Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 041902
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW WITH THE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY SWEEPING A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL LATER
TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE
SLOWER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND USED THE NAM FOR DETAILS.
BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY
HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES EAST.

THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND
WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT
AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WORKING WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH
SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY
MARGINAL FOR ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME
CONCERN FOR WATER PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP
BANDS BECOMES CLEARER.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AWAY FROM THE NAM IN THIS SET UP. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT ON OUR MENU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE...WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOSS OF
HEATING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THUNDER CHANCES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO RIVER
EARLY TONIGHT. FOR THE TAFS...JUST MENTIONING VCTS. DRY SLOT
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND VFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR PKB...HTS AND CRW.
BUT FRONT WILL STALL IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS FOR THE EAST...AFFECTING CKB...EKN. BKW ON
THE EDGE AND WILL INCLUDE THEM IN THE DRY SLOT. ON THURSDAY...MOST
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL MAJOR TAFS SITES...WILL TREND RAPIDLY
TO IFR/LIFR WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WRAPPING WESTWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL SET UP TO OUR SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND IFR CONDITIONS MAY
VARY.

THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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