Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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500
FNUS73 KAPX 141217
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Frost Pocket 4...DNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
817 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on September 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will allow for another quiet,
precipitation-free day. Skies are expected to remain mostly sunny
through this afternoon. Winds will remain very light through the
lower atmosphere, generally under 10 mph, which will lead to
poor smoke dispersion. Temperatures will once again be above
normal with afternoon highs approaching 80 degrees.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........74 at ignition...Max 81.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 2 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    4800-5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 1 to 5 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor /100 at ignition. Max...poor /100/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   9   11  11  12  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  77  79  79  80  79
RH..............55  48  45  45  45  47
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.3   2   1   1   2   2
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4
VRate/100.......1   1   0   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......3500-4700 ft AGL decreasing to 100-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 3 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor (0).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  7   6   6   12  17  23  28  34  14  14  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............77  74  71  66  64  62  60  58  57  57  57  56
RH..............50  57  71  84  87  93  96  100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 4.2 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
VRate/100.......1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...Mike Kurz
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1715850.0/APX



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