Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FGUS72 KCAE 191709
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GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-
061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-051715-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1209 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY
LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS
SOUTH CAROLINA...

AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

            ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING FEBRUARY 19 2015...THE HYDROLOGIC
AREA RECEIVED PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM 0.50 INCHES SOUTHEAST
AND 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES CSRA AND NORTH MIDLANDS. PLEASE SEE
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP FOR MORE DETAILS.

            ...SOIL MOISTURE...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID FEBRUARY 17 2015 SHOWED NO AREAS IN
DROUGHT BUT A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH AREA WAS ABNORMALLY
DRY. PLEASE SEE DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.

             ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF FEBRUARY
19 INDICATED STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF
GEORGIA. PLEASE SEE WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.

             ...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

LAKE THURMOND...
FEB 19 2015    327.3 FEET
FEB  5 2015    326.9 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS 0.4 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD...
FEB 19 2015    435.8 FEET
FEB  5 2015    435.0 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS 0.8 FEET

LAKE MURRAY...
FEB 19 2015    358.0 FEET
FEB  5 2015    357.6 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS 0.4 FEET

LAKE MARION...
FEB 19 2015     75.5 FEET
FEB  5 2015     74.5 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS 1.0 FEET

LAKE WATEREE...
FEB 19 2015     96.1 FEET
FEB  5 2015     96.7 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS 0.6 FEET

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS...SCE&G...SANTEE
COOPER AND DUKE ENERGY.

       ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

NEAR TERM...THROUGH MONDAY FEBRUARY 23 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE GRIDDED FORECASTS
FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT WEATHER.GOV/CAE.

THE 6- TO 10-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 24 TO FEBRUARY 28
CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE 8- TO 14-DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 26 TO
MARCH 4 INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 DISPLAYS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON
TEMP/PRECIP OUTLOOKS.

                 ...SUMMARY...

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.

CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
RIVER FLOOD SEASON THAT BEGAN IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY. IT IS
NORMALLY EXPECTED THAT RIVER FLOOD EVENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH. HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON ENDS IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL...OR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES...THOUGH THE CHANCE AT REACHING WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IS
DECREASING AND IF EL NINO CONDITIONS DO OCCUR ARE ONLY EXPECTED FOR
A COUPLE OF MONTHS BEFORE RETURNING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. PLEASE
SEE WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON ENSO.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS MARCH 5
2015.


               ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE
CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV

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