Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 301040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.

DRIER AIR FILTERS IF BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. USED SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AT CRW...BKW...AND EKN. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF SITES.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 07/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ



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