Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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107
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Jul 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 23-Jul 25 2016 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 23-Jul 25 2016

            Jul 23     Jul 24     Jul 25
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        3          2          1
06-09UT        3          2          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        2          2          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 23-Jul 25 2016

              Jul 23  Jul 24  Jul 25
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days (23-25 Jul) due to the high flare
potential and favorable location of region 2567.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 23 2016 0516 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 23-Jul 25 2016

              Jul 23        Jul 24        Jul 25
R1-R2           30%           30%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: A chance exists for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
days one and two (23-24 Jul) due to flare potential from Region 2567. A
slight chance for R1-R2 radio blackouts exists on day three (25 Jul) as
Region 2567 rotates beyond the west limb.



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