Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FGUS71 KOKX 221451
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-051500-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015


...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 2...

THIS IS THE SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A
SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING
(NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM JANUARY 27TH THROUGH THE 31ST SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM JANUARY 29TH THROUGH
FEBRUARY 4TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NYC
...LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE
STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE...ESPECIALLY RIVERS ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE
FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY                    NO ICE
LOWER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
NEWARK BAY                        NO ICE
THROGS NECK BRIDGE                NO ICE
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE          NO ICE
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT          NO ICE
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH            30% COVERAGE 2" THICKNESS
NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE          80% COVERAGE 4" THICKNESS

SNOW - SNOW DEPTH SINCE JANUARY 22ND WAS ZERO TO A TRACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THIS WAS AROUND NORMAL.
BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED
DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE 6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND 3 PERCENT
BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A FEW COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...WITH SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE..ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 5TH, 2015.

$$










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.