Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 111454
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS MIXED OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD WITH DENSE EARLY
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG...AFTERNOON CU AND A WIDE DIURNAL SWING
IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...THERE MAY BE
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN.

BLENDED IN MET AND MAV FOR HIGHER HIGHS TODAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.  LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES DURING AFTERNOON HEATING ON SATURDAY.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...ENDING UP BACK AROUND THE 1.8 TO 2.0 MARK BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN
OH/SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHERN IL BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME STORMS
ON THE STRONGER SIDE...MAINLY IN OHIO. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD...GOOD FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
STORMS MOVING AND AVOID WIDESPREAD WATER ISSUES...ALTHOUGH
REPETITIVE STORMS COULD DEFINITELY CREATE PROBLEMS WITH TIME.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS A SYSTEM INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. DRIER AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL THEN MOVE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIETER PATTERN UNFOLDING NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.  RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE VLIFR DENSE FOG EKN
AND CRW BY DAWN...WHICH WILL THEN BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHER SITES MAY HAVE MVFR PRE-DAWN MIST WITH BRIEF IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

NOTHING MORE THAN CUMULUS FRI AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

FRI NT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM WITH MVFR MIST AGAIN BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE EASTERN RIVER VALLEYS BY 06Z.

SFC FLOW WILL BE CALM AT NT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY
N...DURING THE DAY FRI.  LIGHT S FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FOR
A TIME FRI...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT S AGAIN...BASICALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERALL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG THROUGH 12Z FRI
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.