Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 161418
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Sticker Fire...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
918 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1800 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds are expected to persist into the early afternoon hours
before gradually becoming more broken and scattered later this
afternoon. Mixing heights will be lifting around ignition time from
around 1000-2000 feet to 3500-4200 feet by mid afternoon. Southerly
winds today will generally be sustained around 10-15 mph with gusts
to 20 mph, but transport winds will be quite a bit stronger up to
30 mph. Relative humidity values should remain above 60 percent
this afternoon, with high temperatures remaining in the lower to mid
80s. Aside from some light shower activity this morning, showers and
thunderstorms are not expected until after Midnight with the best
chances between 3 AM and 7 AM. Conditions behind these storms will
be much drier and less windy on Wednesday with relative humidity values
falling below 30 percent with winds generally remaining below 10 mph.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers in the morning.
CWR.................3 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2100 ft AGL increasing to 3500-4200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 29 mph increasing to 29 to 30 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  90  90  90  90  87  85  82  76  70  64  63
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............70  69  69  71  72  73  74  76  78  80  82  82
RH..............84  93  93  90  87  87  84  82  76  74  69  69
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  11  13  14  14  14  14  15  15  16  16
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  21  22  23  25  26  28  29  29  30  29  29
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after Midnight.
CWR.................1 percent increasing to 40 percent mainly
                    after 3 AM.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0300, then 9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms mainly after
                    3 AM.
Mixing height.......1300-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 1100-1200 ft AGL
                    early in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 29 mph decreasing to 10 to 18 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  61  64  68  71  74  77  79  81  83  85  85
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............81  80  78  76  74  72  70  70  70  69  69  68
RH..............69  72  74  79  82  84  90  90  90  93  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..16  15  15  13  12  12  11  11  10  9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.10  9   9   8   7   7   7   7   6   5   5   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.29  28  26  26  25  24  23  21  18  16  13  10
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the morning.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 4 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0700, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1300, then No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the morning.
Mixing height.......1000-2300 ft AGL increasing to 6800-7100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 0 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  86  76  66  56  46  35  25  21  17  13  14
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  67  68  71  74  77  79  82  84  85  86  88
RH..............93  90  84  71  59  48  41  34  31  29  28  27
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.                                        10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                                        10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.3 4.6 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.1 6.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   2   1   0   0
Haines index....3   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6

$$
Forecaster...00
Requested by...Texas A&M Forest Service
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709548.1/EWX
.EMAIL wjackson@tfs.tamu.edu



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