Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 171127
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for TA 5C/6B...US Army, DPW-ENRD-Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
627 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today at the
burn site thanks to high pressure over the region. Warm
temperatures aloft results in limited mixing, with afternoon
mixing heights reaching 2500-3000 feet. Limited mixing results in
light south to southwest winds at or below 10 mph. High pressure
slides offshore tonight as a warm front lifts through the region.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevail through the
weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south around 5 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2100-3000 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............65  48  39  25  22  20  17  19
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................38  41  46  51  52  53  54  52
RH..................46  42  37  32  32  31  31  35
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......3   4   4   5   5   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.1
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................12  14  19  21  22  24  26  21
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....9   12  14  16  18  19  21  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............22  24  27  29  32  33  34  35  26  18  9   7
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................50  48  47  46  45  44  43  42  41  41  40  40
RH..................41  46  49  53  55  60  62  67  70  73  76  76
20 FT wind dir......E   E   E   E   SE  SE  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....8   8   7   6   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.................4   4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....8   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph
                    late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 1700-2300 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph...increasing to 12 to 13
                    mph late.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............5      4      5      29     51     71
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................39     44     56     63     67     67
RH..................82     70     47     36     32     32
20 ft wind..........SW 1   SW 2   SW 3   SW 4   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.....       5      10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    500    1300   2000   2300
Transport wind......SW 2   SW 5   SW 7   SW 9   SW 10  SW 12
LVORI...............5      3      2      2      2      2
ADI.................3      5      5      16     26     24
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      1      3      11     18     24

$$
Forecaster...MINNICK
Requested by...Chris McClelland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702326.0/AKQ
.EMAIL christopher.s.mcclelland.civ@mail.mil


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