Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FGUS74 KHGX 212033
ESFHGX
220833-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
333 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the San Jacinto River Basin in Southeast Texas...


The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the
San Jacinto River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.


In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The San Jacinto river near Conroe has a flood
stage of 115.8 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Conroe
forecast point will rise above 104.3 feet during the next 90 days.


           Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
                  Valid 09/20/2017 - 12/19/2017


Location    fs(ft)     90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
East Fork San Jacinto River
 Cleveland   19.0     11.2 11.8 12.5 13.1 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.8 18.2
 New Caney   58.0     52.9 53.6 54.5 55.3 57.5 58.8 60.1 62.9 65.5
Caney Creek
 Splendora   18.0      9.1  9.7 10.6 12.2 13.0 14.5 15.6 17.8 21.6
Peach Creek
 Splendora   13.0     10.3 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.2 15.0 15.9 17.1 19.2
Lake Creek
 Conroe     138.0    127.1 128.6 130.2 131.8 133.2 134.7 136.6 138.6 141.3
West Fork San Jacinto River
 Conroe     115.8     97.5 100.7 101.6 102.8 104.3 105.2 107.0 111.8 117.1
 Porter      81.0     59.2 62.1 62.8 64.0 65.6 66.0 67.9 72.6 78.7
 Humble      49.3     43.1 43.1 43.3 43.5 44.4 44.9 45.8 48.5 51.3
Spring Creek
 Spring      91.5     77.9 78.5 79.3 80.4 82.1 83.8 86.6 89.5 95.9
Cypress Creek
 Westfield   82.9     71.2 73.1 75.5 76.2 78.1 82.0 83.4 86.1 91.2
San Jacinto River below Lake Houston
 Sheldon     10.0      3.2  3.4  3.9  4.2  5.0  5.8  7.1  9.9 12.8


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi!hgx
(internet address is all lower case).


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$




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