Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FNUS73 KEAX 171538
FWSEAX

Spot Forecast for Mark Twain Lake...U.S.Army Corps of Engineers
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1038 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-438-0596, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions Monday will give way to an active pattern beginning
Tuesday into Wednesday. The best chance for widespread
precipitation will begin Wednesday, though isolated to scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning Tuesday
morning. This activity will likely be off and on throughout the
afternoon before becoming more widespread early Wednesday morning.
Gusty winds may accommodate any storms which develop Tuesday
afternoon. Low mixing heights Tuesday morning will increase to
3 kft during the afternoon hours while relative humidity values
remain near 60 to 80 percent. Dry conditions will return to the
area Thursday with 10 to 15 mph northerly surface winds expected
during that time.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 700-2200 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2700-4300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  73  75  78  80  77  71  68  70
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  61  64  67  69  72  75  77  77
RH..............86  81  75  73  70  66  62  58  58
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  15  15  16  17  18  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................1 percent increasing to 19 percent early in the
                    evening.
Temperature.........Min 62.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3500-3900 ft AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South around 18 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth early in the evening.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  75  75  76  76  77  77  77  76  75  75  73
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   20  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............76  74  72  70  68  67  66  66  65  65  64  63
RH..............58  62  66  71  76  78  84  84  87  84  87  90
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.5 M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind dir.S   S   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.18  18  M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....4   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the morning.
CWR.................MISSING.
Temperature.........Max 82.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 14 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph increasing to 14 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph early in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......MISSING.
Transport winds.....
Haines Index........MISSING.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  70  66  60  57  58  60  61  55  44  38  43
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............62  62  64  66  70  72  75  77  79  81  82  82
RH..............93  93  90  84  76  71  64  60  56  53  51  49
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   8   10  12  13  14  15  15  15  14
20 FT wind gust.        10  15  20  25  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind dir.M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Transp wind spd.M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M

$$
Forecaster...Welsh
Requested by...Shelly Howald
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707026.0/EAX
.EMAIL Rachelle.R.Howald@usace.army.mil



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