Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 290202
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Area 74 Rx...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
802 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.


!!! Thank you for your comments and feedback !!!


.DISCUSSION...
A backdoor front from the east has shifted the winds to east which
is resulting in a boost in low level moisture. Later tonight more moisture
will continue t0 increase brining higher chances for isolated showers
or tstms tonight and scattered thunderstorms area-wide Monday through
Wednesday. By Friday some drier air will returns to  SW New Mexico and
this could bring the risk of dry lightning to the Gila. But decent wetting
rain chances should be the main story this week for most fire weather zones.




.MEMORIAL DAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated to Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20-30 percent morning then 40-60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....72-74.
Min humidity........22-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL increasing to 13600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 15 mph shifting to the east around
                    15 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........47     47     71     71     71
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     60     60     60
LAL.............4      4      5      5      5
Temp............55     65     70     72     73
RH..............45     33     30     27     24
20 ft wind......SE 11  SE 13  SE 13  SE 13  SE 11
20 ft wind gust.20     25     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....9200   9200   13600  13600  13600
Transport wind..SE 13  S 15   S 10   S 13   SE 15
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....45-46.
Max humidity........86-89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph early in the evening becoming light,
                    then becoming east 7 to 12 mph in the late
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........88     88     88     62     62     62
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     30     30     30
LAL.............4      4      4      4      4      4
Temp............72     66     59     53     51     48
RH..............24     32     44     63     69     76
20 ft wind......SE 8   E 3    E 6    E 13   E 7    E 4
20 ft wind gust.20     5             20     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   2300   2300   900    900    900
Transport wind..E 14   NE 7   NE 7   E 15   SE 15  SE 10
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....71-73.
Min humidity........29-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL increasing to 11800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 4 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........78        78        80        80
Weather cov.....SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).40        40        50        50
LAL.............4         4         5         5
Temp............46        61        69        72
RH..............87        50        38        32
20 FT wind......SE 6G15   SE 8G15   S 10G20   S 11G20
Mix hgt (ft)....5300      5300      11800     11800
Transport wind..SE 6      SE 6      S 2       SW 3
Haines index....3         3         3         4

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...William Basye/L. Carver
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1710142.3/EPZ
.EMAIL william.basye@gmail.com


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