Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.