Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 292332
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
632 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT IS LOOKING
MIGHTY WEAK AND SPOTTY WITH COVERAGE STEADILY DECREASING. WILL CUT
BACK ON COVERAGE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE AS IT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
PRESENT RATE THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER A VERY
SIGNIFICANT AREA. REST OF FORECAST GOOD TO GO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:

MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN
OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH
HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS
POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND
LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES FROM 00Z-09Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A
ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT
COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST
OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST
WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT
OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A
BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO
AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT
EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND
IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST
PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN BAND OF -RA MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CIGS...AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE LIMITED AS THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST JUST AFTER
00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS/HRRR DO FAVOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRI. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z
AND TEMPO -SHRA FOR THE COASTAL SITES FROM 09-13Z. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH A HEAVIER
SHOWER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z... BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE
SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. STILL EXPECTING SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY
STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND
WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT
GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM
ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD
WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT
WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS
WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK




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