Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO SURFACE FRONTS AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
DRIFT TOWARD FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WITH IT WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE CALM THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DEPTH...BUT FAIRLY STRONG FLOW EXISTS AT THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL.
THIS SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING VERY STRONG AS THEY SHEAR
OUT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MOST ELEMENTS DO NOT FAVORABLY ALIGN...SO
SPOTTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN VORT MAX
ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW H5 VORT MAXES MOVING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY. DESPITE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AFTERNOON HEATING OVER ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES CAN PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DROPPING AOB 14 PERCENT MONDAY NIGHT.

LESS COVERAGE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...HAVING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...KEEPING THE LOWLANDS DRY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY UPPER
80S TUESDAY AND AROUND 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. AT
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WENT
WITH A COMBINATION OF SUPER BLEND AND NAM NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG
TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH
20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE W AND FROM THE
S...WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE LESS
FOG THAN RECENT NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH IFR IS STILL FCST FOR EKN. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SCATTERED TO CODE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS OTHER THAN A VICINITY
MENTION IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM
MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL ON SUNDAY...BUT TIMING THIS IS
DIFFICULT GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES PLAYING OUT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY
IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JW


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