Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 231155
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Hairy Springs Black Lining...DCNR
National Weather Service State College PA
655 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on February 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will drop down from the north late today,
before retreating back to the north as a warm front late
tonight and Friday. Ahead of this boundary, the very warm
and rather moist air will produce scattered afternoon
showers and even a few thunderstorms across the region today.
The precipitation will gradually dissipate early tonight
followed by patchy fog late tonight and early Friday.

Strengthening low pressure will move northeast across
the Upper Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday.
southerly winds will freshen to 10 to 15 mph by the late
morning hours Friday, with gusts around 20 mph.

The cold front trailing south from this low will bring
a few rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers later
Friday night, and perhaps even a few strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms with gusty westerly winds and small
hail during the day Saturday.

Gusty west wind of 35 to 45 mph will develop in the wake
of the front Saturday into Saturday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Scattered
                    showers in the afternoon. Scattered
                    thunderstorms late.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300...then 9-15 strikes until
                    1600...then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southwest 5
                    to 6 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late.
Mixing height.......0-1100 ft AGL...increasing to 2200-3800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph...increasing to 13 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  64  61  61  61  61  66  77  82  80
Weather cov.....PTY PTY             SCT SCT SCT CHC CHC
Weather type....FOG FOG             RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT
LAL.............1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............52  55  58  60  63  64  66  67  67  65
RH..............83  74  69  67  60  58  56  54  56  60
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   10  10  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   8   12  15  17  17  16  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then
                    isolated showers after midnight. Patchy fog
                    after midnight.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900...then 9-15 strikes
                    until 2100...then 1-8 strikes until 2200...then
                    No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......0-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  73  76  79  81  79  76  74  75  76  76  76
Weather cov.....CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RNF RNF RNF RNF RNF
Tstm cov........SCT ISO ISO ISO
LAL.............4   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  62  61  61  60  59  59  58  57  56  55  54
RH..............65  67  70  70  72  75  75  77  80  83  83  86
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   6   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Isolated showers early in the
                    morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2600-3900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 13 mph...increasing to 16 to 24 mph
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  73  68  68  79  68  68  58  68  68  47  67
Weather cov.....ISO
Weather type....RNF
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............52  55  57  59  61  63  65  67  69  70  69  68
RH..............93  83  80  75  72  67  65  61  57  55  57  57
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5   10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   7   9   13  16  20  22  23  24  23  21
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Philip Bietsch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702680.0/CTP
.EMAIL pbietsch@PA.GOV



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