Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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017
FNUS73 KDTX 191326
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Sawatski East...USFWS
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
926 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...As anticipated, a southwest wind around 10 mph has developed
in the area of the Sawatski East burn site this morning. Well-mixed
conditions will develop this afternoon supporting rapidly falling RH
and increasing wind gusts upwards of 20 mph between 1pm and 6pm.
Uncertainty has been introduced into the forecast this morning as
increasing cirrus may inhibit heating just enough to limit mixing
and subsequent wind gust potential to either slightly lower values or
to a narrower time window this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 68.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1800-3500
                    ft AGL increasing to 4100-4500 ft AGL early in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /90000 knot-ft/.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........28  21  13  6   5   3   2
Weather cov......
Weather type.....
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............62  64  66  67  68  68  67
RH...............51  38  31  25  23  23  24
Eye lvl wnd dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd..6   6   7   8   8   8   7
Eye lvl wnd gst..15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)....1.8 2.6 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.1
Transp wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd..18  20  21  21  22  23  22
VRate kt-ft/1000.30  50  60  70  90  90  80

$$
Forecaster...Clark
Requested by...Paul Charland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717487.0/DTX
.EMAIL paul_charland@fws.gov



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