Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXXX10 KWNP 011230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Sep 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 01-Sep 03 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 01-Sep 03 2015

            Sep 01     Sep 02     Sep 03
00-03UT        2          5 (G1)     3
03-06UT        2          4          2
06-09UT        1          4          3
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        4          3          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: G1-Minor storm levels are likely near the end of day one (01
Sep) as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. G1-Minor
storming is expected to continue into day two (02 Sep) before decreasing
down to below G1 storm thresholds on day three (03 Sep) as
the CH HSS effects begin to wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 01-Sep 03 2015

              Sep 01  Sep 02  Sep 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 01-Sep 03 2015

              Sep 01        Sep 02        Sep 03
R1-R2            5%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.