Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271904
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream
systems. The current system crosses tonight into Tuesday, and
then another crosses late Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

A weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the Ohio
River between Ohio and Kentucky, eastward through central WV,
this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms were firing up south of the front,
especially over eastern Kentucky, aided by a weak upper level
disturbance, a moisture feed from the southwest impinging upon
the front, and surface heating. All of this was leading to an
effective bulk shear axis of 40-45 kts extending up through
eastern Kentucky, along with 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE. This has
resulted in an earlier / faster severe weather threat, in
concert with the eastward forecast trends from SPC.

North of the front, low level moisture has kept heating to a
minimum, helping to maintain a stout stable layer there until
the front moves north in increasing low level south to southwest
flow ahead of the main system approaching from the west this
evening.

The main system arrives tonight, after the loss of daytime
heating. While this may temper the severe threat somewhat,
associated organized convection associated with the main upper
level short wave trough, over the middle Mississippi Valley this
afternoon, may still pose a wind and excessive water threat, to
the degree it is able to hold together.

The system pulls off to the east Tuesday afternoon, leaving low
level moisture in the form of low clouds in its wake.

Near term temperature guidance resulted in slightly higher
values in the warm sector tonight, wet-bulbing into the mid and
upper 50s in the lowlands again, and slightly lower highs
Tuesday versus the previous forecast and the latest MET/MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Cold front moves away from the region with high pressure
building in from the north. In response...precipitation chances
should come to an end by late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Another system approaches the area for Friday bringing
precipitation chances back into the region. This system should
then push east Friday night with high pressure building in again
Saturday Night and Sunday. Expect chances for showers and storms
will decrease from the west on Saturday with the region expected
to be dry Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

A weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the Ohio
River between Ohio and Kentucky, eastward through central WV,
this afternoon. North of the front, low level moisture will
continue to bring MVFR ceilings at times across the middle Ohio
Valley into this evening, as spotty light rain moves across.

South of the front, heating beneath an upper level wave has
prompted scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Any
heavier / stronger thunderstorm this afternoon into this evening
can bring brief IFR conditions.

The upper level wave was one of two disturbances ahead of the
main upper level trough crossing the lower Ohio and TN Valleys
this afternoon. That trough, and its associated surface low
pressure system and cold front, will bring more numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the area tonight into Tuesday. MVFR
conditions will become much more common overnight tonight as a
result.

Low level moisture will result in widespread MVFR stratocu
Tuesday once the cold front crosses, which will be Tuesday
afternoon including beyond the TAF period.

Gusty west winds in the mountains will diminish later this
afternoon. Otherwise, surface flow will be light and variable.
Light southwest flow aloft may strengthen a bit for a time
overnight tonight, and then become light west for Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and category of showers and storms
later this afternoon into Tuesday will be variable. There may be
post-rain IFR fog and stratus overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM


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