Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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SPOON..SANGAMON..LA MOINE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
754 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Mackinaw River
CNGI2            13.0   14.0   20.0    20   15   15   10   <5   <5
:Spoon River
LNMI2            15.0   21.0   24.0    49   46   24   24   10    9
SEVI2            22.0   25.0   30.0    40   40   21   20   <5   <5
:Sangamon River
MNTI2            13.0   17.0   20.0    56   60    6    6   <5   <5
RVTI2            23.0   26.0   29.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
PETI2            23.0   24.0   33.0    13   15   10   13   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
GREI2            16.0   17.0   20.0    18   20   16   16    7    7
:Sangamon River
OKFI2           471.0  472.9  478.5    27   29   15   18   <5   <5
CDLI2           456.6  459.0  462.0    35   38   21   21   <5   <5
:La Moine River
CLMI2            20.0   22.0   24.0    66   66   40   46   26   24
RIPI2            22.0   23.0   27.0    49   49   35   38   10   10

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0324 Z DH12 /DC1403241254/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mackinaw River
CNGI2       3.8/    5.3/    6.6/    9.2/   11.9/   15.1/   16.6
:Spoon River
LNMI2       6.4/    7.9/   11.5/   15.1/   21.9/   24.1/   25.2
SEVI2      11.5/   12.3/   15.4/   19.9/   24.4/   26.9/   28.8
:Sangamon River
MNTI2       8.9/    9.5/   11.9/   13.4/   15.0/   16.2/   17.2
RVTI2       7.7/    9.6/   14.5/   18.0/   21.7/   23.3/   25.8
PETI2       7.4/    8.7/   11.4/   15.0/   21.6/   24.4/   28.2
:Salt Creek
GREI2       4.2/    5.2/    8.1/   11.2/   14.4/   19.6/   21.4
:Sangamon River
OKFI2     459.1/  460.9/  464.2/  467.8/  471.2/  473.8/  475.6
CDLI2     446.4/  448.2/  451.7/  455.3/  458.1/  460.5/  461.9
:La Moine River
CLMI2      13.0/   13.9/   18.5/   21.7/   24.1/   25.7/   26.7
RIPI2      14.3/   15.6/   19.2/   21.9/   24.9/   27.9/   28.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0324 Z DH12 /DC1403241254/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/31/2014 - 6/29/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mackinaw River
CNGI2       1.7/    1.6/    1.4/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    0.9
:Spoon River
LNMI2       4.0/    3.8/    3.3/    3.0/    2.7/    2.5/    2.3
SEVI2       7.3/    7.1/    6.4/    6.0/    5.6/    5.2/    5.1
:Sangamon River
MNTI2       6.8/    6.6/    6.3/    5.9/    5.4/    4.9/    4.8
RVTI2       6.0/    5.5/    4.8/    4.1/    3.6/    3.3/    3.0
PETI2       7.1/    6.6/    6.2/    5.7/    5.3/    5.1/    4.9
:Salt Creek
GREI2       2.3/    2.2/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    0.9/    0.8
:Sangamon River
OKFI2     458.8/  458.1/  457.6/  457.0/  456.6/  456.2/  456.1
CDLI2     446.1/  445.4/  444.9/  444.2/  443.9/  443.5/  443.4
:La Moine River
CLMI2       4.2/    3.8/    3.5/    3.1/    3.0/    2.6/    2.5
RIPI2       4.9/    4.7/    4.4/    4.2/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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