERE IS A DEFINITE
MOISTENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED A WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...MAINLY JUST W OF THE IMMEDIATE GRAND STRAND AND
WESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY ON NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CAPE FEAR AND LUMBERTON AREAS. IN THESE AREAS...LIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH ICE PELLETS OR SNOW AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ALL SNOW. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
TEMPS VERY EARLY FRI MORNING...BEFORE DAYBREAK...SHOULD BEGIN TO
RISE WITH THICK CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
ONSHORE WIND TAKING HOLD FOR A TIME. ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD TURN TO
LIGHT LIQUID RAIN DURING FRI AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS ARE
CURRENTLY 20/30 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. POPS
WILL BE LOWEST WEST OF I-95 AND IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH WEST
OF I-95...IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS WILL
BE A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT AND AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET OR ICE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS JUST A TRACE
COULD MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY GROUND AND ROAD CONDITIONS AND THIS
WILL DEPEND ON GROUND TEMPS AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FRI
EVE...ENDING THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND ON FRI...UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S...MID 40S WELL S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. EVEN COLDER TEMPS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY ON
SATURDAY AS LARGE 1040+MB HIGH SINKS INTO IOWA. NOT  MUCH CLOUD
COVER BUT TEMPS WILL BE HELD WAY BELOW CLIMO. WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD HIGHS MAY HAVE A LARGER N/S GRADIENT
THAN NORMAL WITH FAR NWRN ZONES STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 WHILE GTOWN AND
WBURG `WARM` INTO THE MID 40S. THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD IF NOT THE
ENTIRE WINTER. MOST PLACES ABOUT 2 DEGREES +/- 20 DEGREES. SAVING
GRACE OF NOT GETTING COLDER (PER ECWMF MOS) IS THAT WINDS STAY UP
AND WE DO NOT DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH A COLD START AND SHALLOW MIXING ON
SUNDAY EXPECT THE COLDEST HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THIS IS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS ON THE RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRECLUDE SUCH COLD THOUGH TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED WARMING AND MOISTENING ON MONDAY AS
NEXT TROUGH BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA AND THE CHILLY HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. SHOULD PRECIP ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IMPLIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS) THEN THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF WINTRY P-
TYPE. THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL RAMPING
UP OF RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN
APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A FAIRLY ROBUST RAINFALL LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONTINUED COLD WEATHER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GUSTY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6 KTS. SOME CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE
OVER FLO OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THURSDAY...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW...NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY AND DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
AND PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL WATERS AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AS CHANNELED VORTICITY
MOVES BY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM 4-8 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
A DECREASE LATE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER
INTO THU MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THU WILL BE DROPPING FROM NEAR 20 KT EARLY TO
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR
LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT...TO
AROUND 15 KT...AS NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACHES. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE NW OR WNW THU...VEERING TO NE AND E THU NIGHT
AND FRI AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY JUST TO OUR S AND
THEN PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE ON A ENE TRAJECTORY. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO NW FRI EVE AND FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THU MORNING...SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 4 FT THU AFTERNOON AND 2 FT OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE
BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT EARLY SATURDAY A BIT PINCHED
BETWEEN EXITING STORM SYSTEM AND LARGE, STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. CONDITIONS COULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE HIGH PROGRESSES EAST AND WINDS UP TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF AN EASING OF THE
GRADIENT. THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS HEADING
INTO MONDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT COULD REALLY RAMP UP WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON THIS EVENING. ISSUED A MWS FOR
LOWER WATER LEVELS FOR THE GRAND STRAND REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK



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