Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
917 FGUS64 KTUA 071342 ESPCO Water Supply Outlook May 7, 2024 ABRFC will be using the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point. April`s precipitation and snowfall were below normal across the Upper Arkansas and Canadian Basins. This was different than previous months across both basins, which had been relatively snowy. Much of the snowpack in the Canadian Basin and along the eastern slopes of the Front Range of southern Colorado has melted. Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 100 percent-of-average for the Arkansas River at Salida and 95 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 61, 68, and 74 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 104 percent-of-average runoff. Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 62 percent-of-average. In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is forecast to be 55 and 33 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 32 and 58 percent-of-average, respectively. Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-April) in the mountain headwaters of Colorado is near median, overall. Reports range from 74 percent-of-median at Apishipa to 136 percent-of-median at Porphyry Creek. Snowpack above Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is 102 percent-of-median snowpack. Much of the snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins has melted. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack has also mostly melted. New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is below median. Reports range from 75 percent-of-median at Tolby to 99 percent-of-median at Palo. The snowpack in the Canadian River basin is mostly melted, although there is still some snow at the highest elevations northeast of Santa Fe. Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 109 percent-of-median above Pueblo Reservoir and 84 percent-of-median below the resorvoir. The upper reservoirs are at 112 percent of last year`s total. The lower reservoirs are at 246 percent of last year`s total. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation outlooks for the nation. The outlook for May through July calls for increased chances of above normal temperatures in the Arkansas and especially the Canadian Basins. The outlook calls for equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation across mountainous areas of Colorado and increased chances of below normal precipitation across much of New Mexico. ****************************************************** * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ****************************************************** $$