Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 201219
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for BlockHouse Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
719 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A narrow area of high pressure will cross the Great Lakes
today...generating some sun and seasonal temperatures over northern
Michigan. Another shot of cold air and snow arrives Tuesday morning and
will remain throughout the day. Southwest winds will increase tonight and
veer to more westerly during the day Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 43.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming south
                    5 to 8 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 900-1500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Vent rate...........Fair /200 at ignition. Max...fair /200/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  65  65  63  58  56  55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............36  39  40  42  43  42  41
RH..............75  70  73  67  67  70  76
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   8   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  15  15  16  16
Haines index....2   3   3   3   4   4   4
VRate/100.......2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy (45-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 35.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 24 mph.
Vent rate...........Fair to good (200-300).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53  52  51  49  48  49  51  52  51  50  49  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............40  38  38  37  37  37  37  37  37  37  37  36
RH..............79  82  82  85  85  85  85  89  89  89  89  89
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  17  18  20  21  21  21  21  21  21  22  24
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon. Chance of snow
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 42.
RH..................Min 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3600-4700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 29 mph.
Vent rate...........Good to excellent (300-1200).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........74     74     85     87     84     73
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............35     37     40     42     41     37
RH..............92     89     79     67     62     64
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 8   SW 8   W 9    W 9    W 8
20 ft wind gust.20     25     20     20     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1300   1600   3600   4600   4400
Transport wind..SW 28  SW 28  SW 23  W 25   W 26   W 25
Haines index....3      3      2      3      4      3
VRate/100.......3      3      4      9      12     11

$$
Forecaster...Tim Locker
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719012.0/APX



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