Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 221155
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for colorado trail piles...usfs
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
455 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Burn site could be high enough to take advantage of
the better mixing and instability vs lower elevations. With enough
daytime heating winds will mix and allow for fair to good
dispersion. As the onset of the next system occurs ceilings will
fill in with light snow possible through the afternoon lowering
dispersion. Surface winds will stay light through the day with
decent speeds up top from the WSW.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers
                    until 1500.
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 29.
Min humidity........47%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 1100, then south 4-5
                    mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0600, then 3600-4600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1300, then fair until 1400, then
                    good until 1500, then fair until 1600, then
                    poor.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy until 1800, then partly
                    cloudy(35-45%).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 11.
Max humidity........77%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 4-8 mph until 2000, then
                    southwest 6-7 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1100, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%) until 1500, then mostly cloudy.
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 33.
Min humidity........33%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5-11 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL until 0700, then Below 1000 FT AGL
                    until 0900, then 3400-4400 ft AGL until 1100,
                    then 7100-8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-20 mph until 1100, then 20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1100, then
                    very good until 1200, then excellent until
                    1600, then very good.


Fire Weather Table for colorado trail piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/22-06 89 23  5 11 94  SW  2  2 3 1         1060  SW  6  4847 P
02/22-07 82 22  4 11 97  SW  2  2 3 1         1181  SW  6  5852 P
02/22-08 76 21  4 14 88  SW  2  2 3 1         1302  SW  6  6948 P
02/22-09 73 20  4 18 75  SW  2  2 3 1         2098  SW  7 12757 P
02/22-10 70 20  4 22 65 SSW  3  3 3 1         2895  SW  8 19748 P
02/22-11 67 20  4 27 53   S  3  3 3 1         3691  SW  9 27923 P
02/22-12 67 18  4 29 48 SSW  3  3 3 1         4312  SW 10 39038 P
02/22-13 66 17  3 29 47  SW  5  5 3 1         4933 SSW 13 52001  F
02/22-14 66 15  3 28 48  SW  5  5 3 1         5554   S 14 66812   G
02/22-15 66 14  3 27 51 SSW  5  5 3 1         4324 SSE 10 41018  F
02/22-16 65 12  2 25 55  SE  3  3 3 1         3094 ESE  8 21481 P
02/22-17 65 11  2 22 62   E  3  3 3 1         1864   E  5  8200 P
02/22-18 59 10  2 19 68 ESE  3  3 3 1         1622 ESE  6  8230 P
02/22-19 46  9  2 16 74   S  3  3 3 1         1380   S  7  7933 P
02/22-20 40  8  2 14 77  SW  3  3 3 1         1138 SSW  7  7310 P
02/22-21 37  7  1 13 76  SW  5  5 3 1         1217  SW 10 10545 P
02/22-22 30  6  1 13 73  SW  5  5 3 1         1295 WSW 13 14132 P
02/22-23 17  5  1 14 67  SW  6  6 2 1         1374 WSW 15 18072 P
02/23-00 18  4  1 13 68  SW  6  6 2 1         1267 WSW 15 16114 P
02/23-01 18  4  1 12 71  SW  7  7 2 1         1159  SW 14 14249 P
