National Weather Service Text Product Display

Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FNUS73 KAPX 171640
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BARREN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2000 EDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
ANY LIGHT RAIN THREAT LIKELY REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH GOOD RH RECOVERY QUICKLY DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH RH VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 PERCENT BY MORNING.
LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM BY MORNING.

JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY. EAST WINDS
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4000 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX POOR(100).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........80  79  79  78  77
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  61  62  62  63
RH..............44  41  39  39  38
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MIN 42.
RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 1
                    TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4500 FT AGL
                    DECREASING TO 200-800 FT AGL IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR (0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........77  76  76  77  78  80  81  82  83  83  83  83
WEATHER COV.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............63  64  64  61  57  54  52  50  48  46  45  43
RH..............39  40  43  48  55  61  63  66  68  73  73  79
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   5   4   3   3   3   2   2   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 200 200 100 0   0   0   0   0   0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(500).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........89     90     90     90     90     90
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............42     47     58     65     68     71
RH..............89     82     55     42     39     36
20 FT WIND......SE 3   E 6    E 7    E 7    E 8    E 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3
SMOKE DISP......0      100    200    200    300    500

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130517.SOUTH.01/APX
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
