Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 021740
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1140 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through today and into the overnight
hours. However, cloud cover will continue to increase from sw to
ne throughout the pd, and cigs will gradually lower as well. Rain
will begin late this evening and continue to increase in coverage
and intensity, as it spreads from sw to ne. Flight categories will
deteriorate as cigs/vsbys lower and rain intensifies during the
latter half of the 18Z TAF pd. Otherwise, light e to sely winds
will gradually back to a more e to nely direction, with speeds
generally around 6-12 kts. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The mid-morning visible satellite imagery indicates an extensive area
of thick cirrus with some AC quickly streaming NE into the
region...associated with the subtropical jet ahead of the digging
upper level trough now entering Nrn Baja/NW old MX. After another cold
start to the morning...16Z temps have rebounded nicely into the mid
50s to near 60...with another 5-7 degrees warming expected through the
afternoon despite the thickening elevated cloud cover. The mosaic
radar imagery indicates a band of -RA/-SHRA now developing across the
Hill Country of Scntrl TX...as well as just SE of the SE TX coast.
This rain continues will continue to spread NE through the afternoon
in response to isentropic forcing along the 305-310K surfaces...possibly
reaching the far SW counties in E TX and lower Toledo Bend Country between
21-24Z.

Have had to make quite a few changes to the forecast this
morning...mainly to significantly beef up sky conditions from sunny
to mostly cloudy. Have also raised max temps 2-4 degrees given the 16Z
obs...as well as additional warming expected through the afternoon.
Have also toned back low chance pops to slight chance for the far SW E
TX counties...and extended slight chance pops into Sabine Parish LA
as this isentropic forcing will quickly begin to spread into the
region later this afternoon. The air mass remains quite dry...and will
need to saturate from the top down late this afternoon through the
overnight hours resulting in light QPF amounts to start this rain event.

Will address the very wet and prolonged rain event in the afternoon
discussion. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  47  49  46 /   0  80  90  90
MLU  66  47  50  47 /   0  80  90  90
DEQ  63  44  46  44 /   0  70  90  70
TXK  64  45  48  43 /   0  80  90  80
ELD  64  45  47  44 /   0  80  90  90
TYR  64  47  49  44 /  10  90  90  90
GGG  64  47  49  45 /  10  80  90  90
LFK  67  48  52  49 /  20  90  90  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12



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