Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT THU FEB 5 2015

...2015 WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...

INTRODUCTION.

DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUES A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (NOT
FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO
RIVER FLOODING. ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THESE FACTORS INCLUDE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE
WEST BRANCH...JUNIATA...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. ALSO COVERED ARE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
LOWER ALLEGHENY BASINS...INCLUDING AREAS FROM WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES IN THE NORTH...THROUGH CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THURSDAY FEBRUARY 5TH 2015 THROUGH THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 19TH 2015.

IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW
OR BELOW AVERAGE.

DETAILED DISCUSSION.

TWO WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING IS NEAR AVERAGE.

CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
NO ACTIVE FLOODING IS OBSERVED IN THE REGION.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STATE
COLLEGE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS (JANUARY 5TH 2014 -
FEBRUARY 4TH 2015) IS MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...RANGING FROM 50 TO 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE WETTEST
LOCATION HAS BEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CLEARFIELD COUNTY.

SNOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE. SNOW CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS DUE TO A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA. SNOW DEPTHS OF 10-20
INCHES ARE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REPORTS SNOW COVER...THE DEPTHS ARE
LOWER...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THIS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY
1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES WHERE THE SNOW IS THE DEEPEST.

SNOW DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES INCLUDE THE NOAA/NWS
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER
(WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...THE COMMUNITY RAIN, HAIL AND SNOW NETWORK
(COCORAHS) AND OTHERS. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE SEEN AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

RIVER ICE...AVERAGE. RIVER ICE FORMATION IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. WHILE MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
REPORTING ICE COVERAGE...MANY CHANNELS REMAIN OPEN OR PARTIALLY
FROZEN. IF A RAPID WARM UP OCCURRED...SOME ICE JAM FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

FOLLOW RIVER ICE CONDITIONS AT
HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP/HYDRO/RIVERICE/INDEX.PHP (LOWER CASE)

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV (LOWER CASE)
ON THE INTERNET.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE REPORTS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE REGION IS
REPORTING BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AVERAGE VALUES ARE OBSERVED.

MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER...BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE.
MONITORING WELLS INDICATE  THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE VARIABLE
WITH NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CURRENT GROUND WATER CONDITIONS BASED ON A 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP://PA.WATER.USGS.GOV/MONITOR/GW/INDEX.HTML
(LOWER CASE)

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS WITHIN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARE
HOLDING AVERAGE STORAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS ARE MOST FLOOD
CONTROL RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECTED FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WITH BRIEF WARM PERIODS
AHEAD OF FREQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.  IN GENERAL WE EXPECT THE SNOW
PACK TO CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE WATER.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 10 - FEBRUARY 14 IS
FOR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 12 - FEBRUARY 18 IS FOR MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...BELOW AVERAGE.
ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING IS THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS. AHPS GENERATES
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...EXTENT AND
CONDITION OF ANY SNOW PACK...ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD... AHPS
INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE
COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY OBSERVED DURING THIS SAME
TIME PERIOD. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

SUMMARY OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FEBRUARY 5 TO FEBRUARY 19 2015: THE
REGIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

OVERVIEW:
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW AVERAGE.
SNOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
RIVER ICE...AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
GROUND WATER...BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
AHPS...AVERAGE.
OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...AVERAGE.

THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 19TH.

OTHER HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
THE STATE COLLEGE INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP
(LOWER CASE).

$$

CR



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