Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 191751
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for updated Robinson Creek...MDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
151 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will build toward James and Hudson Bays
through tonight. Cooler and much drier air will continue to move into
northern Michigan through tonight. Temperatures will be well short of
critical levels, but humidity levels will fall to near 20 percent for mid
and late afternoon. East to northeast winds will gust to 20 mph this
afternoon and early evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................38 percent at ignition...Min 21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise East winds 6 to 9 mph.
                    Gusts up to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3500-4000
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /500 at ignition. Max...good /500/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  55  66  71
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  57  58  57
RH..............38  26  22  21
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5
VRate/100.......5   5   5   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening becoming
                    light, then becoming east around 5 mph early in
                    the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  76  77  79  82  84  78  65  59  61  65  66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  54  52  49  46  44  43  42  41  40  39  39
RH..............22  24  29  34  40  46  51  56  61  66  72  75
20 FT wind dir..E   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   6   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...Andy Sullivan
Requested by...Don Klingler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709767.0/APX


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