Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 270525
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
AS MVFR STRATOCU POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH...MID LVL DECKS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LVLS MARGINAL FOR INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KTS BTWN
27/15-18Z...WITH MID LVL DECKS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...ALTHOUGH A VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE OUT OF LOW VFR DECKS AT KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG IN AFTN. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY OTHER WINTER PRECIP TYPE. NE WINDS BECMG 5 KTS AFTER 28/00Z
WITH MID LVL DECKS POSSIBLY DECREASING TO SCT VRBL BKN
OVERNIGHT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








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