Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS75 KPSR 052150
ESFPSR
AZZALL-051200-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST WED MAR 5 2014

...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL OF ARIZONA...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ARIZONA RIVERS AND STREAMS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO VERY MINIMAL SNOW PACK AND DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY
OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT DURING WHAT IS NORMALLY A DRY PORTION
OF THE YEAR.

SNOWMELT ALONE RARELY RESULTS IN FLOODING WITHIN THE STATE.
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK...BELOW MEDIAN STREAMFLOW...BELOW AVERAGE
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION...AND A CLIMATE FORECAST CALLING FOR
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
ALL POINT TOWARD A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF SPRING FLOODING.

SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 1ST WERE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT ARIZONA.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ENSO NEUTRAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS...THERE IS AN
EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL THRU THE SPRING MONTHS.
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS SUGGEST THOUGH THAT WARMER
AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A REDUCTION IN RUNOFF RESPONSE DUE TO SNOWMELT AND
RAINFALL.

STREAMFLOW RATES AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WERE BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS
MOST OF ARIZONA.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IMPROVED IN EARLY MARCH WITH A WET STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SOIL MOISTURE
IN MOST AREAS HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER ANALYSIS... STILL REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE OF ARIZONA.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TO DATE...
   BELOW NORMAL
CURRENT RESERVOIR STORAGE...
   BELOW NORMAL
MONTHLY RUNOFF FORECAST...
   MUCH BELOW NORMAL
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
   EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
      ALL BUT WESTERN ARIZONA BORDER
   BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WESTERN ARIZONA BORDER

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...
   2014 WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2013 THRU FEBRUARY 2014)

   BASIN / REGION                 SEASONAL PRECIP
                                PERCENT OF AVERAGE

   UPPER GILA                          35
   SALT                                50
   LITTLE COLORADO                     60

PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE...
  OCT 1 2013 THRU FEB 28 2014...

STATION           CURRENT   AVERAGE

  COOLIDGE          1.98     4.35
  DOUGLAS            .82     3.94
  FLAGSTAFF         4.46     9.50
  GILA BEND         1.97     3.41
  JEROME            5.76     7.59
  MCNARY            3.95    11.01
  PAGE              2.23     3.07
  PAYSON            5.31     9.80
  PHOENIX           2.82     3.94
  PUNKIN CENTER     5.03     9.54
  ROOSEVELT         4.72     8.52
  SAFFORD           1.48     3.79
  TUCSON            3.06     4.19
  WICKENBURG        3.17     5.48
  WILLCOX           1.31     5.14
  WINSLOW           3.10     2.58

SNOW PACK SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
  AS REPORTED MARCH 1 2014 BY NRCS

  BASIN / REGION                   PERCENT OF
                                     MEDIAN
  SALT RIVER                            7
  VERDE RIVER                          15
  LITTLE COLORADO RIVER                 8
  SAN FRANCISCO - UPPER GILA RIVER      6
  CHUSKA MOUNTAINS                     36
  CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM                 11
  GRAND CANYON                          0
  SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS                  57
  STATEWIDE                            19

SOIL CONDITIONS...

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS FOR ARIZONA SHOWS SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE.

RESERVOIRS...
  AS OF MARCH 5 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

RESERVOIR/SYSTEM       PERCENT     VOLUME IN
                         FULL       ACRE-FT
   LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
      LYMAN LAKE          32           9650
   COLORADO RIVER
      LAKE POWELL         39        9564000    MAR 4
      LAKE MEAD           47       12405000    MAR 4
      LAKE MOHAVE         94        1700000    MAR 4
      LAKE HAVASU         95         587900    MAR 4
   BILL WILLIAMS RIVER
       ALAMO LAKE          6          59206
   SALT RIVER
       SALT SYSTEM        57        1159559
   VERDE RIVER
       VERDE SYSTEM       51         145377
   AGUA FRIA RIVER
       LAKE PLEASANT      79         681081
   GILA RIVER
       SAN CARLOS         13         116900
       PAINTED ROCK        M              M

CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS...
  AS OF MARCH 1 2014

STREAMFLOWS ALL ACROSS THE STATE ARE CURRENTLY BELOW LONG-TERM
MEDIAN FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER BASIN                   PERCENT OF LONG-TERM MEDIAN

  GILA                                 15
  SALT                                 15
  LITTLE COLORADO                      50

SPECIFIC SNOWMELT PEAK FLOW FORECASTS...

                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------      --   ---   ----   ----    ---
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
  LYMAN LK, ABV, ST. JOHNS, NR    MAR-JUN    1.1    19    1.7    .91    6.0
ZUNI RIVER
  BLACK ROCK RES, ABV             MAR-MAY   0.01     4   0.14   0.01   0.23
CHEVELON CK
  WINSLOW, NR, WILDCAT CYN, BLO   MAR-MAY    .84     6    3.6   0.32   13.9
GILA RIVER
  GILA, NR                        MAR-MAY   14.8    44     22     13     34
  VIRDEN, NR, BLUE CK, BLO        MAR-MAY   18.5    43     28   16.1     43
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
  GLENWOOD, NR                    MAR-MAY    6.1    40   13.2    5.5   15.2
  CLIFTON                         MAR-MAY     14    37     27   10.1     38
GILA RIVER
  SOLOMAN, NR, HEAD OF SAFFORD V  MAR-MAY     37    42     58     29     89
  SAN CARLOS RES, COOLIDGE DAM,   MAR-MAY   12.3    23     35    5.2     53
SALT RIVER
  ROOSEVELT, NR                   MAR-MAY     66    28    117     38    240
  ROOSEVELT, NR, GUN CK, ABV      MAR-MAY    8.7    40     21    4.2     22
VERDE RIVER
  BLO TANGLE CK, ABV HORSEHOE DA  MAR-MAY     49    46     99     35    107

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

****************************************************************************

FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION INCLUDING MORE DETAILED FORECAST
INFORMATION...BASIN CONDITION GRAPHICS...AND FORECAST EVOLUTION
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE CBRFC ONLINE WATER SUPPLY
PUBLICATION AT:

WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/WSUP/PUB2/MAP/HTML/CPUB.PHP
(ALL LOWER CASE)

NWS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...

LONG RANGE WEATHER FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY...
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE
   EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
      ALL BUT WESTERN ARIZONA BORDER
   BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WESTERN ARIZONA BORDER

$$

MCLANE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.