Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 280715
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
315 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms today in warm sector. Cold front late
tonight, with gradual drying. Additional cold fronts and
showers cross through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

Another unsettled day is expected across the region. Frontal
boundary, initially stalled out across CWA, is lifting back north
this morning, as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.
Expecting isold showers and thunderstorms this morning, particularly
across the north as boundary lifts across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon and
evening hours during peak heating, and once again, some storms could
become severe with hail and damaging wind the primary concerns, but
overall, not expecting quite the level of threat as occurred
Saturday, as dynamics and instability not projected to be as strong.
SPC has the northern 2/3 of the CWA in a slight risk, with southern
counties in a marginal. There is also quite a bit of uncertainty as
to whether or not flash flooding will be a major concern today, but
for now, have opted to keep the watch in place, and will allow
future shifts evaluate whether to drop the watch early.

Cold front will move into the region late tonight through early
Monday, with gradually drier trends towards morning behind the
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Saturday...

During this period, models have the upper trough lifting out of
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and becoming a closed upper low over
eastern Canada. This will finally push the frontal system out
of our area during Monday and allow high pressure with drier
air to move in later Monday and Monday night. Thus, look for
decreasing rain chances from west to east on Monday, with
temperatures returning to near normal with much lower
humidities.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM Saturday...

This period features a large upper level low over eastern
Canada with a long wave trough over the eastern United States.
This spells a cooler trend for the Ohio Valley, with
reinforcing cold front dropping across the area through mid
week. Some showers will accompany these fronts, but no heavy
rains are expected. Upper ridging and high pressure will return
for the later part of the work week with dry weather and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Bulk of convection has died off across the area. Areas of MVFR
and IFR/LIFR conditions linger in post rain stratus and fog,
with IFR/LIFR most prevalent across parts of southeast Ohio and
northern WV. Expect general improvement to MVFR and VFR after
14Z. However, showers and thunderstorms will ramp back up again,
particularly after 18Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions in
storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/28/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible early Monday, and at times throughout the week in
showers and storms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520.
OH...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ102-103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL



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