Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ESE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR A MWT...TO TXK...TO JUST E OF
ASL...TO LFK AND CXO LINE AS OF 0230Z. DID SEE A FEW TOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST W OF SHV SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET...WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHRA HAVING RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BNDRY IN SE CASS COUNTY TX...AS WELL AS OVER
TXK. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS BNDRY EASING A
BIT FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA
BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY LATE...WITH ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY
WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. CAN/T
RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...BUT WITH THE CURRENT CU FIELD AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD FORM LATE...AS WELL AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST
ATTM.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.

DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  20  20  70  70
MLU  69  84  66  74 /  30  30  70  80
DEQ  56  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  62  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  63  81  61  72 /  20  20  70  70
TYR  62  81  60  72 /  10  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  10  20  70  60
LFK  69  82  66  77 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



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