Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHRISTMAS DAY STARTS COLD...CLOUDY...AND WINDY...WITH A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SAT IR IMAGERY AS OF 0730Z SHOWING
WELL DEFINED STRATCU DECK STRETCHING FROM KENTUCKY...NORTHWARD INTO
INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SLATED TO OCCUR...AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE THAT WILL LEAD TO A SUNSHINY CHRISTMAS DAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND SE OHIO. FOR TEMPS...LATCHED ONTO INHERITED
FCST TEMPS FOR TODAYS HIGHS AND USED A BC BLEND IN COMBO WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES TO COME UP WITH OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BEFORE A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN THE MODEL SPREAD...SO WILL NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ONE THING THAT ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON IS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL...SO WILL SLOW DOWN INITIAL POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM IS A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH AND THEN A SECONDARY WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE SECOND WAVE...KEEPING IT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS TRENDING THIS WAY AS WELL. STARTED WITH
WPC GUIDANCE...AND THEN BLENDED IN ANOTHER DOSE OF THE GFS. HAVE THE
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THEN HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE
COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS UNDER A RAGGED STRATCU DECK THIS MORNING
WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS IN PLACE. WILL CARRY SOME WIND GUSTS
IN THE 15-20KT RANGE ACROSS SITES INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
GRADIENTS RELAX BY ABOUT 15Z AND WE SHOULD SEE A SLACKENING OF SFC
WINDS THEREAFTER. CAA STRATCU WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
THROUGH TODAY WITH A TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z...WORKING
WEST TO EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TODAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KMC







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