Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 220533
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front
approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1042 PM Thursday...

No significant changes made this evening. Expect river valley
fog once again...perhaps with a bit later of an onset than last
night.

As of 225 PM Thursday...

A few pop-up showers dot the radar across southern portions of
the area this afternoon, where the cu field is a bit more stout
than farther north. One or two showers may stand up into a
thunderstorm.

The causative weak upper level low drifts southeastward tonight.
This, along with loss of heating, will eradicate the showers
and cumulus around sunset.

Stacked high pressure builds tonight and Friday. Deep layer
light flow will allow for widespread dense valley fog tonight,
which then gives way to a mainly sunny Friday by late morning.

Temperatures close to mostly well converged guidance in this
benign pattern. Lowered the valleys tonight per the MET. The
MET did seem high for Friday, but raised some spots a notch or
so. Temperatures continue above normal per continued upper level
ridging, and no air mass change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Continued hot and dry under high pressure in the short term
period, with foggy mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

High pressure will continue to dominate for the first part of
next week. Could be a few diurnal pop up showers across the
mountains during peak heating hours early next week, but for the
most part, we should remain dry and hot. An upper trough and
surface cold front will move into the area around Thursday, with
scattered showers and slightly cooler temperatures to round out
the end of the week. QPF at this point still looking to be
minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z Friday thru 06Z Saturday...
As of 125 AM Friday...

High pressure dominating through Friday spells VFR mostly
clear; outside of widespread dense valley fog 07Z to 13Z Friday
affecting all the major TAF sites. Afternoon SCT stratocu.

Winds will be near calm overnight and light northeast by later
Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Friday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 09/22/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



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