Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 242013
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

...WINTRY MIX TONIGHT WITH RAIN FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH ORIGINALLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PLAINS EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...AS
A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S...ARE EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A PLAINS
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-250830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
413 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED SPRINKLES
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
413 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
                    UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER 2300
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH BECOMING EAST AROUND 12
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-250830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
413 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.19 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.14 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-250830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
413 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.19 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.13 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
413 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
                    UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AFTER 2300
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.14 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SR





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