Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 28-Jan 30 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 28-Jan 30 2015

            Jan 28     Jan 29     Jan 30
00-03UT        3          3          4
03-06UT        2          3          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          3          2
21-00UT        3          4          4

Rationale: There is a chance for G1-Minor storms on day three due to
continued influence from the southern crown polar coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 28-Jan 30 2015

              Jan 28  Jan 29  Jan 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 28 2015 0441 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 28-Jan 30 2015

              Jan 28        Jan 29        Jan 30
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts and a slight chance for R3-Strong activity over the next three
days (28-30 Jan) as Region 2268 continues to be the dominant spot group
on the visible disk.


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