Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A THIN STRATUS LAYER
PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS HEATING
COMMENCES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWRD INTO THE
REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW THIS MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST  CO AND WAS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA. THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS HELPED
PROVIDE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF. THE REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR REMAINING SECTIONS. ACTUAL DEW POINT GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER ARKANSAS AND LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THEN
LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE WORK
WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER US BUT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...NOT EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...OR FRIDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS ON
SATURDAY WILL STILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN WITH UPPER NINETIES READINGS. A PATTERN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL AFFECT THE RIDGE ALOFT
ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGING ALOFT OUT WEST...WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  94  72  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  69  96  72  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  70  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  67  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  74  98  74  97 /  30  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




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