Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FNUS73 KDLH 220730
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Forest Fueled Command...Mason Fire Department
National Weather Service Duluth MN
230 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 0300 CDT on July 22.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast...
please call the National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...The main area of thunderstorms has now moved
well off to the southeast, as a new area of thunderstorms
spreads eastward into the Red River Valley. The main issues
for the rest of tonight and into the daytime hours of
Saturday will be the next chance of thunderstorms at the
fire site, and winds. Winds for the overnight hours will
be very light, and in fact may well become calm during the
remainder of the early morning hours. There has been a bit
of wind at the Washburn RAWS site, mainly due to a bit of
pressure gradient strengthening behind the departing
storm system, but the winds should decrease. The main
question is what direction those winds will switch to on
Saturday. Most of the guidance is so light that they
indicate variable wind directions, however it should
generally become south to southwest, before switching to
the west to northwest behind a front moves through this
afternoon and tonight. To further complicate the wind
forecast at this site, that area will be right on the
edge of a potential lake breeze, which could become
strengthened by thunderstorm complexes that are expected
to develop today. Below is the best estimate at this
time, but thunderstorms could throw a lot of variables
into the wind forecast today. We are in the Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms. We do expect several thunderstorms
to develop and move through today, and that will bring
wild swings in wind direction and speed as they move
through.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers early
                    in the morning. Patchy fog through the night.
                    Chance of showers 20 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........59 at incident...Min 59.
RH..................100 percent at incident...Max 100 percent.
Surface winds.......Light winds.

TIME (CDT)      3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH PTY PTY
Weather type....RNF FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10
Temp............59  59  59
RH..............100 100 100
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.0   0   0
Surface wnd gst.3   3   4

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    precipitation 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Temperature.........Max 78.
RH..................Min 73 percent.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the south
                    early in the afternoon shifting to the west
                    late in the afternoon shifting to the
                    northwest.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....PATCHY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....FOG    RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     30     50     30     30     30
Temp............59     64     72     77     78     78
RH..............100    98     90     78     73     76
Surface wind....W 0    SW 0   SW 5   S 5    S 5    NW 5
Surface wnd gst.3      3                           6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Surface winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming west
                    around 5 mph early in the morning.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40        30        20        20
Temp............78        67        60        57
RH..............75        88        96        99
Surface wind....NW 5      NW 0G3    W 0G3     W 5

$$
Forecaster...Dean P
Requested by...Eric Martin
Type of request...HAZMAT
.TAG 1713156.0/DLH
.EMAIL trenz@bayfieldcounty.org



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