Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

ECC029-171630-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California through Tuesday due to continued very warm and dry
conditions...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible stronger winds Friday night into Saturday...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through Tuesday as weak offshore flow continues to bring
very warm and dry conditions. Widespread single digit humidities
will continue across the region through Tuesday, with very poor
humidity recoveries in the mountains and foothills tonight. From
Tuesday into early Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid level
subtropical moisture from the southwest that will bring a 10 percent
chance of light showers or elevated thunderstorms to the region. If
any storms do develop over the area, the main threats would be
isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft winds due
to the very dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week, during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. In the
wake of a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for
stronger sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From late Saturday night through next Tuesday, there is the
potential for a prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot
and very  dry conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with
the strength of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on
the  upper level wind support), there will be the potential for at
least moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities
falling into the single digits and lower teens which could bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


...Discussion from Monterey...

 A pattern change is on the way, with a general cooling, moistening
trend and the possibility of wetting rains arriving this week. Winds
will begin to shift and become more onshore tonight, helping to
bring the cooler temps, moister air mass, and improved air quality
for many areas. Temperatures will  decrease a few to several degrees
each of the next 3 days,  returning to near normal temperatures by
mid week. Humidities will also increase given the cooler
temperatures and onshore flow. Some uncertainty regarding the
upcoming rains. There is a very minor (<5% chance) of elevated
convection tomorrow afternoon. Model data now indicates light
non-wetting warm sector precip arriving late morning Thursday, while
the main band of cold frontal precipitation arriving Thursday
evening through Friday morning. This system will bring wetting rains
to some areas but not others, with the best chance of wetting rains
over the North Bay mountains and hills, where fires are most active.
Much less precipitation is expected farther southward and/or at
lower elevations.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-171630-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California through Tuesday due to continued very warm and dry
conditions...

...Periods of gusty sundowner winds will bring elevated fire danger
across southern Santa Barbara county much of this week with
possible stronger winds Friday night into Saturday...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through Tuesday as weak offshore flow continues to bring
very warm and dry conditions. Widespread single digit humidities
will continue across the region through Tuesday, with very poor
humidity recoveries in the mountains and foothills tonight. From
Tuesday into early Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid level
subtropical moisture from the southwest that will bring a 10 percent
chance of light showers or elevated thunderstorms to the region. If
any storms do develop over the area, the main threats would be
isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft winds due
to the very dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week, during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. In the
wake of a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for
stronger sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From late Saturday night through next Tuesday, there is the
potential for a prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot
and very  dry conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with
the strength of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on
the  upper level wind support), there will be the potential for at
least moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities
falling into the single digits and lower teens which could bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC031-171630-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California through Tuesday due to continued very warm and dry
conditions...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through Tuesday as weak offshore flow continues to bring
very warm and dry conditions. Widespread single digit humidities
will continue across the region through Tuesday, with very poor
humidity recoveries in the mountains and foothills tonight. From
Tuesday into early Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid level
subtropical moisture from the southwest that will bring a 10 percent
chance of light showers or elevated thunderstorms to the region. If
any storms do develop over the area, the main threats would be
isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft winds due
to the very dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week, during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. In the
wake of a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for
stronger sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From late Saturday night through next Tuesday, there is the
potential for a prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot
and very  dry conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with
the strength of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on
the  upper level wind support), there will be the potential for at
least moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities
falling into the single digits and lower teens which could bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC024-171630-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California through Tuesday due to continued very warm and dry
conditions...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through Tuesday as weak offshore flow continues to bring
very warm and dry conditions. Widespread single digit humidities
will continue across the region through Tuesday, with very poor
humidity recoveries in the mountains and foothills tonight. From
Tuesday into early Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid level
subtropical moisture from the southwest that will bring a 10 percent
chance of light showers or elevated thunderstorms to the region. If
any storms do develop over the area, the main threats would be
isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft winds due
to the very dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week, during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. In the
wake of a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for
stronger sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From late Saturday night through next Tuesday, there is the
potential for a prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot
and very  dry conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with
the strength of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on
the  upper level wind support), there will be the potential for at
least moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities
falling into the single digits and lower teens which could bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC032-171630-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California through Tuesday due to continued very warm and dry
conditions...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through Tuesday as weak offshore flow continues to bring
very warm and dry conditions. Widespread single digit humidities
will continue across the region through Tuesday, with very poor
humidity recoveries in the mountains and foothills tonight. From
Tuesday into early Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid level
subtropical moisture from the southwest that will bring a 10 percent
chance of light showers or elevated thunderstorms to the region. If
any storms do develop over the area, the main threats would be
isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft winds due
to the very dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week, during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. In the
wake of a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for
stronger sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From late Saturday night through next Tuesday, there is the
potential for a prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot
and very  dry conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with
the strength of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on
the  upper level wind support), there will be the potential for at
least moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities
falling into the single digits and lower teens which could bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$

ECC030-171630-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
327 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Elevated fire weather conditions continue across Southwest
California through Tuesday due to continued very warm and dry
conditions...

...Potential for prolonged duration of Santa Ana winds, hot
temperatures and low humidities Sunday into Tuesday...

Elevated fire danger will continue across much of Southwest
California through Tuesday as weak offshore flow continues to bring
very warm and dry conditions. Widespread single digit humidities
will continue across the region through Tuesday, with very poor
humidity recoveries in the mountains and foothills tonight. From
Tuesday into early Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid level
subtropical moisture from the southwest that will bring a 10 percent
chance of light showers or elevated thunderstorms to the region. If
any storms do develop over the area, the main threats would be
isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty erratic downdraft winds due
to the very dry lower levels of the atmosphere.

Gusty sundowner winds are expected to impact southern Santa Barbara
county much of this week, during the late afternoon and nighttime
hours. Initially, on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, wind gusts
between 30 and 40 mph with humidities falling into the teens will
bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions. In the
wake of a passing upper level trough, there is the potential for
stronger sundowner winds Friday night into Saturday evening.

From late Saturday night through next Tuesday, there is the
potential for a prolonged duration of gusty Santa Ana winds with hot
and very  dry conditions. While there is still some uncertainty with
the strength of this upcoming Santa Ana event (which will depend on
the  upper level wind support), there will be the potential for at
least moderate Santa Ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities
falling into the single digits and lower teens which could bring a
return of critical fire weather conditions to portions of Southwest
California.


$$



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