Extended Streamflow Prediction
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Apr 11, 2016

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 MAR PRECIP     OCT-MAR PREC    APR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              45             90                85
ANIMAS                        60            100                80
LOWER SAN JUAN                60            145                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         MAR FLOW       OCT-MAR FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               100%            105%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF APR 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      110
VALLECITO                   148
LEMON                       107

TOTAL                       112


San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    175    81    230    195    153    135    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    285    75    375    310    240    220    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     45    83     56     50     38     33     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     52    80     66     57     43     37     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    160    76    230    180    140    120    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    155    80    210    170    131    113    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    530    72    740    600    415    380    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     39    71     58     45     33     26     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    345    83    450    390    295    260    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    810    74   1150    930    660    610   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul   18.0    78     25     21   16.0   12.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    790    72   1140    900    640    590   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     27    87     37     30   22.0   19.0     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.



CBRFC/G.Smith





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