Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 142315
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Models suggest that isolated snow and rain showers will move
through the area this evening, then push south of the area by
midnight. These are tied to an upper trough and reinforcing
surface trough across eastern SD that will settle southward
tonight. No significant accumulation expected although HRRR and
Highres ARW/NMM suggest a tenth of an inch if you happen to be
underneath one of the showers.

Much above normal temperatures return Friday into Saturday ahead
of the next cold front which arrives Saturday afternoon. Highs in
the 40s tomorrow, and in the mid 40s to upper 50s on Saturday,
depending on which side of the front.

Models do suggest that the trough currently across northwest
Mexico eventually gets shunted north Saturday night into Sunday.
the northern edge of this moisture could bring a wintry mix to
extreme southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday morning. Meanwhile,
an elongated area of Pacific moisture to our north never gets a
strong enough push into the area so no precip expected from that
feature.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Significant warming takes place Monday through Wednesday of next
week ahead of a major pattern shift that hits our area on
Thursday. Temps in the 40s Monday and Tuesday, but likely into the
lower 50s for Wednesday. That`s the last warm day though, as an
arctic front arrives on Thursday. This also could signal a shift
to a wetter pattern into the Christmas Holiday period, but then
again, that`s still 10 days away, and a lot can change. Fairly
high confidence on the colder pattern, but lower confidence on any
precip/snowfall patterns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 512 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

MVFR conditions at KOFK will trend toward improvement over the
next few hours, with potential for very light rain/snow in or near
the site. Kept ceilings at VFR levels at KLNK, with a scattered
MVFR mention, and also mentioned vicinity showers there for a few
more hours. At KOMA, think conditions will remain just above VFR
thresholds, and while I can`t rule out a stray sprinkle or flurry,
coverage (and chances) seemed too low to mention it. At all sites,
conditions will improve after midnight to VFR, with clouds
dissipating. Light northwest winds this evening and tonight will
become southwesterly on Friday but will remain 10kt or less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mayes



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