Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 240227
DGTGUM
PMZ172-PMZ181-010000-
CHUUK-MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1230 PM CHST WED MAY 24 2017

...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...

ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH JUNE AND INTO
JULY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS. BY AUGUST...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN AND
PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
MOST OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING
KAPINGAMARANGI...THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND MOST OF THE US-AFFILIATED
MICRONESIAN ISLANDS SOUTH OF 8N SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. HOWEVER...ANY LOCATION COULD EXPERIENCE A
DRIER THAN NORMAL MONTH FROM NOW INTO THE EARLY SUMMER. THE
DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAVE NOT SET UP YET
AND THE SET-UP IS LATER THAN NORMAL. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED
TO HELP BRING THE SPRINGTIME AND EARLY SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
STILL INDICATES THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS IS IN
SHORT-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). ALSO...KWAJALEIN
AND WOTJE ATOLLS ARE IN SHORT-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2
OF 4). SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED DRY
CONDITIONS AND ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ON APRIL 24..THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...

EXTREME DROUGHT IS AFFECTING UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ATOLLS. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING
WEEKS AND ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N SUCH AS
WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...LIKIEP...AILUK AND ENEWETAK
ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...MALOELAP...WOTJE AND UJAE
ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS.
MAY HAS EVEN BEEN RELATIVELY DRY FOR MAJURO, AILINGALAPLAP AND
JALUIT...BUT THESE LOCATIONS HAVE HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL UP TO MAY.

CHUUK STATE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...

FANANU AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE HALL ISLANDS HAD SOME RAINFALL
RELIEF AND ARE NOW CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL 0 OF 4).
HOWEVER...THE ISLAND COULD SOON MOVE BACK INTO A MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITION (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD TO THE NORTHWESTERN (NAMONUITO ATOLL) AND THE WESTERN ISLANDS
POLOWAT/POLOSUK/PULAP). WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THESE CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH JUNE OR JULY
...AND CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS AUGUST. THE SKILL OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IS NOT
SO GREAT AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND WILL IMPROVE BY JUNE. EASTERN
MICRONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF ABOUT 10N ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME
DROUGHT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY    MAY       MAY
                                         (1-22) NORMAL   % NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14   3.33      34
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  0.18   2.50       7
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  0.45   7.30       6
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  1.97   7.35      27
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  1.74   7.31      24
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  2.15   4.41      49
FANANU            7.27  2.58  5.82  3.50  6.06   9.00      67
ONUON             4.50  3.27  6.83  5.60  2.87   9.00      32
POLOWAT           3.98  2.63  2.66  3.04  3.10   6.88      45
WENO CHUUK       11.37  8.27 15.74  7.15  8.95   8.23     109

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD
HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS WOTJE... UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...LIKIEP...MALOELAP AND OTHER NEARBY ATOLLS RECENTLY. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT
ISLANDS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) THROUGH THE
NEXT 5 DAYS AND LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL FOR
KWAJALEIN...WOTJE AND ATOLLS BETWEEN 8 N AND 10N LATITUDE WILL RANGE
FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS UP TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO SHOULD EXPECT AROUND 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

HALL ISLANDS NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON...

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS SHOULD GET
AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. IF THAT RAIN OCCURS...IT WILL
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR THE HALL ISLANDS. WE WILL MONITOR AND
IF SIGNIFICANT RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR...THE DROUGHT SEVERITY MAY BE
INCREASED. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CHUUK STATE ISLANDS AS WELL. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GET AROUND
ONE HALF INCH OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
10 DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE WELL-MAINTAINED AT ALL LOCATIONS SINCE
PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 1 JUNE 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER
CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...


CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
MICRONESIA EXCEPT FOR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE
CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND
SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU
FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO
CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/W.AYDLETT/KLEESCHULTE

$$


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