Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 072015
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK BUT MOIST ELY
FLOW PRODUCING 50+ DEW POINTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EVEN
UP NEAR OR ABOVE 50 IN THE FOOTHILLS. WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING HELPED TO GET THE
CONVECTION FIRING THERE WITH OTHER STORMS ALREADY FORMING IN AND
JUST DOWNWIND OF SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NWD TO INCLUDE MOST OF FREMONT AND NATRONA
COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH PW`S...SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING OF CELLS
AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATION. CAPE IS BUILDING IN ALL
AREAS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SW. TIME TO GET ON THE RADAR SO WILL
KEEP THIS SHORT. WITH PW`S REMAINING AS HIGH AS AN INCH INTO
WED...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SO IDEA OF HEAVY RAIN WORDING LOOKS GOOD. NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF N-NE
SURFACE WINDS WITH ANOTHER COOL FRONT. MORE MOIST...E-NE UPSLOPE
FLOW WED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS
WEST. BOTTOM LINE...A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN
THE CENTRAL AND WRN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY TSTMS CAUSING CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

CONSISTENT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING WEDNESDAY EVENING...HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PWATS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HELPING TO BRING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
IT IS ANTICIPATED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN OPEN WAVE...THOUGH WILL
STILL CONTINUE TO SEND AREAS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WAVE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND SUNDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE WITH VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. THIS
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MOST ACCURATE. THE GFS
DEMONSTRATES THE INITIATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING ITS BASICALLY DRY SOLUTION
THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST LEAVES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIMITED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WITH A FAVORING TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST TAF
SITES FROM KJAC TO KCPR WILL BE AT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH TODAY BUT STILL A FEW AROUND...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ014-015-
017>020-022>024-026>030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS



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