Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
625 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /7/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH INCREASING CHANCES IN THE LONGER TERM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

AFTER A COLD START TO MARCH 2015... TEMPERATURES WERE BEGINNING TO
MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND EVEN BRIEFLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
THE POLAR JET STREAM HAD RETREATED ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER.

DURING MID MARCH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NORTHERN MAINE WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TREND LATELY HAS BEEN THE RIPENING AND MELTING
OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
AND THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION WHERE MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND A RAINFALL EVENT ON THE 14TH ASSISTED IN THE RUNOFF PROCESS.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE ALSO DECREASED IN THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
REGION.

THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE AND FAR
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON THE 14TH AND
AGAIN ON THE 17TH HAS HELPED BOLSTER THE SNOWPACK AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS. ELSEWHERE THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME SINCE EARLY MARCH.

COLDER AIR HAS MORE RECENTLY ARRIVED. THE CLIMATE TELECONNECTION
PATTERNS SHOW THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ( NAO ) INDEX AND THE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA ( PNA ) PATTERN REMAINING SLIGHTLY POSITIVE.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION HAS NOW TRANSITIONED BACK TO A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE PHASE WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR MORE CROSS POLAR FLOW
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ENSO PHASE SIGNALS A MINOR EL
NINO OCCURRING WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM. THIS TELECONNECTION PATTERN WOULD FAVOR WEAK RIDGING IN
THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FAMILIAR AND
ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH HAS PREVAILED THROUGH MOST OF THE SECOND HALF
OF WINTER 2015. THE CURRENT DIFFERENCE IS THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE.

WHILE THE SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REST OF MARCH.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON
WHERE AND WHEN JET STREAM PHASING OCCURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING ANOTHER COASTAL LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE 20TH-21ST
WHICH MAY BRING SNOW AND RAIN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. ANOTHER
DEEPER COASTAL LOW SYSTEM MAY PERHAPS FOLLOW FOR THE 25TH AND
PERHAPS A COLD FRONT AND/OR LOW PRESSURE WAVE APPROACHES ON THE 27-
28TH.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 26 MARCH-
1 APRIL 2015 CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW STILL COVERS AROUND 95 PERCENT OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA AS OF
THIS MORNING WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS HAVE DECREASED DUE TO RECENT SNOWMELT RUNOFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF NEW
YORK STATE AND IN WESTERN NEW YORK. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE WHERE SNOW
DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

...NEW YORK STATE...

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE
LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND BARE GROUND IS NOTED ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE NEW YORK CITY AREA AND LONG ISLAND. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE
FROM A TRACE UP TO 2 INCHES NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND 2
TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY AND THE CATSKILL
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR ONE FOOT AT JEWETT CITY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL UP TO 2 INCHES FROM NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND INTO THE LOWER CATSKILLS. ONE TO 4 INCH
EQUIVALENTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TACONICS AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS
TO THE HUDSON RIVER. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HEADING WEST...SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE NEARING BINGHAMTON BUT THEN DECREASE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE A TEMPORARY WARMUP OCCURRED.
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE GENESSEE VALLEY AREA. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE AGAIN TO 4 TO 12
INCHES HEADING EAST TO AUBURN AND SYRACUSE AND INTO UTICA. A
LOCALIZED SNOW DEPTH MAXIMUM RANGING FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES IS
OBSERVED IN THE FULTON AND OSWEGO AREAS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...EXCEPT 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE GENESSEE
VALLEY REGION AND THEN INCREASE TO 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND LOCALLY HIGHER APPROACHING 6 INCHES NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF SYRACUSE.

THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE AROUND NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION AND NORTH OF SYRACUSE.

