Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 310031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2014

            Oct 31     Nov 01     Nov 02
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2014

              Oct 31  Nov 01  Nov 02
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms exists on day one (31 Oct) due to possible residual activity from
Region 2192 which is now just behind the west limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 30 2014 0135 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2014

              Oct 31        Nov 01        Nov 02
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
due to possible residual activity from Region 2192 which is now just
behind the west limb.



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