Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 181016
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for JA Cedar Hills...JA Ranch
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
416 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on January 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will build east towards the burn site today through
Friday. No precipitation is expected today through Friday with
mainly sunny skies at the burn site. No wind shifts are expected
at the burn site through Friday with mainly southerly to
southwesterly and westerly 20 foot winds around 5 to 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 1000-2500 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-26200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............15     31     45     55     57
RH..............65     37     23     16     15
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 8   SW 9   SW 10  SW 9
20 ft wind gust.9      10     12     15     12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.5    2.0    2.5    2.0
Transp wind dir.W      SW     SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.6      9      14     12     9
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10000      4      24     26     16

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 22.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............45     35     30     27     26     23
RH..............25     35     44     55     59     70
20 ft wind......S 8    S 7    SW 7   SW 8   W 7    W 7
20 ft wind gust.10     9      9      10     9      9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Transp wind dir.S      SW     SW     W      W      W
Transp wind spd.7      5      5      7      7      7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/10000      0      0      0      0      0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2000-3000 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then decreasing to 1000
                    ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph shifting to the south 13
                    to 21 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-40800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    poor to good (11000-54000 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............22     23     42     58     71     71
RH..............77     77     37     21     12     12
20 ft wind......W 6    SW 7   SW 9   SW 14  SW 14  S 14
20 ft wind gust.8      9      12     20     21     21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.1    0.5    1.0    2.5    2.0
Transp wind dir.W      W      W      SW     S      S
Transp wind spd.7      6      7      10     18     17
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10000      0      3      9      41     31

$$
Forecaster...Schneider
Requested by...Dale Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800525.0/AMA



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