Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 270923
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR DELTA 10...PA. BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0403 EDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPLY TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LIGHT WIND...HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1500...THEN >25
                    STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-4700 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2700
                    FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............58  68  73  72  70  68  71  76  79  78  74  73
WEATHER COV.........                    SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                            SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................67  68  71  73  75  77  78  79  80  80  81  81
RH..................93  91  82  78  74  70  68  67  66  64  62  60
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.7 4.3 3.5 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  12  12  13  14  16  17  18  17  15  14
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   4   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900...THEN 9-15 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............66  52  45  47  51  54  58  61  63  63  63  63
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................79  77  74  73  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  65
RH..................64  68  73  75  78  82  83  85  87  89  92  94
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......9   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10              5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  14  14  14  13  13  13  13  12  9   7   5
LAL.................4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5
                    TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1600...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400-6500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............62  62  62  57  47  38  28  18  13  13  11  10
WEATHER COV.........            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................64  65  68  70  73  76  79  81  82  83  84  84
RH..................99  96  85  77  68  60  53  48  45  43  40  39
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   5   6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5       10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 4.5 5.4 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   5   6   8   12  14  15  15  14  13  12  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...FITZGERALD
REQUESTED BY...LISA LASALLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150527.DELTA.01/CTP


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