Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FNUS73 KABR 240942 AAA
FWSABR

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAR CREEK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
442 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0300 CDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ABERDEEN SD.

.DISCUSSION...

***UPDATED DISCUSSION TO SPEED UP START TIME OF PRECIPITATION AND
INCLUDE MENTION OF LIGHTNING.***

A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT DIRECTION MAY WAFFLE A BIT AT TIMES TO MORE
NORTHERLY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INCLUDING LIGHTNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE WILDFIRE LOCATION BY 530 AM CDT /430 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
GENERAL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT CLOUD). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 (MODERATE).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 19 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........51  48  44  41  45  49  53  45  38  30  25  20
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP............61  64  68  73  77  80  82  85  87  88  89  89
RH..............75  67  59  51  43  39  37  32  30  28  27  26
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   9   9   11  12  11  10  10  10  9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  15  16  16  15  15  15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT CLOUD).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    0 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 11 TO 16
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........15  13  10  8   6   4   2   3   4   5   5   6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............87  83  79  75  73  71  70  69  68  66  63  62
RH..............28  32  36  43  46  51  53  55  59  63  70  75
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NW  W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..8   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   NW  W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT CLOUD).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93-98.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 (HIGH).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........7   8   9   10  11  11  12  13  14  14  15  16
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............63  67  73  79  84  87  90  92  94  95  95  94
RH..............72  63  51  44  37  32  30  27  24  23  23  24
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..8   9   10  13  14  15  16  16  16  16  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   6   8   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND GST.10  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25

$$
FORECASTER...TMT
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1600071.0/ABR
.EMAIL RACHELSIMPSON@FS.FED.US



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