Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 282340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAY WHICH ALLOWED FOR SOME 4-5KFT CEILINGS TO MAKE IT
NORTHWARD OUT OF SE TX INTO THE LFK TERMINAL. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN ERODING ON ITS NORTHWARD FLANK THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
NORTH. HOWEVER...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUR IFR
CEILINGS AND 3-5SM VSBYS ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING BUT FEEL LIKE IF CONDITIONS MAKE IT THIS LOW...IT
WOULD BE TEMPORARY.

WHAT WILL NOT BE TEMPORARY IS THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND/OR
SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ITS THAT
MIXING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 14-20KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35KTS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRANSITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS
THE SRN U.S...AS THE BROAD-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN U.S.
DEPARTS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TAKES ITS
PLACE. AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER ERN CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE
REGION DURING SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP US WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER
70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO OF NOTE...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS OUR REGION DURING SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX. CURRENT MODEL BLEND INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WE WILL NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL
LEAVE THAT DECISION UP A LATER SHIFT TO DETERMINE AREA/TIMING WITH
NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME CHANCES FOR SHWRS FOR MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY...AND WILL SEND OUR TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...A QUICK RECOVERY BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL IS
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY. SLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVHD ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROF. MORE RAIN CHANCES MAY CREEP IN DURING THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  73  58  75  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  46  70  57  74  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  45  71  53  73  52 /   0  10  10  20  30
TXK  50  72  58  73  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ELD  47  71  57  71  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
TYR  54  73  60  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  74  59  75  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  54  75  58  75  60 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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