02/23-02 19  3  1 11 73  SW  7  7 2 1         1052  SW 14 12476 P
02/23-03 20  3  1 11 71  SW  7  7 2 1         1013  SW 13 11560 P
02/23-04 21  2  0 11 69  SW  7  7 2 1          974  SW 13 10678 P
02/23-05 22  2  0 11 66  SW  7  7 2 1          984  SW 12  9673 P
02/23-06 22  2  0 12 66  SW  6  6 2 1          965  SW 10  8751 P
02/23-07 22  2  0 13 67  SW  6  6 2 1          945  SW  9  7860 P
02/23-08 22  2  0 15 64  SW  6  6 2 1          925  SW  9  6999 P
02/23-09 22  2  0 19 54 SSW  6  6 2 1         2871  SW 14 34548 P
02/23-10 26  2  0 23 47 SSW  7  7 2 1         4817  SW 18 79477   G
02/23-11 35  8  2 27 40 SSW  8  8 2 1         6764  SW 24141785    V
02/23-12 44  8  2 30 35 SSW  9 12 2 1         7604  SW 24157322     E
02/23-13 53  8  2 32 34 SSW  9 14 3 1         8445  SW 23172397     E
02/23-14 57 13  3 33 33 SSW  9 16 3 1         9286  SW 23187010     E
02/23-15 66 13  3 32 34 SSW  9 14 3 1         7898  SW 22152746     E
02/23-16 74 13  3 30 39 SSW  9 12 4 1         6510 SSW 22120700    V
02/23-17 80 29  8 27 44 SSW  8  8 4 1         5122 SSW 21 90872   G
02/23-18 80 29  8 25 50 SSW  7  7 4 1         3889 SSW 17 58724  F
02/23-19 80 29  8 23 54 SSW  5  5 4 1         2657 SSW 14 33091 P
02/23-20 80 29  8 21 62 SSW  3  3 4 1         1424 SSW 12 13975 P
02/23-21 79 29  8 19 67  SW  3  3 4 1         1423  SW 10 13171 P
02/23-22 79 29  8 18 70   W  3  3 4 1         1421   W 10 12368 P
02/23-23 79 29  8 16 77 WNW  5  5 4 1         1420   W  9 11567 P
02/24-00 73 29  8 16 77 WNW  5  5 4 1         1408   W  8  9887 P
02/24-01 68 29  8 15 80   W  5  5 3 1         1396 WNW  7  8235 P
02/24-02 62 29  8 14 80   W  5  5 3 1         1384 WNW  6  6609 P
02/24-03 56 29  8 13 80   W  6  6 3 1         1309 WNW  7  8413 P
02/24-04 51 29  8 12 76   W  7  7 3 1         1234 WNW  9  9970 P
02/24-05 45  4  1 12 70   W  8  8 3 1         1159 WNW 12 11278 P
02/24-06 40  4  1 13 63   W  8  9 3 1         1417 WNW 15 18096 P
02/24-07 36  4  1 14 58   W  9 10 3 1         1676 WNW 18 26484 P
02/24-08 31  4  1 17 49   W  9 12 3 1         1935 WNW 22 36441 P
02/24-09 26  4  1 20 41   W 10 15 3 1         4453 WNW 24 95373   G
02/24-10 22  4  1 23 34   W 12 18 3 1         6970 WNW 28167328     E
02/24-11 17  2  0 25 30 WNW 13 22 3 1         9488 WNW 31252306     E
02/24-12 20  2  0 28 26 WNW 13 23 3 1         8721 WNW 31235828     E
02/24-13 22  2  0 29 27   W 13 23 3 1         7955 WNW 31218661     E
02/24-14 25  2  0 29 28   W 13 22 3 1         7188 WNW 32200807     E
02/24-15 28  2  0 28 29   W 13 20 3 1         6173 WNW 31163996     E
02/24-16 30  2  0 26 32   W 13 17 2 1         5159   W 29129968    V
02/24-17 33  1  0 23 36   W 12 15 2 1         4144   W 28 98723   G
02/24-18 35  1  0 20 39   W 10 12 2 1         3196   W 23 64682   G
02/24-19 39  1  0 18 42   W  8  8 2 1         2247   W 20 37435 P
02/24-20 41  1  0 16 44 WSW  7  7 2 1         1299   W 15 16983 P
02/24-21 38  1  0 14 48 WSW  7  8 2 1         1397   W 16 19609 P
02/24-22 31  1  0 14 48 WSW  8 10 2 1         1496   W 17 22424 P
02/24-23 27  2  0 13 50 WSW  9 13 2 1         1594   W 18 25427 P
02/25-00 28  2  0 12 50 WSW  9 12 2 1         1443   W 18 23237 P
02/25-01 30  2  0 12 50 WSW  8  9 2 1         1292   W 18 21000 P
02/25-02 31  2  0 11 50 WSW  8  8 2 1         1141   W 18 18716 P
02/25-03 33  2  0 10 52 WSW  8  9 3 1         1161   W 18 18541 P
02/25-04 37  2  0 10 52 WSW  9 10 3 1         1181   W 18 18348 P
02/25-05 39  4  1 11 52 WSW  9 13 3 1         1201   W 17 18138 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...Craig Brown
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802246.1/BOU


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