Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 180548
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1248 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses Saturday night. Many may see first
flakes of season Sunday. High pressure much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 930 PM Friday...

Hi-res models are starting to get into the Saturday afternoon
time frame and do show a small potential for some 40kt wind
gusts across the far west. New NAM soundings have also backed
off on the low level inversion just a touch which could allow
for better momentum transfer. With this in mind, have opted for
a wind advisory across KY and VA counties. Next shift will have
to watch this trend to see if it continues to push east for
possible expansion of the advisory.

Also did some major surgery on temperatures tonight. Still have a
non-diurnal trend taking over, but the valleys have decoupled and
temps have tanked the last couple hours. It will take a while for
the trend to turn around so have lowered lows and slowed onset of
warming.

As of 145 PM Friday...

Models show pressure gradient tightening overnight and Saturday.
With winds expected to stay up most of the night, will go above MOS
guidance for lows. Some showers should move into southeast Ohio late
tonight, progressing eastward on Saturday.

Strong low level winds look threatening with showers, but meso
models show a low level inversion that could help protect and keep
the stronger winds from mixing to the surface before the front. Am
concerned with winds mixing to the ground with the front itself
however. Will need to monitor this situation closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Models continue to track low pressure just north of our area,
with the cold front pushing through overnight Saturday. The
strong cold front is expected to move into our Ohio counties
starting at 00z and exit the West Virginia mountains around 06z.

As the cold front pushes through and colder air moves in, rain
will transition over to snow or rain/snow mix in some areas.
The transition will begin in our northern mountains around 08z
Sunday and our northern and Ohio counties around 12z. Central WV
and the southern lowlands are expected to remain mostly rain
throughout the weekend, but may see a few flakes falling early
Sunday. Snow showers are expected to hang around the mountains
into Sunday evening. Current thinking has accumulating snow only
in the mountains. 1 to 3 inches are expected Saturday into
Monday

Winds with the front are expected to be gusty. The higher
elevations can see gusts up to 45 knots. Elsewhere, some strong
gusts will be possible any thunderstorms that may form.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Went with a blend of models. For the most part high pressure
dominates this period with the exception of a short wave trough
moving through early Wednesday. The mountains may see light
precipitation falling as snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z Saturday through 06Z Sunday...

As of 1245 AM Saturday...

A warm front will bring some showers...mainly across the north
Saturday morning, with local MVFR conditions developing,
particularly across southeast Ohio, and northern West Virginia.

After 14Z, gusty south-southwesterly winds will develop, with
sustained winds in the teens, and gusts in the 20 kt range.

After 00Z sunday, a cold frontal boundary will move through the
region, with showers, and widespread MVFR and local IFR
conditions developing, particularly after 02Z. In addition,
there is the potential for an uptick in winds with the front.

Included llws at several sites through early this morning with
llj overhead.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions
could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible Saturday night in rain, possibly mixing with snow
across the north by dawn. IFR may linger through Sunday across
the northern mountainous counties in upslope snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...TE/RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...SL


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