HEADING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION...THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION...SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 12 TO 20 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EXCEPT LOCALLY OVER
TWO FEET ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
NEAR WATERTOWN. SNOW DEPTHS DECREASE TO 4 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY REGION NEAR MASSENA AND DECREASE FURTHER TO 1 TO 4
INCHES NEARING LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND THE VERMONT BORDER.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE
TUG HILL REGION. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
HEADING NORTH TO NEAR MASSENA AND ONE INCH OR LESS NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. THESE EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
TUG HILL REGION AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN AREAS.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

IN CONNECTICUT...SNOW DEPTHS HAVE DECREASED TO 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS AND NORTH TO HARTFORD AND STORRS. SNOW DEPTHS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND NORTHEAST
HILLS WHERE SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 18
INCHES ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AT NORFOLK.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...TO GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO
5 INCHES APPROACHING THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

IN RHODE ISLAND...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AN INCH OR LESS ALONG SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. THE
HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF FIVE INCHES WAS REPORTED AT
WOONSOCKET. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...EXCEPT NIL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...FROM WORCESTER TO BOSTON
AND SOUTH TO NORTHERN BRISTOL AND NORTHERN PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AND
NORTH UP TO THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. ALSO 10 TO 18 INCH SNOW DEPTHS
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. LOWER DEPTHS FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE PIONEER VALLEY REGION FROM NORTHHAMPTON TO
SPRINGFIELD.

THE LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM
WORCESTER EAST TO BOSTON AND SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN BRISTOL AND
NORTHERN PLYMOUTH COUNTIES NORTH TO THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS NEAR 7 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT ROWE. ELSEWHERE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THESE EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES.

...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

IN VERMONT...SNOW DEPTHS VARIED FROM A MINIMUM OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NEAR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN...4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE MID CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY FROM NEAR WOOD RIVER JUNCTION SOUTH TO THE MASSACHUSETTS
BORDER...10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREA. SNOW
DEPTHS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AREA WHILE DECREASING A BIT NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN
AT ROUSES POINT...2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE MID CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY FROM NEAR WOOD RIVER JUNCTION SOUTH TO THE MASSACHUSETTS
BORDER...4 TO 7 INCHES IN MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS FROM 9 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR EXCEPT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

FROST DEPTHS IN VERMONT RANGED FROM 19 INCHES AT BURLINGTON...12
INCHES AT NASHVILLE (JERICHO)...7 INCHES AT NEWCOMB...AND 19 INCHES
AT ISLAND POND.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW DEPTHS HAVE DECREASED A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...BUT HAVE REMAINED STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. SNOW
DEPTHS RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE UPPER MERRIMACK
RIVER REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO ONE TO TWO FEET ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE...EXCEPT 6 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS APPROACHING 9
INCHES WERE REPORTED AT THE AMMONOOSUC RIVER AT BETHLEHAM. THESE
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL NORTH TO ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH
FOR MID TO LATE MARCH.

...MAINE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW DEPTHS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL FOUND ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 40 TO 45 INCHES ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE SNOWPACK WAS REPLENISHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS BY A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ON THE 14TH AND AGAIN MORE
RECENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MAINE ON THE 17TH. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS MAINE
ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AVERAGE
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 INCHES....AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 6 TO
10 INCHES ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND RECENT WARMUP HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO OVERALL
RIPENING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS HAS BEGUN TO PRODUCE MORE RUNOFF AND
PERCOLATION/INFILTRATION OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS SUBLIMATION OF THE
SNOWPACK. THE EFFECT HAS BEEN LESS PRONOUNCED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS FROM 17 MARCH 2015 SHOW
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE PERSISTENT COLD HAS HELPED SNOW AND ICE
REMAIN INTACT AND THIS HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF THE OVERALL RUNOFF.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE ANOMALIES WERE TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL.

THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE FROM NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INTO
COASTAL MAINE WHERE SEVERAL STORMS LATE THIS WINTER HAD DUMPED SNOW
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WETTER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS.

THE LONGER TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) FROM 14 MARCH
2015 WHICH MEASURES ANTECEDENT MOISTURE STATES ON A LONGER SCALE (
WEEKS TO MONTHS ) SHOWS NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE STATES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND...BUT STILL REFLECTS THE HIGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE UNUSUALLY TO VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ARE BEING DEPICTED.

EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF
THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )

NEW YORK STATE...GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS WERE GRADUALLY TRENDING
CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE GENESSEE VALLEY IN WESTERN NEW YORK. NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTH COUNTRY AREAS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM SUNY
COBLESKILL TO ALBANY. RECORD LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE NOTED ON 17
MARCH 2015 AT SUNY COBLESKILL...SUNY PLATTSBURGH...SUNY
ALBANY...CLIFTON PARK...SEVERANCE AND WARRENSBURG. SEVERAL NEAR
RECORD LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE ALSO FOUND ACROSS THIS REGION.
RECENT TRENDS WERE INDICATING GENERALLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT DUE TO
MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK AND INCREASED RUNOFF. ONE CONCERN IS THAT
SNOW DEPTHS AND EQUIVALENTS ARE MORE LIMITED NOW AND WE MAY NEED TO
RELY ON RAINFALL THIS SPRING TO REPLENISH GROUNDWATER LEVELS BACK TO
NORMAL.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WERE BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL. CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING WITH REPLENISHMENT DUE TO
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WERE BELOW NORMAL
MAINLY DUE TO SNOW AND ICE WHICH HAVE REMAINED INTACT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT COLD. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE SOME RUNOFF HAS ALLOWED LEVELS TO RISE TO
NORMAL.

THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RECHARGE IN NEW ENGLAND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL SO WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONCERNED
ABOUT ANY WATER SUPPLY PROBLEMS HEADING INTO SPRING.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN NEW YORK STATE...MOST LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY RESERVOIR SYSTEM ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID MARCH. THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF
7 LARGE RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS AT 73.4
PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH WAS 19.3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR 18 MARCH
2015. THE RESERVOIR LEVEL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD
THROUGH THE SPRING AS LEFTOVER RECHARGE FROM SNOWMELT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL NEED TO RELY ON ADDITIONAL SPRING
RAINFALL.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN NEW ENGLAND...WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE
GENERALLY AT ADEQUATE LEVELS HEADING INTO EARLY SPRING.

THE SCITUATE RHODE ISLAND RESERVOIR WAS RUNNING 91.2 PERCENT OF
CAPACITY AS OF 18 MARCH 2015. THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR ELEVATION WAS
280.62 FEET WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR MARCH AND
AROUND 3.4 FEET BELOW THE SPILLWAY.

IN MAINE...THE LAKES IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE RUNNING AT 40.9
PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 8.9 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE HAVE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH MINOR RISES NOTED MOSTLY
DUE TO RECENT RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT. RIVER FLOWS ARE NOW AVERAGING
ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN NEW YORK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER
CATSKILLS AND LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION DUE TO COMBINED
SNOWMELT AND RECENT RAINFALL.

RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
WERE GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOME RUNOFF
FROM SNOWMELT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION...RIVER FLOWS
WERE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL MOSTLY AS PERSISTENT COLD HAS ALLOWED
SNOW AND ICE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STREAMFLOWS HAVE INCREASED TO NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LOWER FLOWS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE INCREASED FLOWS ARE MAINLY ATTRIBUTED
TO INCREASED RUNOFF DUE TO MILDER TEMPERATURES...SNOWMELT AND
RAINFALL ON THE 14TH WHICH TOTALED 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES. STREAMFLOWS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MASSACHUSETTS WERE AVERAGING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE LOWER FLOWS FOUND PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND STREAMFLOWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE..PARTS OF THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
AND IN SOUTHERN MAINE. ELSEWHERE IN VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE STREAMFLOWS WERE BELOW NORMAL PRIMARILY DUE TO ICE AND SNOW
REMAINING MOSTLY IN PLACE DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD.

THE AMOUNT OF RIVER ICE IS STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE
AREA BUT HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS OVERALL DURING THE
MID MARCH TIMEFRAME AS THE SUN ANGLE HAS INCREASED.

ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF WESTERN NEW YORK RIVERS MANY
AND STREAMS ARE STILL AFFECTED BY ICE...BUT NOTICING MORE WIDESPREAD
OPENINGS AND INCREASING FLOWS OCCURRING ACROSS THESE AREAS. HEADING
NORTH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ICE
COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND THICK WITH JUST A FEW
OPENINGS NOTED.

IN MAINE...NOTABLE ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE SAINT JOHN
RIVER AT ST. FRANCIS AND MADAWASKA AND THE ALLAGASH...THE AROOSTOOK
RIVER NEAR WASHBURN FORT FAIRFIELD AND CROUSEVILLE...THE PENOBSCOT
RIVER NEAR ORONO/VEAZIE AND ALONG THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER NEAR
MAXFIELD...ALSO THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT MADISON AND NORTH SIDNEY.

