Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 241155
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Washington Ditch...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
755 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
...Dry and breezy today, then increasing humidity this weekend...

Dry and warm conditions expected through Saturday as high
pressure centers offshore. Breezy Friday and Saturday afternoons,
with southwest 20-ft gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Less wind and mixing
near the coast. Scattered showers are possible across the
northern half of the area late Sunday and Sunday night as an upper
level disturbance tracks across the region. The next cold front
crosses the region Tuesday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southwest around 15 mph
                    with gusts up to 30 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2500-4100 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph...increasing to southwest 13
                    to 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............8   17  25  34  36  38  40
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................54  56  59  62  63  64  65
RH..................54  53  47  43  43  41  41
20 FT wind dir......S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......5   6   8   10  10  10  11
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  20  25  25  25  30
Mix hgt (kft).......1.9 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1
Transp wind dir.....S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....16  17  17  17  20  22  22
LVORI...............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................38  49  42  47  53  59  62
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   3   3   3   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....26  38  47  57  66  75  79

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1800-2900 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-600 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 20 mph...decreasing to 8 to 9
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............36  33  29  30  31  31  30  29  28  30  33  35
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................63  61  59  58  57  56  55  54  53  53  53  52
RH..................46  49  55  59  62  66  72  77  83  83  83  89
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......9   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....20  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......2.9 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....20  15  12  9   8   8   8   9   9   9   8   8
LVORI...............1   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   6
ADI.................46  10  5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....49  23  6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3900 ft
                    AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph...increasing to 16 to 22
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............35     34     37     39     42     41
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................53     53     62     69     73     74
RH..................86     89     67     53     46     43
20 ft wind..........SW 5   SW 4   SW 6   SW 7   SW 7   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1600   2700   3500   3800
Transport wind......SW 10  SW 15  SW 21  SW 21  SW 17  SW 17
LVORI...............5      5      1      1      1      1
ADI.................4      11     43     48     46     46
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........4      3      4      4      4      5
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      3      29     50     54     56

$$
Forecaster...SEYMOUR
Requested by...Rob Shackelford
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705122.0/AKQ
.EMAIL robert_shackelford@fws.gov


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