Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 280856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
356 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Pcpn forecast over the next couple days is problematic at best at
this point as confident in model QPF fields is low at best.
Latest runs of NAM/GFS/ECM 6hr QPF all suggest widespread pcpn
should be occuring over the great lakes region this evening in
association with rather strong vort max approaching from the west.
However...check of regional radar up there showing nothing but an
isolated cell in wrn MI. At any rate...with minor impulses
undercutting building upper ridge...cannot totally discount
potential for TSRA activity over the CWA. Just question though if
areal coverage...widespread in nature...will be as great as
advertised. Given this...feel somewhat compelled to just maintain
slight to low-end chance POPs through the Tuesday night period.
Otherwise...slightly cooler air mass creeping in from the north
will keep max temps seasonal the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC continue overall to prog potential for pcpn under upper
level ridge situated over the cntrl conus throughout the majority of
the extended periods. Thus will continue token small pops with focus
over the srn CWA. Otherwise...near or just below normal max temps
generally in the low/mid 80s are expected through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Still expect some fog to develop later tonight...with chances
highest across western Iowa. Look for MVFR vsbys mainly 10z-13z.
Recent RAP model runs also hint at some sct-bkn MVFR clouds as
well but did not mention any cigs with those. We could see some
2500-4000 foot cigs by Sunday afternoon.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller



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