IN VERMONT...AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED AS OF MARCH 7TH AT EAST BURKE
ALONG THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PASSUMPSIC RIVER BUT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. ANOTHER ICE JAM WAS REPORTED AS OF MARCH 6TH
AT THE ESSEX JUNCTION RIVER GAGE ALONG THE WINOOSKI RIVER...BUT NO
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AT THE TIME. NO ICE MOVEMENT WAS NOTED WITHIN
THE PAST WEEK ENDING MARCH 18TH. ICE THICKNESSES WERE STILL RANGING
FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET IN MANY AREAS WITH HARD ICE NOTED ALONG THE
AUSABLE... BOUQUET...LITTLE SALMON...GREAT CHAZY AND ST REGIS
RIVERS.

IN EASTERN NEW YORK...AN ICE JAM WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE
WALKILL RIVER IN GARDNER ON MARCH 18TH. NO FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
AT THE TIME.

IN WESTERN NEW YORK...A BREAKUP ICE JAM OCCURRED ALONG THE LOWER
REACHES OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK NEAR SUNSET BAY ON THE 17TH. IN
ADDITION ANOTHER BREAKUP ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE BUFFALO CREEK
IN GARDENVILLE AND THE CAZENOVIA CREEK NEAR WEST SENECA ON THE 15TH.
ANOTHER BREAKUP ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE BUFFALO CREEK AT
EBENEZER ON THE 15TH. AN ADDITIONAL BREAKUP ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON
THE CONVERGENCE OF SILVER AND WALNUT CREEKS IN SILVER CREEK ON THE
14TH.

SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO MID TO LATE MARCH...RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HIGH SUN ANGLE AND INCREASED SOLAR
RADIATION. HOWEVER...IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE ICE COULD STILL REMAIN INTACT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE WEEKS
DUE TO THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

...CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST WITH SOME GRADUAL RUNOFF ANTICIPATED. MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND GREATER THAN NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS STILL
EXIST IN THESE AREAS. DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK...THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING IF
RAINFALL OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS NEAR NORMAL.

IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE INCLUDING THE NYC METRO AREA...LOWER
TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. STREAMFLOWS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SNOW COVER AND SNOW EQUIVALENTS HAVE
DECREASED IN THIS REGION AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A NEAR NORMAL FLOOD THREAT AS GRADUAL
RUNOFF IS ANTICIPATED.

IN WESTERN NEW YORK...SNOW DEPTHS AND EQUIVALENTS HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING MID MONTH AND DUE TO A BRIEF WARMUP. STREAMFLOWS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS MINOR RISES HAVE
OCCURRED...BUT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN NORMAL IN THIS REGION. GRADUAL RUNOFF OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE TUG HILL
REGION WE OBSERVE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AND
NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
GRADUAL RUNOFF OF THE SNOWPACK IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF WEEKS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN
REGIONS...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS EXIST. THE
SNOWPACK IS STILL FAIRLY COLD AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...WE EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIPENING OF THE SNOWPACK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE. OVERALL THE
FLOOD OUTLOOK REMAINS NEAR NORMAL.

IN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE SNOWPACK IS STILL FAIRLY COLD AND
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL. MANY LOCATIONS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO SIMILAR SNOW DEPTHS OVER THE PAST WEEK.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. WE EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
RIPENING OF THE SNOWPACK AND EVENTUAL RUNOFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS.

IN NORTHERN MAINE...SNOW DEPTHS AND EQUIVALENTS HAVE ACTUALLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE SNOWPACK REMAINS
FAIRLY COLD AND SOME GRADUAL RIPENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS DUE TO THE LATE MARCH SUN. OVERALL THE FLOOD THREAT
REMAINS NEAR NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION IN NEW
YORK AND ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ICE HAS PARTIALLY
FLUSHED OUT ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT SOME ICE BUILDUP STILL REMAINS.
THE LATE MARCH SUN WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON ERODING THE REMAINING
ICE. SO THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BREAK UP ICE JAMS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LONGER TERM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ICE STILL REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND THICK ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON ERODING THE ICE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCES FOR BREAK UP JAMS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE NEAR TERM AS THE ICE GENERALLY STILL REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BRING
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT

                  ***WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/NERFC/SFPOG.HTML***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NERFC ON THURSDAY MARCH 19TH 2015.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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