Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 090031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 09-Feb 11 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 09-Feb 11 2016

            Feb 09     Feb 10     Feb 11
00-03UT        4          3          2
03-06UT        3          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        4          2          1
12-15UT        3          1          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          3
21-00UT        3          2          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. The
geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels for a few
synoptic periods on day one (09 Feb) in response to CME effects. Day two
(10 Feb) is expected to experience some unsettled levels of geomagnetic
response as CME effects wane. Day three (11 Feb) is expected to see a
return to quiet conditions for most of the day, until late in the day
when geomagnetic response is expected to reach unsettled to active
levels due to an approaching CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2016

              Feb 09  Feb 10  Feb 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2016

              Feb 09        Feb 10        Feb 11
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. Solar
activity is expected to continue at very low levels with occasional
C-class flares likely and a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate
radio blackouts) all three days (09-11 Feb).



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