Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 301940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS DUE TO A
LACK OF OBVIOUS TRIGGERING MECHANISMS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
VORTICITY LOBE AND 850 MB JET SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY.
WILL RAISE POPS ALONG THESE FEATURES...BUT OTHERWISE KEEP A FAIRLY
GENERIC DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF FRONT AS THE UPPER TROF
HANGS BACK. IT NOW APPEARS BEST SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY E OF OH RIVER. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST HANDLING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOIST AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

IFR IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
IN LOW CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.